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craps strategy craps strategy

01-21-2010 , 02:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Playbig2000
this is a strategy that works good on regular tables (not hot or not cold ones). wait for a new point, then on the third roll on that same point, put up a dont come bet.

if they make their point, do it again - wait for the point, then put up a dc bet on the third roll (if they roll a 7 on the come-out, you win your first dc bet but lose the new one). sometimes you will have 3 or 4 dc bets up and when they 7-out, you take them all down, plus if you make a 2 or 3 on your roll, you win it right there.
Posts like this need to be in the RGT forum.
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01-21-2010 , 02:28 AM
When betting the don't come: On avg i will put $25 on the don't pass line and $75 behind. When the point is 4 or 10, I also like to throw a $25 on the hard 4 or 10. Since the 4 or 10 can only come 2 ways( 31 22, 55 64) How -Ev is this bet? I had some short term success with it but obviously everything in craps has to be -EV.
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01-21-2010 , 05:03 AM
i can always bet a dollar on 12 and get 30 to 1 to cover the 12 push
for the 7 or 11 i can bet 4 dollars on 11 and hope i dont hit a 7
tell me if this is good
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01-21-2010 , 05:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by litto
i can always bet a dollar on 12 and get 30 to 1 to cover the 12 push
for the 7 or 11 i can bet 4 dollars on 11 and hope i dont hit a 7
tell me if this is good
easiest rule of thumb is STAY AWAY FROM CENTER ACTION. Those are the worst bets at the table

p.s I hope i don't get flamed for admitting I bet the hardways in my instance.
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01-21-2010 , 10:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by litto
i can always bet a dollar on 12 and get 30 to 1 to cover the 12 push
for the 7 or 11 i can bet 4 dollars on 11 and hope i dont hit a 7
tell me if this is good
Picking apart this strategy is becoming pretty fun for me.

Ran the numbers, throwing an extra dollar to hedge on 12, lowers your EV to -$1.098. The reason for this is that you lose one more dollar on all other bets including that 39% chance of crap out after the point where you originally pushed overall.

$4 on the 11 lowers your EV to -$1.96 for the same reason: you lose four more dollars on all other bets.
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01-21-2010 , 12:07 PM
lol im thinking of another one then
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01-21-2010 , 02:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HooliganHRV
When betting the don't come: On avg i will put $25 on the don't pass line and $75 behind. When the point is 4 or 10, I also like to throw a $25 on the hard 4 or 10. Since the 4 or 10 can only come 2 ways( 31 22, 55 64) How -Ev is this bet? I had some short term success with it but obviously everything in craps has to be -EV.
Check your math. Use your fingers if you have to. There's more than 2 ways to hit the 4 or 10. Thinking that adding a hard way will help your EV is pretty stupid.
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01-21-2010 , 02:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Sklansky
Posts like this need to be in the RGT forum.
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01-21-2010 , 04:13 PM
betting hardways as a hedge will reduce variance but increase your expected loss.
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01-21-2010 , 04:20 PM
betting hardways is more fun though
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01-21-2010 , 04:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmark
Check your math. Use your fingers if you have to. There's more than 2 ways to hit the 4 or 10. Thinking that adding a hard way will help your EV is pretty stupid.
I am pretty sure the chances of hitting the hard 4 and a soft 4 are are the exact same. Am I missing something? Please explain why...
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01-21-2010 , 04:46 PM
There's 2 ways to hit a soft 4. Otherwise it paying 7:1 wouldn't be a bad bet!
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01-21-2010 , 04:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HooliganHRV
I am pretty sure the chances of hitting the hard 4 and a soft 4 are are the exact same. Am I missing something? Please explain why...

Really? 2,2 vs 1,3 and 3,1
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01-21-2010 , 04:57 PM
hence the term HARD
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01-21-2010 , 05:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by spadebidder
Really? 2,2 vs 1,3 and 3,1
I guess you are right, but can you tell me how bad my hedge is when betting the don'ts as stated in my previous thread.
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01-21-2010 , 05:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HooliganHRV
I guess you are right, but can you tell me how bad my hedge is when betting the don'ts as stated in my previous thread.
when you collect on your hedge bet, you only get paid 7:1 when you should get paid 8:1

you have 8 losing numbers (all sevens and 3-1 and 1-3) to one winning number (2-2).
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01-21-2010 , 05:59 PM
rudy I understand that hard ways are bad bets, but like i said previously , if i put $25 on don't pass and say $150 behind and $25 on the hard 4(when point is 4) I think it is pretty hard to lose money. (I understand i don't get paid correct odds but the chances of me winning that bet is huge) Is it a good strategy for short term success? Does anyone know the exact percentage of the chances of hitting a hard 4 vs a soft 4?
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01-21-2010 , 06:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HooliganHRV
rudy I understand that hard ways are bad bets, but like i said previously , if i put $25 on don't pass and say $150 behind and $25 on the hard 4(when point is 4) I think it is pretty hard to lose money . Does anyone know the exact percentage of the chances of hitting a hard 4 vs a soft 4?
1/36 and 2/36.
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01-21-2010 , 06:03 PM
3 to 1
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01-21-2010 , 06:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by spadebidder
1/36 and 2/36.
my math isn't the best, but does that mean 66.66 percent of the time it will come soft and 33.33 percent of the time it will come hard?

let me rephrase my question. if someone wrote down all the rolls that were a 4, the entire year, What percent of them would be soft?
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01-21-2010 , 06:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HooliganHRV
my math isn't the best, but does that mean 66.66 percent of the time it will come soft and 33.33 percent of the time it will come hard?
Yes.
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01-21-2010 , 06:09 PM
Yes, it's twice as easy to roll a 3,1 than a hard 4.
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01-21-2010 , 06:33 PM
Don't forget that you lose the hardways on a 7 as well so you are really 1/36 to win vs 8/36 to lose on the 4 or 10 hard ie odds of 1:8, hence why they pay you 1:7 and maintain an edge
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01-21-2010 , 06:58 PM
10 dollars on pass line, 20 dollars on dont pass. 4 dollars on honk bet
if its a point is made and if its a 5 or 9 put 5 dollars odds behind the pass line, its either win 5 or lose 5
if its 4,6,8,10 10 dollars behind pass line and 5 dollars on the hardway on the point
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01-21-2010 , 07:04 PM
in atlantic city, no one stop us if we wanted to put money on dont pass bar when its ON
if they let us isnt it +ev?
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