This could have been a semi bluff with A9, but it seemed more like set charging a FD. The guy had been limp/calling a lot, but then folding to c-bets or check/folding check/calling IP then suddenly he wants to get some money in the pot. Really felt like a set mine that hit.

$25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: $25.35
Hero (UTG): $58.09
MP: $25.00
CO: $22.96
BTN: $32.82
SB: $25.00

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with A A
Hero raises to $0.85, MP calls $0.85, 2 folds, SB calls $0.75, 1 fold

Flop: ($2.80) 6 4 9 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.80, MP raises to $8.44, SB folds, Hero ???

BTW I realize I get a re-draw on the diamonds, but if I put him on a set do I really want to chase runner runner flush or better set.

ah, one of those people that just mashes the pot button that randomly tilts me

pretty draw heavy board he can have a wide range of hands i say this is good spot to get it in

Yea, but I felt like all the limp/check/call/fold stuff indicated he was waiting for a big hand. No read I shove, but I'd been playing with this guy for a while and this was the first had where he got aggressive. Seems like the exact spot he turns over 66 or 99.

Would he really have raised that much with an A9?

Then again it might be just me but he has seriously overbetted here? Why throw £8 odd in with a set? Afraid of the flush draw?

Smells like one of those spots you might be flipping. 35/57/87 suited. I prefer to proceed on the side of caution and fold.

Well, like I said it could be a semi-bluff or he thinks I'm just c-betting AK and his JJ is good.

I'm such a beginner, sometimes I think I'm just lost and maybe I should fold and post on 2+2! LOL!

I think you have to be able to get away from AA sometimes, but I've never been able to. Still showing a profit with it of course, but does that mean I should always shove with it no matter what the board?

Based on his play I think there is little chance he's re-raising a draw. He would have just called. Maybe a SF draw.

I think he could easily be afraid of the FD with 3 people in the hand. Plenty of times you slow play call her and let AK/AQ/AJ/A10d catch up.

Also with an OE SF draw showing vs 2 players I think I'm actually the dog here.

i don't think it's a semi bluff..and given your reads on him it seems like he is doing a lot of set mining and they have to hit a set eventually..and i dont think he'd really do this with JJ especially with the 3 bet being so large..

so ill say its either a shove or a fold..cuz on the turn the pot is gonna be basically what he has left in his stack so i think they money would be getting in...

but, this is why you have reads on people..which is exactly what you have on him..

This feels like pocket 6s to me. The other less likely option IMO is KQ

Either way with a MP call PF and a substantial raise on the flop, that makes him nearly pot committed. $14 in the pot leaves him with 2:1 pot odds if you put him all in. He wont back away with either hand. You may be ahead now but the river is on its way. If he does have the 66, your way behind.

AA doesnt always win (I know) get out and take him next time.

N

Sometimes I think we overthink things.

Sure, a set is in villain's range, no argument there. But flush draws and pockets are also in his range. I could see villain 3betting with TT-JJ here

its close, but I think if you plug in villain's range into poker stove, you have enough equity to shove here.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

7,092,142 games 4.375 secs 1,621,061 games/sec

Board: 9d 6d 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.975% 57.97% 00.00% 4111651 0.00 {AdAs }
Hand 1: 42.025% 42.03% 00.00% 2980491 0.00 { JJ-99, 66, 44, KdQd }

Seems to me the correct play is a shove here.

From the OP's reads I'd heavily discount flush draws and TT/JJ. He'd shown no history of playing a draw fast, and he didn't 3-bet pre. He didn't 3-bet pre but he pots a rag flop?

I'm comfortable letting AA go to a nit like this. We're always telling tight people to loosen up cause otherwise people won't pay off their big hands, right? Let's not pay off this guy's big hand. Getting it in versus his range is marginal at best, a likely a really terrible idea.

Any info/stats/reads on the opponent?


Generally vs. an unknown a pretty easy shove.


Also, regarding: "This could have been a semi bluff with A9" Raising with A9 here in his spot would be pretty bad vs. an unknown and just in general. That would be an easy call.

Before I went on my pokerstove kick a few months ago, i'd be in complete aggreement with you.

But i've been making it a point to try to play more like pokerstove and i've been discovering that hands I normally would have folded because "obviously villain has a set" turn out to be hands I am now winning because villain's range is wider than I thought.

So, lets discount that villain would fast play a FD. Fine. What I can't get over though is how villain would play TT-JJ here. You can't tell me that preflop villain would 3bet the UTG raiser with TT-JJ. Sure, its possible, but what is equally possible (if not more likely) is that villain just calls with TT-JJ. And then, when villain hits this low-ball flop, what would/should villian do?

TT-JJ is too vulnerable to smooth call, especially with a draw out there, and especially when Hero's range includes AQ, AK.

So, the question I have for you guys is what do you think TT-JJ does in this spot IP over the preflop raiser on this flop?

I submit that TT-JJ is NOT going to smooth call. I just can't see that. To me, TT-JJ raises.

And so, if TT-JJ is in villain's range (which I believe it is) then you have enough equity for a shove here even if you include sets in villain's range. Its close, but the math is the math.

Is a fold terrible here? No. I don't think it is, and i'd go so far as to say that a fold (given OP's reads) is okay.

But I do think you have enough equity to shove here based on my above arguments.

Yea, i just meant in general that he could be doing this with a worse hand that he thinks is good

My reads were that guy had been playing a lot of hands all limp/call/fold and then suddenly wants to get money in the pot so it felt like a set mine with 66 or 99.

this was the part that worried me was that he would make this move with 10 10 or JJ in which case was fine. the timer is a mixed blessing online, sometimes not enough time to think

shove without better reads than what u gave

so ur saying that noticing villian is obviously set mining a ton and c/f most flops and then out of nowhere he decides to 3 bet big without having done so before isnt a good read?

what hands has villain shown down? there is no info in that OP to solidify a read that he is setmining a ton. what types of boards was he calling/folding/raising on? what are his stats? has he been involved in any noticeable hands?

i would want solid knowledge of these questions to classify it as a read. saying he check folds a lot says nothing...now if it says check/folds A/K high dry boards, thats more of a read. saying he c/f draw heavy boards, thats more of a read.

My point is simple. If you include TT-JJ in villain's range, and if you think villain would 3bet this flop with TT-JJ, then you have enough equity to shove flop here.

Yes, a set is also in villain's range. But if you include TT-JJ in his range as well, you have enough equity to get it in.

Two thoughts:

(1) PokerStove doesn't let you weight hands. It just goes by straight up hand combos. I'd discount TT/JJ a bit since we can't be sure he'd play those this way, while it's very likely he'd play a set like this.

(2) If we shove the flop, he may fold TT/JJ but will definitely get it in with a set. His check/raise/call range is a bit stronger than his check/raise range, which is bad for us.

ya i you're right..

should have given more info on board texture and some stats..

Stove does let you weight hands by eliminating combos. Use the "dead cards" box just below "board" on the top right.