Assuming PlayaB a 3PTBB Winner @ 10NL... - Beginning Poker Questions

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Assuming PlayaB a 3PTBB Winner @ 10NL...

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03-08-2011 , 06:41 PM

SawyerAnthony

adept

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,038

What is the probability of him going on a 15 BI downswing over 50K/100K hands..?

Thanks!

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03-08-2011 , 07:09 PM

Symbaloo

newbie

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 21

i don't know what the probability is, but i think that the lower the winrate is, the more likely is to hit some pretty big downswings. Theres a variance simulator somewhere..google it and mess around with it.

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03-08-2011 , 07:11 PM

wisdommaster1

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 2,454

i would say pretty unlikely assuming they only playing when they are playing their A game. any good player good easily drop more buyins if they play while tilted or not playing their best

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03-08-2011 , 07:32 PM

jackie nguyen

old hand

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 1,340

depends, if you beat a game for 3ptbb/100 by playing a high variance style, you're gonna experience bigger swings more often than if you beat a soft, passive game for the same winrate

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03-08-2011 , 07:51 PM

SawyerAnthony

adept

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,038

Thanks guys, but I'd like the numeric %, which I know does exist. I just couldn't find it.

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03-08-2011 , 07:55 PM

Liquid sunshine

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 61

http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tool...nce_simulator/

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03-08-2011 , 08:37 PM

jackie nguyen

old hand

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 1,340

Quote:

Originally Posted by SawyerAnthony

Thanks guys, but I'd like the numeric %, which I know does exist. I just couldn't find it.

only if you know his standard deviation (did you even read my post?)

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