This is my results graph from HM2 since i started trying cash games. its on 10NL (0,05/0,10).



Can someone explain to me what that line of all-in EV means ? Is that the pre-flop EV of the hands that go into showdown or something ? But it seems also to follow the red line. But then the hands are mucked, so no information then i assume.

Is there any value in that All-in EV information ?

I already read that i shouldn't be botherd about the negative red line because that has to do with playing style. Do you agree ?

Allin EV is the same as green line, except with luck removed in allin situations. So if you get it allin with 60% equity, your line will go up some whether you win or lose, and if you get it in with 20% equity, your line will go down a bunch whether you win or lose. Basically, it removes an element of luck included in your green line, so it's more reliable.

Whether or not you want to worry about your redline is up to you.

So it's the EV when you one goes all-in ? i dont feel i go all-in that much :-)

Or does it follow the green line and only adjusts for all-in situations ?

If that's the case, i'm an even more terrible player then i thought haha.

Let's say you go all in preflop with AA and end up going against KK 100bb effective for a 200bb pot. You have 82% equity with AA vs KK so if you win your green line goes up 100bb and EV line goes up 82bb. If you lose your green line goes down 100bb, but the EV line still goes up 82bb

ah, i understand.

So it follows the green line adjusting for all-in equity when there is an all-in situation.

So i'm lucky so far. pppfff.

Yeah, you've run above EV in all in situations so far, but that's still a small sample and it doesn't predict anything about the future. A few bad beats would turn it the other way around. Being 4 or 5 BI above AIEV over 20k hands is fairly rare, but you might be several dozen above or below after 100k.
On the graph, the orange and green lines run 'parallel' except when there's an all in and call. I can see you had a couple of suckouts just after 15000 hands and a huge one at the end of your last session. That's why the lines deviated further apart at those points.

So green line is with variance and orange line is without variance.
If green is higher then orange then you run above expectation and if green is lower then orange then you run lower then expectation.

Does green line only account for all-in spots or is it just talking in general how much $ was net won including all-in spots?

The green line are my general (net) winnings.

yes i was behind in several all-in situations. But won by river full-house.
Pokervariance is hard to cope with. Because it makes it hard to know if my pokergame is any good.
(plus rake is just killing)

Well if you do off-table analysis and analyze your spots meticulously you'll know if you are making profitable decisions or just running like jesus.

yes good point.

I keep a record of all my bad calls and plays.
I this sample if i would not make any mistakes (and that isn't about the outcome, but mistake likes not folding trips to an obvious flush or not folding AA against better hand, slowplaying, stupid bluffs etc) i would have had an winrate of 11bb/100.
(actual is 4bb/100 with luck, 2bb/100 without)
(for the first 15.000 hands that was 15 bb/100)

So if i would play my style without any mistakes (and accounting for EV-luck in the graph) i would have had a winning rate of 11bb/100.

At the moment i think my first priority is to learn to fold. After that, i can look for more leaks i guess.
But the learning curve and time can be ridiculouss hahaha.

Because even if i play my style perfectly, my actual winrate can still be like 3bb/100 in stead of 11 because of luck and next 25.000 hands will have a huge down swing.
That uncertainty is difficult.

Especially because deep down i believe only the top 1% is a winning player because of the rake. (which is 4bb/100)

There's a ton of variance in hands where you don't get all in. (Because there's a lot of luck involved in poker, ldo.) Many cashgame players won't get all in more than once every 150 hands or so, and obviously all kinds of crazy stuff happens in the intervening period.
The orange line is typically a "more accurate" marker of your skill level or "theoretical winrate" though.

Fwiw, these two statements are incompatible. Math pls.

Also OP, roughly the top 15% of players are long-term marginal winners or better I believe. But you shouldn't worry about things like this, just play more hands (you need sample) and study off the table to improve.

15% , yes you believe. Everybody wants to believe. But nobody has really any numbers on it. Of course i hope you're right.

Also i also believe you're right. The more hands you play the closer narrower the 95% confidence interval becomes relatively.

But at the moment i'm 7 BI above my EV. So even more rare ;-)
But that means i already know a huge downswing is coming. That sucks !
Anyone also experienced the same ?

PS i decided to lighty be more agressive post-flop to get the red line up.