Hi. I'm not good with bet sizing or what odds are required to call, so this is a 2 part question (from my hand, and from villains point of view)

Live tournament. Blinds are 100/200 with 200BB ante. P3 raises to 500 (he is loose aggressive, raising frequently with weak cards), P4 calls (seems to only play with strong cards), BTN calls and could have anything. I am in sb with KK and have a solid table image I have 16,000 chips left and this is the last hand of this level. P3 and P4 have me covered, BTN has similar chip stack to me. What is the best 3b size????

2nd question. I actually raised to 2,400k, original raiser folded, P4 called (sure he has something like AQ suited or 10s/JJs, BTN also calls. No idea what he has but turns out he has 5s,7s and called raise of 2.4k with only 13.6k behind. What odds would he need to make that a good call, or what stack size should I have/he have to make that a profitable call?

Are there 9 players at the table? If so, the pot is 3,600 and you have 16,000 left? Tournaments are weird and this is a strange situation. I’d probably just raise to 3k - 3.5k and jam on any reasonable (no A, monotone without our suit) flop against more then one opponent. SPR is just so shallow and your opponents will probably call with a lot of top pairs.

75s calling a 3bet with less then 100bbs seems like a major leak to me, but I play cash and am not super well versed on short stack play so I could be wrong. I don’t think he can play that hand profitably at this stack depth.

I generally choose a consistent, pot-sized 3bet size which I vary if there are known fish (increase the size) or too many limpers (increase depending on number of limpers). This 3bet size is on the higher side than what most players do these days but my 3bet range is pretty tight.
So in your case, we can calculate both his actual equity and required equity with different bet sizes.

Actual Equity: If I put KK, 57s and a 3rd tight range into Pokercruncher, the equity for 57s is just above 20%.

Required Equity:
1) With your bet-size:
Total Pot = 3.6 + 2.3 + 1.9 = 7.8k
Required Equity: 1.9 /(1.9 + 7.8) = 0.195

So he's definitely getting the right price to call even without considering implied odds.

2) Pot size bet of 3.6K
Assuming P4 calls, the total pot is now 3.6 + 3.5 + 3.1 = 10.2
Required Equity = 3.1/3.1 + 10.2 = 0.23
Ok, so here his actual equity is less than required equity. However, unfortunately, if we look at this strictly mathematically, he's still getting a decent price to call due to the following factors:

1) He has position.
2) He perceives you on the tighter side and so 3betting here into 4 people clearly seems like you have AA, KK.
3)The other player is also tight which means he also probably has high cards or high pair.
All of this means that he has very high implied odds of doubling (even tripling) up if he flops some good 2 pair, pair plus draw, straight (draw) or flush (draw) and even some unsuspecting trips. You (or anyone in your shoes) would be fine getting it all in on boards like Qs9s6, T36, J55 and so on.

3) Finally, we can calculate the extreme situation where you went all in.
In this case, it's highly unlikely that P4 would call. So assuming he folds.
Required Equity now would be 15.5/15.5 + 3.6 + 15.9 which is 44%. He is definitely not getting a good price in this situation!

In conclusion, it is not possible to compute all this otb and humans don't always play like this. However, I think sizing somewhat bigger in this situation was called for. The table seems pretty loose and balance really doesn't seem that important, so a 3.6k raise or even a hefty 4.5k bet lets people know that an all in is coming post flop and they should get out of the way with their speculative hands.
Mathematically speaking, he would still get the right price even with a 4k bet (if you include implied odds, P4 calling and position) but he probably would've folded since humans don't play gto.

Is everyone posting the ante or BB only?

Big blind only ante

Sorry, but this analysis is dead wrong.

gto would purefold his combo vs the squeeze size op used, much less 4k.

I'll give you a hint: 75s even with position here isn't going to overrealize, it's going to underrealize. If you think about why that is, I think it'll help you understand the game better.

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@op I think you want to squeeze to a minimum of 3kish here, likely a bit more. I actually had a pretty similar spot in a live mtt recently with JJ and on analysis it seems pretty clear that a large nai squeeze is good. Your 2.4k squeeze is too small given 2 overcalls, though it's alright with just 1 overcaller.

Thanks. Really helpful. Clearly my reraise wasnt big enough. If I had made it bigger and had the same number of callers, at least I could have killed the action on the flop and won a decent pot.

Duncelanas, I'm a beginner so it is very likely I'm wrong. I didn't know what overrealize and underrealize meant so I looked it up. Found these 5 factors and how they would apply here:
1) Position - overrealize.
2) Playability - overrealize?
3) Stack depth - underrealize.
4) Range advantage - underrealize
5) Skill - Assuming it's the same.


Am I on the right track here?

Good start! I'm always a bit happy when a beginner puts some work in on their own in response to a post someone makes.

Yeah so you're on the right track here, but you have to consider how some of these are related. In general, position always helps you realize better (even when you have range disadvantage). But things like playability and stack depth aren't always so simple.

In a single raised pot 100bb deep (for example, btn open, bb defend), 75s has fantastic playability - any open ender, gutter, double backdoor, or pair + backdoor draw makes your hand an automatic continue all the time, likely sometimes for a raise and sometimes for a call, and you can often see turns and rivers with your hand and get to realize your equity.

In a 3b squeezed pot with spr 3.5 and range disadvantage, this just isn't the case anymore. You're going to flop gutshots and either 1) be blasted off your hand because the 3bettor has all the overpairs or 2) make some very marginal flop calls and get into some brutally tough turn and river spots. Vs a cb flop/bomb turn line, a hand like 75s will have to fold sometimes even if it has a flush draw or oesd.

Note that this is even worse for 75s if OP squeezes to 3k and pot otf is like 6.6k with each player having 13k behind (spr 2 or something).

In general, as you get deeper, hands that are suited and connected tend to realize better (because you'll flop draws and will have nice opportunities to continue with them). As you get shallower, suited and connected hands tend to realize worse, because pots become much more about flopping top pair and stacking off, you'll sometimes get bombed off your equity (esp in spots where you have range disadvantage), and your implied odds go way down.

This complicates things pretty substantially versus the pot odds/implied odds model, but is the reason correct play will fold 75s to either squeeze size -- even though 75s has the raw equity needed to continue, it will have massive realization problems vs sqz range in a shallow spr post spot and won't be a profitable defend.

All of this is completely discounting the fact that another player overcalled, which might *seem* good for 75s (better pot odds, still in position!), but is actually worse -- now 2 players can flop strong hands and push you off your equity postflop, not to mention the other overcaller also has a very suited-dense range that might flush-over-flush you sometimes.

Poker is complicated

Wow, what an analysis. Thanks so much, seriously!

Makes sense to me now. Glad I looked up realized equity.
lamate, please make sure to read this and ignore what I said.

Read it and digesting as we speak ��