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11-29-2012 , 09:15 AM

#26

MidniteToker

grinder

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 600

What proportion of the calculated EV of a lottery comes from winning the jackpot?

How relevant is EV if you can only profit by winning the jackpot, and winning it means you profit whether the EV is negative or positive?

Seems to me the lottery is a sucker's game whether you calculate EV or not.

Quote

11-29-2012 , 10:46 AM

#27

mario38

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 136

The Powerall jackpot reached a record $579.9 million and was won - 2 winning tickets.

Good luck.

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11-29-2012 , 02:55 PM

#28

tringlomane

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 2,573

Quote:

Originally Posted by MidniteToker

With jackpots like this, the jackpot is the vast majority of the EV value. So yeah, the lottery is something where EV values don't mean a lot, and even if the lottery would technically be +EV, it will never be an advantage play. The lottery is basically just a gamble to change your life. Unfortunately, I was not the jackpot winner from Missouri, even though I bought my tickets there.

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11-29-2012 , 03:51 PM

#29

MidniteToker

grinder

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 600

Pretty much what I figured. It's not like I don't occasionally buy a ticket, but then again I'm not going around spouting off about pools and "+EV" games.

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11-29-2012 , 06:52 PM

#30

mario38

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 136

Given the expected value of lottery draws can vary from 20% to 200%, it is a valuable criteria for deciding which draws to play.

Good luck.

Quote

11-29-2012 , 07:45 PM

#31

Neil S

King of the sidebar

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 19,675

If you're playing based on utility, noting the negligible utility of a buck versus the overwhelming utility of a 7 or 8 figure cash payout, then the cash EV is irrelevant.

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11-29-2012 , 08:31 PM

#32

MidniteToker

grinder

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 600

Quote:

Originally Posted by mario38

Good luck.

You're right, luck is what this is all about, and EV is irrelevant in this scenario.

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11-29-2012 , 08:37 PM

#33

mario38

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 136

Quote:

Originally Posted by MidniteToker

You're right, luck is what this is all about, and EV is irrelevant in this scenario.

And so if you had a choice of buying a lottery ticket for a game with a 20% expected value or a game with a 200% expected value, you would not care which game? Just randomly pick a game to play.

Interesting!

Then I guess you only depend upon luck and nothing else.

Well, good luck with that!

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11-30-2012 , 11:28 AM

#34

tiger415

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 1,264

INB4 mario38 binks the lotto.

Then you haters gonna hate

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11-30-2012 , 12:31 PM

#35

Neil S

King of the sidebar

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 19,675

Quote:

Originally Posted by tiger415

INB4 mario38 binks the lotto.

Then you haters gonna hate

If he does bink it, he'll just HAPPEN to bink it on the one ticket he bought that wasn't in the pool, of course. So we'll never hear about it.

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11-30-2012 , 12:48 PM

#36

splashpot

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 8,203

Quote:

Originally Posted by mario38

Let's say you have 2 lotteries to choose from.

1. The recent Powerball where you pay $2 for a chance at a $550 mil jackpot. After taxes, split pot possibilities, minor prizes, etc, I have no idea what the EV would be. Maybe it's positive, maybe not. I don't feel like figuring it out.
2. A lottery where you pay $2 for a chance to win $100k but you pick fewer balls so the EV works out to be slightly higher than option 1.

I'm picking lottery 1 all day.

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11-30-2012 , 12:49 PM

#37

Neil S

King of the sidebar

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 19,675

Exactly. Cash EV is irrelevant to the decision to play a lottery. It's purely about utility EV.

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11-30-2012 , 01:08 PM

#38

mario38

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 136

Quote:

Originally Posted by Neil S

If he does bink it, he'll just HAPPEN to bink it on the one ticket he bought that wasn't in the pool, of course. So we'll never hear about it.

That will never happen. And not for the obvious reason of inviting a dispute from a group member when they find out I won.

The reason it will never happen is because I never buy a ticket on my own. The only time a lottery draw has a higher than average expected value is when the jackpot has rolled for several draws. In those cases the jackpot is so large as to diminish the value of the jackpot to an individual winner. That is, the law of diminishing returns applies.

Therefore, the only tickets I buy are part of a group and when the expected value is higher than average. For example, tonight's Lotto Max draw with a $65 million tax free cash jackpot.

Good luck.

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11-30-2012 , 01:28 PM

#39

mario38

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 136

Quote:

Originally Posted by splashpot

So you are agreeing with me. You will pick the game with the higher expected value.

But, if the Powerball draw has the higher expected value, then the best way to take advantage of that game and get good utility for your win is to play the large Powerball jackpot as part of a group.

That is my strategy in a nutshell.

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11-30-2012 , 01:36 PM

#40

splashpot

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 8,203

Quote:

Originally Posted by mario38

So you are agreeing with me. You will pick the game with the higher expected value.

I do not know how to be more clear that I do not agree with you.

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11-30-2012 , 01:57 PM

#41

mario38

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 136

Quote:

Originally Posted by splashpot

I do not know how to be more clear that I do not agree with you.

Reread your post where you described two options. You picked option 2. So would I. Sounds like agreement to me.

Good luck.

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11-30-2012 , 02:11 PM

#42

splashpot

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 8,203

Ok, you must be trolling now.

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11-30-2012 , 02:20 PM

#43

mario38

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 136

Quote:

Originally Posted by splashpot

Ok, you must be trolling now.

The last line of defense. Shoot the messenger.

Quote

11-30-2012 , 02:37 PM

#44

Didace

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 20,435

Quote:

Originally Posted by splashpot

I'm picking lottery 1 all day.

Does not equal

Quote:

Originally Posted by mario38

. You picked option 2.

Quote

11-30-2012 , 02:42 PM

#45

mario38

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 136

Quote:

Originally Posted by splashpot

I do not know how to be more clear that I do not agree with you.

Sorry. My mistake. I apologize.

I reread your post, more slowly this time. Trouble with multi tasking, I read too quickly.

OK, yes, we disagree. Time to move on.

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12-01-2012 , 02:15 AM

#46

jmark

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 3,790

If I'm not going to win a prize, I'd rather not win $500 million than $100k

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12-01-2012 , 03:51 AM

#47

AngusThermopyle

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 14,929

Game 1: 1,000,000,000 to 1 odds. $1.2B (tax free) payout on $1 ticket

Game 2: 1000 to 1 odds. $1100 (tax free) payout on $1 ticket

Which one do buy one ticket for?

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12-01-2012 , 04:35 AM

#48

Fubster

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 8,873

Well since we only have $1, I'd go with game 2.

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12-01-2012 , 10:13 AM

#49

Didace

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 20,435

Quote:

Originally Posted by AngusThermopyle

Game 1: 1,000,000,000 to 1 odds. $1.2B (tax free) payout on $1 ticket

Game 2: 1000 to 1 odds. $1100 (tax free) payout on $1 ticket

Which one do buy one ticket for?

Is this a one-time shot? Or does the game run continuously?

If it is continuous, I play game 2. EZ money.

If it is one-time, I play game 1 for entertainment value.

Quote

12-01-2012 , 06:26 PM

#50

jmark

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 3,790

It's only a dollar.

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