Hi guys! What's up?

I played this full ring hand earlier and wanted to have you guys opinion on it. Villain is 12/8 over 300 hands.



- First I don't really like my 3 bet sizing, it's a bit too small compared to the size of the pot imo. Thoughts?

- I struggle reading villain hand. He flats the initial raise as well as my 3 bet so I think that him having an over pair is pretty marginal (thoughts?). And seeing how tight he is I can't really imagine him bluffing me in that spot but at the same time would he really set mine me or call my 3 bet with hands like 89s or T9s. What do you guys think?

Thanks in advance

Fold turn. He has probably has 66 or A9s, which is only 5 combos, but nits nearly always have what they are repping. I can imagine him betting the flop with hands like TT, 88, 77, but not barreling with those. He might have some QQ and the other combo of JJ too, along with 55 that binked the turn. In other words, you beat none of his value-barrel range, and only beat hands he'd usually check to you. Since he bet, you should fold.

I agree with Arty, I mean he could have TT I think but we play ranges so it's a fold.

If we cant flat call with an overpair on that turn, what can we call with in this spot?

Donk bets from nits at this level (2nl) are usually good preflop hands that have missed the board and they do not know what to do with them. I personally think the vill could even have AK and AQ in this spot as played. I think i'd have to call turn and reevaluate river. I like bluffcatching with the JJs as long as the river isn't scary and the bet isn't too big.

AA and JJ are different here. Even if JJ is ahead you don't love a lot of river cards and AA catches the times he slowplayed a weird QQ.

Also this is an exploitable fold, you need to do this only if you know villain isn't bluffing here at all. Actually JJ is kind of on the bottom of our pairs here anyways given we squeezed preflop and called a donkbet on the flop from a nit. Of course with a half pot bet in position we might want to call some AK/AQ preferably with backdoor flushdraw but not the turn. If we fold those hands JJ is slightly on the bottom of what we'd normally call the turn with, against a nit with this line you can actually fold and exploit his unbalance (doesn't bluff in this spot).

Whatever villain has, he's playing it wrong.
I can't think of a single combo I would play this way in villain's shoes, as he has so few value combos, and he should probably be checking all boats/quads, trips and underpairs.

As hero, I'm more inclined to call the turn with AKcc than JJ. In the rare spots villain has queens or trips, AKs has many more outs than JJ does. I'm also flatting KK/AA, but kind of praying for a check (or a bink) on the river, as this board is just terrible for our range. 12/8 guys just don't barrel as a bluff on dry boards in my experience, so I'm folding pretty often. There's also a small chance he took a stab with 87s hoping we would fold AK, but now he's hit his gutterball, he wants us to have aces.

You guys have some weird ideas about donk bets at 2nl.

Players rarely ever donk bet at this stake for value, most of the time a donk bet at this stake is a good preflop hand that has flopped poor and villains don't know what to do as they don't want to fold it but know it is weak so they donk.

I wouldn't be surprised if the villain here had 77 or 88 or even 2 big broadways. There is also another consideration and that is nits play overly tight pre for one reason.... they are absolutely f**king sh*t postflop. They have no postflop abilities! I think we would need some player tendencies and possible postflop stats to make a better judgement call. However, with the population reads I currently have for this stake on this site... I think personally we have to bluffcatch turn and reevaluate river.

Thanks for the input guys. I ended up folding to his turn bet. So you all think that the call OTF is the correct play?

Yes.

To add to what Dan's saying, I'm not sure we can be sure this is a nit who does have what's he's repping. What stats do we have on MP1, for example? If he's a maniac then MP3 could easily have things like A6s in his range in this position and with this PF action (and I agree that 77/88/TT are all in the mix). A6s might also go some way towards explaining the donk bet. The tiny 3B/squeeze might have affected his line too.

Still not sure I can call the second (or third) barrel, but I don't think we're necessarily as far behind his range as it might first seem.