At 200bb effective I'm thinking it's quite possible as vil can't get stacks in just by calling down and betting if checked to and needs something to balance his flop bluff raising range. It also makes it unlikely a strong player is 4-betting TT or QQ pre so he would have more sets in his range than with 100bb effective stacks. This also means vil will have a lot more busted draws or worse 2-pair in his range too that is betting this river if checked to.

Cheers mang. Dunno how often I'll be playing though, have larger priorities than microstakes poker.

Then come play with the big boys

Could you please explain more, why he shouldn't raise set here ?

Wow im such a ******, thought it was AT2. Yeah im completely wrong disregard what i said.

Raising sets some frequency is fine on that board given stack depth.

Yeah, I get RSI/carpal tunnel pretty badly. Sometimes my whole arm goes really weak and other times it just aches all day.
I've tried using a trackball mouse instead, but I still get the same problem and I don't even put in much volume. I'm a weed.

I played 7 hours yesterday (with breaks) and after 6 hours my arm started to feel numb.
That's one reason to aim higher, no need to play for so long hours to reach your profit goals.

Just read your whole march thread, looking forward to getting involved! Mine is around 500$ online having been built up from 150$ or so.. Playing 10nl although have been profitable at 25nl in the shots ive taken.

Never folding the first AQ hand. Villain could easily be value betting TT, bluffing a missed flush draw, maybe going for think value with QT.

h1: Think we can bet AQ OTR, also if we choose to go for a bit smaller sizing with our betting range like 50-70%PSB we can def go for vbet. Never folding to a bet if we check as V still has all his missed FD's that he will be betting quite frequently here.

Yeah after alot of thinking about the AQ hand I realise it was a bad fold and I probably should have fired the river aswell or atleast check called. There are alot of hands I beat that would probably go for value on the river.

What do guys do when you're running bad? I'm running so bad right now I can't even save money. I'm constantly being 3bet, getting terrible boards with good hands, people keep raising my cbets on dry boards, and my hands become second best on the turn or river pretty often. Fish are never this aggressive except when they have hands.

How do you guys save yourself from bleeding money during a bad run? I feel like the best thing to do is to stick to ABC poker, but eventually you start to feel like people are exploiting at you so I try to play back which is probably a mistake.

Its really painfull when you run bad in full ring because its the most boring experience , there is a lot of variance , you have to be patient and you will run good eventually , you cannot save yourself from bleeding money , it will happen because you are supposed to lose money aswell , there is not an order in which you will lose this money , you may drop 3 buy ins at 800 hands then win 4 buy ins at 200 hands. Variance do crazy things.

Of course the more you are developing reads and exploit them , the less this will happen , also its not unlikely that you have leaks , you may underplay a hand or not bluffing enough combos (barreling , 3betting) you have to always evaluate your game and confirm that you are running bad.

Well

Easiest adjustment is to open less. Tougher adjustment is to play back, meaning 4-betting and calling wider.
Be analytical and realize what cards are the worst. "This is THE worst runout". "9 and K are THE worst cards, since they complete OESD". There are some cards we will lose our money on. If there's 2 bad cards (4 + 4), then there's 37 good cards.
I take a note. To adjust further, you can start to call down lighter WITH NOTES. Not without notes!
What I said about worst cards. We don't have to win every pot. This is why we put in more volume.
Then they are easy to play against Just figure out HOW aggressive they are. In WHAT way? Fish with XR 2% has the set/2p always. Fish with 15% xr is check raising top pairs and draws.
Play ABC poker until you have started to win again. Book more winnings playing ABC poker. Then we can try out fancy lines again I don't 5-bet bluff or anything like that if I don't feel confident enough.
You need to play back. You also have to figure out which opponents are exploiting you. Flopping a set is not exploiting.
There's people who are aggressive and exploit you, then there's the people who don't, they just run good for a while.
You can break this down into numbers. Like I said 2% XR is always the nuts, 15% XR is not very honest.

Hopefully that helps

Laptop stolen, aint gonna happen!

been clicking buttons last 4 days, watch youtube in the background, and reading articles, posting on 2p2 while 4+ tabling HU

its not god, I dunno how to stop

Love how the laptop being stolen is stopping you gaining 3 pounds



My months going ok. Just about rolled to play $15 STTs. Currently a 15% roi over 92 games.

Haha, yeop, not related. Couldnt quote it correctly.

Poker goals: Aint gonna happen.

Non poker: Still eating and going to the gym, but want to weigh in at the end of the month.

Ship turn? Villain is a reg who stations big hands, doesn't hero fold.
He bet very quickly and that got me worried.
I think we should ship, can get called by worse two pair and if they had a set it's obviously a cooler. If one had a flush draw, or some combo draw, we don't really hate denying their equity.
Typical mistake that you make when you haven't played in a while, not fastplaying enough. On the other hand the board texture is not that drawy, we would also give BB a chance to do something unusual, so I don't hate flatting. UTG also has tendencies to bluff rivers.

Microgaming - €2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 133.77 BB (VPIP: 30.12, PFR: 22.61, 3Bet Preflop: 12.29, Hands: 1,413)
UTG: 267.69 BB (VPIP: 24.56, PFR: 19.89, 3Bet Preflop: 8.84, Hands: 8,097)
MP: 384.61 BB (VPIP: 26.53, PFR: 10.20, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 49)
CO: 108.63 BB (VPIP: 28.39, PFR: 21.80, 3Bet Preflop: 7.06, Hands: 1,640)
Hero (BTN): 100 BB
SB: 124.4 BB (VPIP: 66.45, PFR: 9.17, 3Bet Preflop: 5.14, Hands: 472)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A K

UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (9.5 BB, 3 players) 5 K A
BB checks, UTG bets 7 BB, Hero calls 7 BB, BB calls 7 BB

Turn: (30.5 BB, 3 players) 6
BB checks, UTG bets 20 BB, Hero calls 20 BB, fold

River: (70.5 BB, 2 players) J
UTG checks, Hero checks



also thoughts on this one? how much bluffs can they have? I do think that people are probe betting more at 200nl. When we xb we don't really have much, except maybe TT 88 77 going for pot control.
If I were to bet this for 2/3, I would need ~40% fold equity, gut-shot reduces that to about 30%. I wonder how this works with bluff raising?

Microgaming - €2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 29.15 BB (VPIP: 31.44, PFR: 18.73, 3Bet Preflop: 7.29, Hands: 34,568)
SB: 115 BB (VPIP: 31.91, PFR: 19.18, 3Bet Preflop: 7.70, Hands: 34,147)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 31.95, PFR: 18.59, 3Bet Preflop: 7.46, Hands: 31,075)
UTG: 108.88 BB (VPIP: 31.56, PFR: 18.92, 3Bet Preflop: 7.15, Hands: 29,900)
Hero (MP): 100 BB
CO: 349.41 BB (VPIP: 31.73, PFR: 19.35, 3Bet Preflop: 7.48, Hands: 30,854)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 5 4

fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, fold

Flop: (7 BB, 2 players) J 9 6
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (7 BB, 2 players) 2
SB bets 5 BB, Hero raises to 14 BB, SB calls 9 BB

River: (35 BB, 2 players) 6
SB checks, Hero checks

I think you can bet AK on the river. Villain would normally fire the third barrel with QTss, sets and AK/AJ, I would think. His hand looks exactly like AQ to me, and that's gotta be a sigh-call for him. I think his line with AT is pretty bad tbh. It doesn't seem strong enough to v-bet 2 streets OOP multiway.

With 54s, I don't like your turn raise much. The deuce is such a blank, so you're repping a slowplayed top set (or a turned 2-outer) and not much else, as you'd usually only check back the flop with one pair or total air. Villain has Jx or TT/9x pretty often, and he seems a bit too loose/passive to fold those. River looks like a bad card to bluff, as there can't be much in villain's turn bet-call range that would fold when the board pairs, except for QT/87 and maybe stuff like KT. Basically, if you're checking back the flop because 54s is in your "give up range", I think you should stick with that plan and fold the turn.

Sorry those are the overall stats for the anonymous players in h2.
He was unknown. Will read your comments after this session.

I'm gonna never fold vs fish again lol

Microgaming - €1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 65.35 BB
SB: 100 BB
BB: 56.48 BB
UTG: 70.69 BB
Hero (CO): 104.05 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J Q

UTG calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 3 BB, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, BB calls 2 BB, UTG calls 2 BB

Flop: (12.5 BB, 4 players) J 8 7
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: (12.5 BB, 4 players) 2
BB bets 6.25 BB, UTG calls 6.25 BB, Hero calls 6.25 BB, fold

River: (31.25 BB, 3 players) 8
BB bets 15.63 BB, fold, Hero calls 15.63 BB

BB shows 2 6 (Two Pair, Eights and Twos)
(Pre 35%, Flop 9%, Turn 11%)
Hero shows J Q (Two Pair, Jacks and Eights)
(Pre 65%, Flop 91%, Turn 89%)
Hero wins 59.51 BB

Don't x back and raise with anything in h2.

@birdayy yeah could trap some players there with high probe bet %.

@Arty I don't like villains play either w/ AT. That's my read on him that he overplays those kind of hands. I have no clue why. Thin vbet seems good vs him, but only on my good days. On a bad day there's nothing worse than bet/folding rivers. Combination wise it seems like an easy hand to solve.


Is this too weaktight?
I wouldn't expect Kx to bet or any villain to try to make me fold Ax. He bet river quite quickly.
I think bluffing here would be suicidal. AJ I'm calling but unsure about this one. I have no reads on this reg and stats don't tell anything about his tendencies either. I'm also unsure how villain would play like A2s-A5s.
I hate my line because I'm not giving him any credits for a bluff, or him overplaying smaller ace. Blocker wise I would only bluff QT, QJ and JT.
Against this range we would have a breakeven call. I really don't hate my play tbh vs unknown reg, but vs aggro player we would have to call right?


Microgaming - €2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 108.55 BB (VPIP: 28.34, PFR: 22.72, 3Bet Preflop: 8.56, Hands: 874)
Hero (BTN): 192 BB
SB: 100 BB (VPIP: 31, PFR: 23, 3Bet Preflop: 10.8, Hands: 588)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T A

Hero raises to 2 BB, SB raises to 8 BB, fold, Hero calls 6 BB

Flop: (17 BB, 2 players) A 2 K
SB bets 11 BB, Hero calls 11 BB

Turn: (39 BB, 2 players) A
SB bets 22.5 BB, Hero calls 22.5 BB

River: (84 BB, 2 players) 4
SB bets 58.5 BB and is all-in, fold



Edit: there were FR stats on that imported hand, fixed his stats for 6-max.

The thing is that they should have a high probe%, when u xb there and turn is a 2. If the pot was headsup, I think V should be betting close to 100% of his air there and there is nothing you can do to prevent it from being +EV.

@ AThh hand.

At first I was like WTF are you doing, but looking it a bit more it's def a much closer than it looks, esp if V isn't betting low AXs OTF, which is a bit meh due to range advantage, think V could go for like 80-90% cbet frequency here. Either V XC:s low AX and you have range advantage OTT, or he has huge cbet % and bets all Axs with bunch of air, either way you should have advantage OTT. So this makes his turn bet very strong (if we assume he has brainz). But then we go into the blocker effects and I have no idea how this works.

Still don't think we want to fold this.

Did some equilab on that AT hand.

Assume you open 50% OTB and defend 25% (so fold to 3bet of 50%). You should 4bet QQ+/AK and so bluffs so let's say you call 18%.

18% range: JJ-22, AQs-A2s, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, AQo-ATo, KJo+, QJo (236 combinations).

Quick and dirty calculation - you fold 35% on each street (to deny him outright profit). That means we go to the turn with 153 combinations, and get to the river with 100 combinations, and call river with 65 combinations.

65 combinations would be: 22, AQs-A9s, A4s, A2s, AQo-ATo BUT this doesn't account for the significant card removal effects in this hand. So it seems likely you have to call with an absolute boatload of Ax in reality.

Just worked it out...

22 (3 combinations)
AQ-AT (24 combinations)
A2s (2 combinations)
A4s (2 combinations)
A9-A5s (10 combinations - 2 combinations of each)
A3s (2 combinations)

So that's 43 combinations and represents all our Ax we called with pre, so even calling with all Ax isn't enough of a defence it seems (unless I've screwed it up).

One thing is for certain though, we definitely need to call with AT (and indeed, any ace).