With aces and getting extreme pressure on a low dry board, do I just default-fold on the turn?
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 92
NL10:
I had AA on the button and 3-bet 10BB to hijack's 4BB open-raise. He called. 2-way pot.
Flop 842r: villain bet 3/4 pot which really surprised me after my 3-bet (maybe he had KK-99; certainly not 2-pair or low gutshots or 53s OESD draw with his big preflop raise)
Turn 5: villain double-barreled 3/4 pot again (A3s or 76s for straights? Both unlikely due to his big bets both preflop and flop with only gutshots).
So has a set, right? But how to you give up aces on such a low dry flop?
He stacked me on the river with a flopped 88 for a set.
I guess I should have default-folded to his 3/4 pot double-barrel (Balugas theorem?) But it's so hard to fold aces on a such a low dry board when there's no 2-pair threats and unlikely gutshots.
should be called sevenfour
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 75,201
Stack sizes are important here
Think you can 3b larger pre given the size of his open, will make future decisions easier
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 306
Without stats on villain and how much of a banana he is, this isn't an easy fold...
On the one side, there are really no draws on this board texture so villains aggression leans towards JJ+ or 88.
What were stack sizes? If either you, or him was shallow stacked > 50bb, then 44 and 22 is even less likely.
With stats you could see if player tends to cbet flop/turn/river, and you can kinda assume how crazy he will overplay JJ+ on low rainbow board, OOP facing a 3bet.
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 3,534
I read his donk bet on the flop as weak, unless he is a real straight forward, newish player. Definitely raise on the flop. If he calls or three bets, I have to give him credit for a set at that point.
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 8,737
If you don't call down with aces here what hands do you have that are better? Unless you 3bet 88 here which you probably shouldn't AA is your best possible hand and you should only fold if you have very good reasons to do so. If you fold AA then you fold literally 100% of your hands so maybe that's not such a good idea.
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 13,256
Never folding. I'm tempted to just raise-call off on the flop, because villain has JJ/TT/99 a lot, and he's not folding, but he'll slow down if an overcard comes on the turn or river.
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 10,700
Stack sizes and reads, JFC.
That said, probably not folding unless hand history is more butchered than it seems. In lol live poker players will often take a silly aggressive line with TPTK or weakest possible overpair.
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 10,700
Also, join date 2008? Learn to write out a hand history.
Join Date: May 2015
Posts: 35
I mean we're only losing to 88 and 76s, A3s if he can somehow have that hand - but I doubt it, and if he can have that hand, he can also have many more - A2s, A4s, A5s - so I think we should stick to thinking he can only have 88/76s that's beating us here, if he's even opening 76s to 4x in the HJ. Of course if he's only ever donking into us with a hand that beats us - so 88, or 76s so he can have a single bluff too on this board - we're better off folding 100% of the time we get donked and double barreled to on this board - I don't think that will be the case, though the fact the flop is rainbow does kind of suck. Still he can have 99-KK on the flop, not sure about the turn, thats where it gets kind of tricky tbh especially if against a recreational player. Still, don't think we can fold, even though he's double barrel donking?
