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Your plan for Monday 02/09 Trading?

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02-08-2009 , 09:32 AM

wiseheart

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 1,923

My plan is to pay careful attention to stimulus plan action tomorrow and pre- market trading on Monday. If things look even a bit dicey I will sell my 2 largest equity holdings and buy SKF.

However, not sure of my plan if it looks like their will be a stimulus plan rally, perhaps just buying a double long whole market SSO.

Both of these would be very short term plays of course.

Thoughts, your Monday strategy?

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02-08-2009 , 09:50 AM

durkadurka33

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 8,709

So, what's the surprise supposed to be? The contents of the package are public knowledge.

Above that, good luck predicting how the market will respond...I could see it go either way.

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02-08-2009 , 10:53 AM

The_Poker_Sage

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 482

Human's stupidity is unpredictable and infinite.

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02-08-2009 , 10:55 AM

Max H

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 3,131

I will be buying MDR calls and RATE puts. The rest of my plan is to monitor my remaining holdings.

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02-08-2009 , 08:07 PM

fanmail

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 32,698

This plan might be another classic buy the rumor, sell the fact.

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02-08-2009 , 08:39 PM

DoomBugle

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 213

Sell everything. The world's ending, don't ya know?

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02-09-2009 , 12:12 AM

wiseheart

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 1,923

This should be a fairly easy play, I mean, are we not in agreeance that there are two thoughts on what will happen on Monday? Either a big drop, or a big bounce.

Now, theoretically, if the bailout goes through without a hitch/bad news then there will be a bounce, and if the bailout gets held up or some correlating bad news, then there will be a selloff. I'm not saying this is rational, just what seems to be generally expected. For those paying attention should be able to jump on the trend and make a decent profit either way tomorrow.

Disagree?

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02-09-2009 , 12:28 AM

wiseheart

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 1,923

http://www.reuters.com/article/wtMos...49510820090208
Looks like a down day to me

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02-09-2009 , 03:09 AM

durkadurka33

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 8,709

Quote:

Originally Posted by wiseheart

No, not in AGREEMENT...why does it have to be big? There's nothing sufficiently new for Monday that wasn't known on Friday.

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02-09-2009 , 07:49 AM

#10

Fishhead24

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 2,899

Quote:

Originally Posted by DoomBugle

Sell everything. The world's ending, don't ya know?

It's only a matter of time...........and the United States may be one of the first facets of this ending.

FH

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02-09-2009 , 08:02 AM

#11

wiseheart

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 1,923

Quote:

Originally Posted by durkadurka33

No, not in AGREEMENT...why does it have to be big? There's nothing sufficiently new for Monday that wasn't known on Friday.

Well that is kind of the point. My reasoning would be that there were a lot of people expecting certainty today, and they don't have it. Being quite uncertain of what to do, they will take money out of the market. Not saying it is the correct reasoning, and I would love some good counter-arguments.

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02-09-2009 , 09:32 AM

#12

wiseheart

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 1,923

Well, based on more reports, I am leaning towards a heavy down day.

Bought 20 SKF and sold off half of my RTP in anticipation of this. My plan is to sell off the SKF this afternoon if there is a big drop. I'm thinking of putting a stop loss at $110 as I am willing to risk some intra-day wiggle on this one.

Anyone else bearish for today?

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02-09-2009 , 09:53 AM

#13

Max H

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 3,131

Quote:

Originally Posted by wiseheart

Anyone else bearish for today?

I intend to enter the day neutral and see how the trading develops.

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02-09-2009 , 10:14 AM

#14

durkadurka33

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 8,709

Quote:

Originally Posted by wiseheart

I dunno, I just always love using as many examples as possible to show how the Efficient Market Hypothesis is so laughably false. This is going to be another one.

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02-09-2009 , 10:21 AM

#15

Max H

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 3,131

Quote:

Originally Posted by durkadurka33

I dunno, I just always love using as many examples as possible to show how the Efficient Market Hypothesis is so laughably false. This is going to be another one.

"Markets can remain illogical longer than you or I can remain solvent," according to Dr. A. Gary Shilling. Illogic often reigns and markets are enormously inefficient despite what the academics believe.

This is what makes trading fun.

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02-09-2009 , 10:26 AM

#16

durkadurka33

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 8,709

It's not so much that markets are overall irrational...they're not...it's just that there are too many competing interests and rationalizations to compute. And, most importantly, markets don't jump in lockstep to the biggest news of the day as news shows see it (this tilts me to no end, daily). Markets usually only respond to a HUGE news event (ie, 9/11...Pearl Harbor...has to be HUGE).

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02-09-2009 , 08:15 PM

#17

mother_brain

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 2,695

Quote:

Originally Posted by durkadurka33

No, not in AGREEMENT...why does it have to be big? There's nothing sufficiently new for Monday that wasn't known on Friday.

Ding, Ding! Who wants to play again tomorrow?

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