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I could see dealer's down card in Blackjack I could see dealer's down card in Blackjack

05-05-2010 , 12:20 PM
Full kelly for a game where you have a 10% advantage would be 7.5% of your bankroll and if you lose 5 hands in a row that's 1/3 of your roll
I could see dealer's down card in Blackjack Quote
05-05-2010 , 07:06 PM
It shouldn't be...

100 units. - bet 7.5 - lose = 92.5
92.5 units - bet 7 - lose = 85.5
85.5 units - bet 6.5 - lose = 79 units
79 units - bet 6 - lose = 73 units
73 units - bet 5.5 - lose = 69.5 units.

Just 30% of your roll... you should be reducing each time your roll drops.

How do you get a 7.5% bet anyways? With a full Kelly, you should be betting 10%. The growth rate should be 0.5% per bet.

5 in a row with a 55/45 split = 1.8% chance. Naturally it will happen on a long enough cycle.

Obviously blackjack doesn't quite work like that (your expectation get closes to 100% due to naturals, and most of the time you lose), so 10% would be too large anyways, you can't guarantee your edge is as big as you think it is, bet sizing in casino conditions would be a pain. 1/2 or 1/4 kelly would seem to be reasonable.
I could see dealer's down card in Blackjack Quote

      
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