I find it useful to look at the frequency of chest rewards like this:
Just over
half the time, everybody gets the bottom two rewards.
99.99% of the time, nobody is winning one of those top rewards. The chances of you hitting the top reward is roughly the same as you being struck by lightning in your lifetime. (see google :-) )
No matter what rewards you win, if you continue to play, over time they will average out to the EV for each chest (see picture).
Using some information from the blog post of player bnoise from Italy, I calculated the average rakeback as follows.
Each red box = €1.54 rake paid (approx). 4x red box = €6.16 rake paid. rakeback = €0.13x4 = €0.52. rakeback = 8.4%
red chest rakeback = 8.4%
blue chest rakeback = 9.8%
(typically around ~4%, but over time averaging to the above percentages)
Because half the time we all get the bottom two rewards, our rakeback will be half these percentages shown above during these times (i.e. often it will be ~4%), and will average out to the percentages above over time (if we can open enough chests).
red chest requires 280 points.
blue chest requires 675 points.
gold chest requires 18,000 points.
Open 4 chests and you are moved up to next chest colour.
It is uncertain whether we will ever be able to open enough chests (to have any chance of hitting the less frequent awards), because as soon as you open 4 chests you are moved up to the next chest colour. You are moved up until you reach one you cannot beat and presumably you are then stuck earning no rakeback until Stars lets you move back down?
The old system had about 20 steps per level, this one seems to have 4 per level. This seems like another way they may limit how much we get back.
Thanks MaxShark, bnoise, Hood (I used your EV calcs
) and everyone else who posted.
Hope people find this helpful. I think the info is right, anyone feel free to correct this or add more info if you have any. Just trying to get it clear and in one place.