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Am i ever good enough here to make this a +EV play? (Live gurus) Am i ever good enough here to make this a +EV play? (Live gurus)

12-12-2015 , 11:48 PM
Pre note:I made ranges for all positions tonight and decided to make a small adjusment during the play when i noticed this guy. VERYL LOOSE PASSIVE FISH.
I'm playing live NL $0.5/1 (rather estimates since NOK currency is fked up, in NOK it's 5/10 NOK) full ring, and i have been observing that he check calls all the way down to just fold with small pairs and donk bet-fold just spew basically. He once had the nuts and he check called flop- check raised turn- bet river and won a nice pot.

I'm in the cutoff right before the button and villain who is UTG1 limped, MP1 limps, LP folds to me and i look down at

A4

I go ahead and raise to about $8 with $100 total starting stack(100bb). SB calls (major fish check folds almost every flop, unless he hits), Bb folds and villain in UTG+1 calls.

Flop: A8Q

Villain in UTG+1 checks and we decide to bet 75% $18 into the pot leaving behind $74 (not sure if the big bet here is a mistake?)

SB folds. Heads up UTG+1 calls $18.

Turn: A

Villain checks.
Hero bets $24 - 50$ behind.

Villain waits and flat calls.

River: 3

Villain checks? Does this cap his range to alot of missed gutters/Qx- 66-77-99's?

HERO makes a thin value of $20 because he don't get called too often by worse hands other then Qx, some pockets which i thought was better then a shove based on villain calling with alot of second hands.

VILLAIN SHOVES and puts us in for rest.

Getting 4:1 to call here are we ever good here vs this kind of villain, maybe he rivered 3's full?

Hero calls

Villain shows 88

Is this guy a fish or did we just get outplayed?

Thanks for the input.
Am i ever good enough here to make this a +EV play? (Live gurus) Quote
12-13-2015 , 01:14 AM
You shouldn't post results, it alters the responses you get. Based on what you wrote, I don't see you with AA, QQ or AQ and villain likely didn't either.
Am i ever good enough here to make this a +EV play? (Live gurus) Quote
12-13-2015 , 05:42 AM
What makes you think villain is a fish?
Am i ever good enough here to make this a +EV play? (Live gurus) Quote
12-13-2015 , 09:11 AM
There are two lessons to be drawn from this hand. The first is the difference between sets and trips. Sets are hidden. You didn't know he had a set until he showed it to you. On the other hand, a lot of people raise with Ax in their hand. When the second ace comes, he knows you likely have trips when you keep firing. Therefore, he just isn't going to have Qx or third pair and call the turn. His hesitation is on whether to raise now or on the river.

The second lesson is about counterfeiting your hand. On the turn, you got excited because your hand in absolute terms significantly improved. Trips is better than TP. The reality is your hand didn't in relative terms. All the second pair or worse hands you were beating the flop you're still beating. You're now playing with just one card because your "4" no longer plays (A-A-A-Q-8). A7, A6, and A5 are now splitting with you instead of you losing to them. However, you're no longer beating A2 and A3 either. I'm confident you thought the "3" on the river was a safe card, but in reality it took one hand you were splitting with and turned it into a loser.

These are the reasons A4s isn't in my baseline playing range. By the river, it is a RIO hand much of the time. If you're good, nobody will play and you earn just a little. If you're not, you're going to lose a lot of money. There's lots of other hands that I can make more money.

As a side note, the villain is a fish. You should have check behind and he would have got nothing. Only because you played this badly did he get paid off.
Am i ever good enough here to make this a +EV play? (Live gurus) Quote
12-13-2015 , 11:34 AM
Check at least one street. It doesn't really matter which. I usually check the flop, but if this guy is stationy and has a lot of draws in his range then I'd bet it for value, planning to check back all turns. If you bet the flop and turn, you have to check back the river.
You shouldn't really be playing for stacks with A4s unless you make a straight or better. Overplaying trips is a common mistake among beginners. If you get a lot of action on AAxxx boards and you don't have a boat, say goodbye to your buyin.

FWIW, I like villain's post-flop line to some extent, but in soft games like this one sounds, he probably does better in the long run by check-raising the flop, as he can't expect you to triple off every time, so he needs to steal the initiative if he wants to build a big pot vs Ax.
Am i ever good enough here to make this a +EV play? (Live gurus) Quote
12-13-2015 , 11:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10
There are two lessons to be drawn from this hand. The first is the difference between sets and trips. Sets are hidden. You didn't know he had a set until he showed it to you. On the other hand, a lot of people raise with Ax in their hand. When the second ace comes, he knows you likely have trips when you keep firing. Therefore, he just isn't going to have Qx or third pair and call the turn. His hesitation is on whether to raise now or on the river.

The second lesson is about counterfeiting your hand. On the turn, you got excited because your hand in absolute terms significantly improved. Trips is better than TP. The reality is your hand didn't in relative terms. All the second pair or worse hands you were beating the flop you're still beating. You're now playing with just one card because your "4" no longer plays (A-A-A-Q-8). A7, A6, and A5 are now splitting with you instead of you losing to them. However, you're no longer beating A2 and A3 either. I'm confident you thought the "3" on the river was a safe card, but in reality it took one hand you were splitting with and turned it into a loser.

These are the reasons A4s isn't in my baseline playing range. By the river, it is a RIO hand much of the time. If you're good, nobody will play and you earn just a little. If you're not, you're going to lose a lot of money. There's lots of other hands that I can make more money.

As a side note, the villain is a fish. You should have check behind and he would have got nothing. Only because you played this badly did he get paid off.
Great post m8.

I think the information i had based on earlier hands affected me vs this villian which made me adjust in a wrong way and eventually lose. Will read this over and over again
Am i ever good enough here to make this a +EV play? (Live gurus) Quote
12-13-2015 , 11:01 PM
Grunch:

Pre: I'm not raising pre, let's just see a cheap flop with huge implied odds. Fat value betting only occurs when we flop 2 pairs or better.

Flop: I check here, no way do I start building a big pot with this hand. I want to take fish to value town, not drive myself there.

Turn: AP I check because I'm not sure what's worse that's still calling, obviously if I checked flop like I wanted to, I'm betting now.

River: Making yourself pot committed screws up thin betting. You need to make a bet that you can fold when you figure you'll only get raised by better. So you should check here. You should also check because villain shouldn't really have worse by now.
Am i ever good enough here to make this a +EV play? (Live gurus) Quote
12-15-2015 , 06:14 AM
I don't think you played the hand well at all.

Here are my tips:

1. Don't be so quick to categorize your opponents as "fish". You really don't know unless you have thousands of hands on them. While you interpret him being passive and "check calling all the way", he thinks he's playing "tricky, trappy" poker. In his mind, he probably thinks you're an aggro fish who plays A4s like the nuts. Not saying you are or you did, just don't get too carried away with "reads" on other players, especially at live games where you have very few hands and no computerized memory,

2. I wouldn't play A4 to start with. You're just asking for this kind of trouble. Virtually any ace had you beat, as well as 88 and QQ.

3. Considering your read was a "passive fish" and he wasn't hesitating at all when you're betting and ends up shoving, you're beat.
Am i ever good enough here to make this a +EV play? (Live gurus) Quote
12-15-2015 , 07:43 AM
you can categorize someone as a fish over 1 hand
Am i ever good enough here to make this a +EV play? (Live gurus) Quote
12-15-2015 , 08:32 AM
I had this as 88 or AQ, but then I remembered your comment in the post.

"V c/r Turn 'with nuts'" ... V didn't have nuts on this Turn, but paused to consider the raise. Perhaps he took the time to figure out the risk of letting you see anther card and suck out at your own price, not his. This puts him on Ax/88 and very few (if any) Qx.

Why are you 'thin' value betting here? The pot is 110+ and you have 'only' 50 behind. Even if you shove your V is getting 3 to 1 on a call. You said yourself that you wont get called by worse very often ... why bet? Now you can say you bet with the intention of calling all raises, that's fine.

You 'caps' the V SHOVE, like it was a surprise. No surprise, this is a classic low limit move (perceived trapping). He 'only' had to put in 30 more into (now) 150. This is a bad move on his part since he could've won 0 more dollars unless he had some great read on you for Ax ... and a tendency to bet.

I think the best spots for you to look at here are ...
1) You say hes a passive fish ... thats fine ... your description fits as a caller 'only' without the nuts
2) A very scary card hit the Turn and he still called ... after a pause. This is not a passive players move without a pretty good hand. There are no 'reasonable draws'
3) Once you get to the River, you 'know' that your hand is weak and yet you bet out 'for value' against Qx hands, but are willing to call it off against the rest of his range that beats you.
4) You change your mind significantly by even suggesting V has 33. No passive player would ever end up at this River with 33 unless your image is so bad and you are also giving off live tells that you didn't hit the board ... and even that would be a stretch. GL
Am i ever good enough here to make this a +EV play? (Live gurus) Quote

      
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