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AA vs KK AA vs KK

05-17-2020 , 07:10 AM
KK vs AA in 6max happens 1 in 9768 times i think.

How many hands we need to play in order the times we have KK vs AA to be equal with the times we have AA vs KK ?

It seems to me you have to be lucky and there is not a practical way to beat the variance in this situation. Not to mention the times when our AA lose to KK more often that it should.

Last edited by 1llegAl; 05-17-2020 at 07:24 AM.
AA vs KK Quote
05-17-2020 , 07:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1llegAl
KK vs AA in 6max happens 1 in 9768 times i think.

How many hands we need to play in order the times we have KK vs AA to be equal with the times we have AA vs KK ?

It seems to me you have to be lucky and there is not a practical way to beat the variance in this situation. Not to mention the times when our AA lose to KK more often that it should.
From my experience after cca 100.000 hands its rare to have significant deviations.
AA vs KK Quote
05-17-2020 , 08:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1llegAl
KK vs AA in 6max happens 1 in 9768 times i think.

How many hands we need to play in order the times we have KK vs AA to be equal with the times we have AA vs KK ?

It seems to me you have to be lucky and there is not a practical way to beat the variance in this situation. Not to mention the times when our AA lose to KK more often that it should.
Since in each such hand it's random whether we end up on the KK or the AA side of the draw you can essentially map this onto a coinflip excercise.
"How many coins do we need to toss in order to have an equal number of heads and tails?"

The answer is: other than with zero tosses there is no definite answer.

You can, however, ask questions like "with what probabilty will I be within a certain deviation from the expected value of KK/AA vs AA/KK" (i.e. 50/50)
(if you want to calculate the probability for a certain set of values I suggest you google for "Chebyshev inequality")

In the end these cooler hands don't really matter. That is, if you have enough money to survive the variability. That's what proper bankroll management is all about: giving you enough depth not to go bust when the occasional negative variance hits you with a certain probabilty.
The deeper your bankroll the less likey you're going to go bust (though this chance is never 0%, but with a high enough bankroll you can definitely put it in a range of probability which you would accept for other things in real life....also, assuming you're better than the average player. Otherwise there's little chance of avoiding going bust - no matter how deep your bankroll is)

Over many hands you cooler someone as often as they cooler you - so in the end it usually average out. No reason to fret over it.
The real winnings are made in playing the borderline hands better than your opponent.

Last edited by antialias; 05-17-2020 at 08:16 AM.
AA vs KK Quote
05-17-2020 , 08:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by antialias
Since in each such hand it's random whether we end up on the KK or the AA side of the draw you can essentially map this onto a coinflip excercise.
"How many coins do we need to toss in order to have an equal number of heads and tails?"

The answer is: other than with zero tosses there is no definite answer.

You can, however, ask questions like "with what probabilty will I be within a certain deviation from the expected value of KK/AA vs AA/KK" (i.e. 50/50)
(if you want to calculate the probability for a certain set of values I suggest you google for "Chebyshev inequality")

In the end these cooler hands don't really matter. That is, if you have enough money to survive the variability. That's what proper bankroll management is all about: giving you enough depth not to go bust when the occasional negative variance hits you with a certain probabilty.
The deeper your bankroll the less likey you're going to go bust (though this chance is never 0%, but with a high enough bankroll you can definitely put it in a range of probability which you would accept for other things in real life....also, assuming you're better than the average player. Otherwise there's little chance of avoiding going bust - no matter how deep your bankroll is)

Over many hands you cooler someone as often as they cooler you - so in the end it usually average out. No reason to fret over it.
The real winnings are made in playing the borderline hands better than your opponent.
I am pretty nit with my BR so going bust is not my concern. But when you run into AA 7 times in a row in 3 days it can be very annoying.
AA vs KK Quote
05-17-2020 , 08:43 AM
Which is about 0.8% chance of that happening (if you were never on the opposite end of that particular cooler, that is)

It's low but it does happen.
AA vs KK Quote
05-17-2020 , 10:01 AM
HUH ? Trying to look for edge in a situation that happens less than 1/2 % of the time is kinda pointless
AA vs KK Quote
05-17-2020 , 07:32 PM
I am sensing that this is a cleverly disguised version of 'Online poker is rigged'
AA vs KK Quote
05-17-2020 , 07:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1llegAl
KK vs AA in 6max happens 1 in 9768 times i think.

How many hands we need to play in order the times we have KK vs AA to be equal with the times we have AA vs KK ?

It seems to me you have to be lucky and there is not a practical way to beat the variance in this situation. Not to mention the times when our AA lose to KK more often that it should.
It is probably more fair to say 'When being dealt KK, against 5 other players, you will run into AA once every 44 times'.
AA vs KK Quote
05-17-2020 , 11:31 PM
^^ I think it's closer to one in 41.
When you have a combo of KK, there's a 2.45% chance that one of the five opponents has a combo of AA. (6/1225 * 5)
AA vs KK Quote
05-18-2020 , 08:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1llegAl
KK vs AA in 6max happens 1 in 9768 times i think.
1 in 1509
Edit - if Hero has to be involved it's 1 in 4527. If Hero has to have the KK then it's 1/9054, not far off from what you said if that's what you meant.

Quote:
How many hands we need to play in order the times we have KK vs AA to be equal with the times we have AA vs KK ?
They'll become closer to equal percentage-wise the more hands you play, but their net difference will grow. The lead will eventually alternate, though.

If you're curious how many trials are needed to be within (50 +/- x)%, you can play around with the binomial distribution pmf. Actually since p=.5 you can just divide the total binary permutations by 2^n. For instance in 100 coinflips, the chance of being between 49-51% is:
[2*C(100,49) + C(100,50)] / 2^100 = 23.56%

Or maybe you've already experienced 5 more KK-vs-AA than AA-vs-KK and are interested in how long you need to go for an x% chance of the tallies being equal at least once along the way?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly
^^ I think it's closer to one in 41.
I concur, that's P(at least one villain AA | hero KK), in a vacuum with no raises/reraises yet. 2.44463743% or 1 in 40.91 to be exact

Last edited by heehaww; 05-18-2020 at 08:25 AM.
AA vs KK Quote
05-18-2020 , 10:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by heehaww
1 in 1509
Edit - if Hero has to be involved it's 1 in 4527. If Hero has to have the KK then it's 1/9054, not far off from what you said if that's what you meant.

They'll become closer to equal percentage-wise the more hands you play, but their net difference will grow. The lead will eventually alternate, though.

If you're curious how many trials are needed to be within (50 +/- x)%, you can play around with the binomial distribution pmf. Actually since p=.5 you can just divide the total binary permutations by 2^n. For instance in 100 coinflips, the chance of being between 49-51% is:
[2*C(100,49) + C(100,50)] / 2^100 = 23.56%

Or maybe you've already experienced 5 more KK-vs-AA than AA-vs-KK and are interested in how long you need to go for an x% chance of the tallies being equal at least once along the way?

I concur, that's P(at least one villain AA | hero KK), in a vacuum with no raises/reraises yet. 2.44463743% or 1 in 40.91 to be exact
Thank you sir
AA vs KK Quote
05-18-2020 , 11:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpewingIsMyMove
I am sensing that this is a cleverly disguised version of 'Online poker is rigged'
No sir, it is more baby rage due to variance. I didn't expect but got some serious replys though.
AA vs KK Quote
05-18-2020 , 12:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly
^^ I think it's closer to one in 41.
When you have a combo of KK, there's a 2.45% chance that one of the five opponents has a combo of AA. (6/1225 * 5)
I think I skipped the hand removal part of the denominator
AA vs KK Quote
05-18-2020 , 04:04 PM
What are the chances you get AA 3 hands in a row? I'll contend the answer is "221:1". Do you know why?

This is the same as issues in this thread. As you solve this, start with when it is that you ask the question. Most people don't sit around the table and ask, "Will I get AA the next three hands?" Maybe the better version of the question above is as follows:
  • Let's assume that the correct odds of my getting AA three hands is 221:1.
  • What just happened so that this would be true?
All this to suggest that nobody sits around and wonders, "How likely am I to see an AA vs KK cooler next hand?" They look down at KK and wonder "How likely am I to loose my stack to AA?" If you look down and see AA, you wonder how likely you are to get it in an loose, but you're not specifically worried about KK. When you wonder about these things happening way more than they should, it is because you're ignoring the fact that you don't even ask the question until part way through the exercise.
Quote:
I am pretty nit with my BR so going bust is not my concern. But when you run into AA 7 times in a row in 3 days it can be very annoying.
I've had two royals in a month.
Spoiler:
Not even sure it was that unlikely.
AA vs KK Quote

      
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