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Craps - Is it possible to be consistently profitable?

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12-04-2010 , 01:55 PM

#51

jmark

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 3,790

Quote:

Originally Posted by Your Mom

plinko is def. beatable

Well I guess it costs nothing to play and it's tough to win 0, so you're right.

Quote

12-10-2010 , 06:18 AM

#52

DrawingDonkey

adept

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 732

Quote:

Originally Posted by NegativeZero

Actually continuous shufflers help the casual player.

They remove the cut card effect which helps the odds slightly, but more hands are played per hour, so I have a feeling the net effect is not in the casual player's favor. I don't have evidence either way, though.

Quote

12-10-2010 , 09:42 AM

#53

spadebidder

Actually Shows Proof

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,905

Quote:

Originally Posted by DrawingDonkey

I'm sure you are right. A BS player will lose more money on a continuous shuffler than they will playing single deck with cut card, simply because they lose 20-30% faster. The cut card effect is small.

Last edited by spadebidder; 12-10-2010 at 10:02 AM.

Quote

12-10-2010 , 01:07 PM

#54

NegativeZero

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 3,358

Many casinos are going toward an auto shuffler for shoes, so I really don't think the # hands/hour really ramps up that much for continuous shufflers anymore.

Quote

12-10-2010 , 01:33 PM

#55

spadebidder

Actually Shows Proof

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,905

Quote:

Originally Posted by NegativeZero

Many casinos are going toward an auto shuffler for shoes, so I really don't think the # hands/hour really ramps up that much for continuous shufflers anymore.

Compared to a single deck which must be frequently hand-shuffled? That's what this point was about.

Quote

12-10-2010 , 01:37 PM

#56

NegativeZero

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 3,358

The original point was how casinos have reacted across-the-board with measures hurting players. I only pointed out that continuous shufflers help the casual player, compared to shoes.

Whether hold goes up I have no idea, but I suspect it does as no counter would ever play a continuous shuffler. DP on craps a notable exception.

Quote

12-16-2010 , 03:18 AM

#57

Wetdog

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 5,389

I know a sure fire way to be consistently profitable.

Own the table.

Quote

12-17-2010 , 01:03 AM

#58

SheetWise

banned

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 4,677

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wetdog

I know a sure fire way to be consistently profitable.

There is no "sure fire" way.

Stupak told me a way back in the 70's -- worked for a while. Inside is safer, no doubt -- and with leverage, can be very profitable. With preferred shares, more profitable yet. OTOH -- with some money, I can enjoy a resort just as much as the guy who owns it -- with a lot less risk.

If -- OTOH -- you want people to pretend to respect you, buy the club.

Quote

12-20-2010 , 01:04 AM

#59

jmark

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 3,790

The Players Club?

Quote

12-24-2010 , 06:27 PM

#60

SuitedJunk

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 2,682

I have been playing craps for years...

It is a ton of fun...

Although, I can only count the winning sessions on my hands, maybe use a couple of toes...

Thankfully I discovered poker in 2004 and stopped playing craps as much...

Basically, if have a good cash in a tourney or cash game, ill put 500-1000 on the craps table these days, if I turn any profit at all, I leave and go straight to video poker.

Quote

12-25-2010 , 03:31 AM

#61

Wetdog

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 5,389

It is now Christmas here in Denver, so to all in OGG Land the happiest of holidays ever.

Quote

01-11-2011 , 09:06 AM

#62

HighHeat

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 391

Sure it's possible. Who hasn't heard of Professional Craps Players? ... ok I haven't either.

Quote

01-12-2011 , 12:04 AM

#63

SheetWise

banned

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 4,677

Quote:

Originally Posted by HighHeat

Sure it's possible. Who hasn't heard of Professional Craps Players? ... ok I haven't either.

They are there, they're simply playing a different game than the one being offered.

Quote

02-02-2011 , 04:22 AM

#64

aucubbie

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 214

I play alot of DP/DC and I don't like fading the 6 or the 8. So instead of taking no action on the bet. I let it travel to the number and then hedge it by placing the number. Example: $100 DC shooter rolls a 6 and the $100 moves behind it and I now place the 6 for $90. I am now guaranted a profit on that bet. 7 hits I net $10 6 hits I net $5. Now I know that this still has a -EV but this stratgey is better than taking no action.

Quote

02-02-2011 , 05:24 AM

#65

SheetWise

banned

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 4,677

Quote:

Originally Posted by aucubbie

Now I know that this still has a -EV but this stratgey is better than taking no action.

You have a 6:5 advantage and you want no action? I think you're seriously over-betting your bankroll.

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02-02-2011 , 06:37 AM

#66

eobmtns

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 2,481

Quote:

Originally Posted by SheetWise

You have a 6:5 advantage and you want no action? I think you're seriously over-betting your bankroll.

This. I'd be happy to buy your unwanted DP/DC bet after a point of 6 or 8 (or any number) .

Quote

02-02-2011 , 10:15 AM

#67

JohnCash

banned

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 412

^^^
LOL @ the people ITT who think this situation doesn't exist.

Quote:

This is the stupidest "what-if" ever. Sure, anytime you can get somebody to sell you something for less than it is worth then you come out ahead.

How about you let me cover your poker bets after you flop a set, and you cover all the rest yourself?

Your hypothetical is not a +EV craps strategy (which of course doesn't exist). It is a strategy to somehow convince another player to give you some of his money.

Quote

02-02-2011 , 12:36 PM

#68

derick

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 625

Quote:

Originally Posted by aucubbie

The bold part is not true. Free odds are 0%, Place bets are at least -1.5%.

Quote

02-02-2011 , 06:35 PM

#69

jmark

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 3,790

Why would you hedge a +EV bet with a -EV bet?

Quote

02-02-2011 , 06:46 PM

#70

aucubbie

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 214

Because I don't want to fade the 6 or the 8. I'm hedging the 6 or 8 instead of taking no action on the DP/DC.

Quote

02-02-2011 , 06:51 PM

#71

acesholdup

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,390

Quote:

Originally Posted by derick

The bold part is not true. Free odds are 0%, Place bets are at least -1.5%.

The bold part is true. The "strategy" is clearly better than just taking down your action. I think that's part of the reason I didn't really latch onto the part earlier about buying somebody's don't bet. Man, taking those down isn't smart.

Quote

02-02-2011 , 06:56 PM

#72

shredhead84

grinder

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 587

you have to get really good at shooting the dice.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X3B6Bqxq9wo

Quote

02-04-2011 , 09:49 PM

#73

eobmtns

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 2,481

Quote:

Originally Posted by aucubbie

As soon as your $100 DC bet travels to the 6, your equity is $109.09 (($200*6)/11). In other words, taking "no action" will cost you $9.09.

If you were to then place the 6 for $90, your equity in this bet would be $88.64 (($195*5)/11); so you are giving up $1.36 of your $9.09 +EV that you gained when the 6 rolled. But you are correct that you can't lose, you are now certain to pocket either $200 or $195.