Imo it is very hard, that's why so few companies succeed in doing this very thing.

He seems to be gaining experience fast though.

They cut down the PR a lot, don't use dealerships, add a lot of extra software in the price. The economies of scale are starting to have an effect now and will likely continue to increase as they scale from 100k to 500k cars per year.

Yeah, they are fiction, the future tend to be fiction. But I find them to be pretty reasonable. We will see in a few years how far off they were.

Yeah, that is is the big question, if they will manage to do just that.

I see an ASP around $42k with battery costs around $100/kWh and average 60kWh -> $6k in 2020 and a profit around $8k. Which leaves about $28k to spend on making the rest of the car.

Making a car for $28k is not impossible, plenty of other manufacturers seems to be able to do just that even while having to fit an ICE inside them.

Imo it will be tricky, but I am confident that they can manage it. They have surprised me before and now finally they have everything up and running. I put my money where my mouth is, now we will just have to wait and see where the dice lands...

As you can see way behind:


http://insideevs.com/ev-battery-make...ity-of-market/

It is worth noting that BYD has inferior energy density in their cells. And panasonic/tesla will be gaining market share here for the next several years with the gigafactory ramping up production, tesla has locked up the vast majority of Panasonic's production capacity and capital for years to come.

I wonder if TS is actually a huge bull on Tesla and just comes here with obviously incorrect information so he can get more useful responses and links/information about the company all in one place

You obviously know that the tesla business model is different from something like ford. If they can stay ahead of the curve in charging station tech and secure a solid patent, that almost has more potential than making the cars. Not that I'm saying they will - but you're using the fact that they've spent a lot of money on R&D in ways that we can't really see / producing results we don't yet know, and using that as evidence that their tech won't have an edge.

It sounds like you're maybe even more emotionally invested in seeing them fail than financially.

Gigafactory1 looks to be running at good progress:
https://electrek.co/2017/02/11/tesla...rgeoning-city/



Hopefully there should be enough batteries to launch production of M3 by summer.

Tesla is just brutalizing shorts here. Last short interest report showed something like 2% net covering during the last two weeks. Most of this run up has seen little to no covering with the massive near 40% of float sold short.

It's the same dynamic that drove it up in the first place - idiots who short, have it move against them, cover, reshort. They're almost as dumb as the longs. A surprise general bull market (thanks Trump) + mega shorted + heaps of dickheads who get excited when it runs up and buy more stock, thinking there's something real happening, + probably some manipulation by Musk and others calling back stock = a sustained run.

Bubble should pop after the Model 3 nonsense/earnings on the 22nd baring some rabbit. If it coincides with a market pullback, look out below. If it coincides with a capital raise at these highs, even better. Musk would be crazy not to rape his devotees for a couple of billion here - he's way short on the cash needed for Model 3.

I'm ecstatic. It's worth putting a very close watch on this. Any bad news is going to tank this so fast it'll make your head spin. Free money if and when it comes.

Any thoughts on the upcoming earnings report? They are still losing $6.53 a share in earnings.

I'm pessimistic on Tesla reaching 500k cars of production in 2019.
http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
Are insideevs numbers trustworthy ?

1. Ramping from a projected 100k cars to 500k cars shipped is not easy. They'll need to grow at rates far higher than they have up until this point.
2018 will need to be about 100% growth - 200k vehicles and then 2019 will need to be over 250% - 500k. While this is achievable in my mind with the new factories coming online, I'm pessimistic it actually happens.

2. The bulk of this new volume will come from a new model. Ramping production of an old model is easier than a new one obv. If they are unable to start shipping Model 3s by the end of 2017 for any reason, it seems unlikely they'll reach 500k in 2019.

3. Is there even enough demand? The worldwide sales number was 775k in 2016. This is 140% of 2015 which was 170% of 2014. A wild guess at 130% for 2017, 2018, and 2019 gives 1.7M units. Tesla needs to own 30% of that worldwide market. Currently they're at about 10% although they are selling a much higher priced product. Lower priced model3s could triple their market share I suppose. Competitors aren't sitting idly by.

4. How many sales dry up with the tax credit phase out? If Tesla ships their 200k car during the next 3 years, they'll have 18 months more of tax credits. 6 months of $7500, 6 of $3750, and 6 of $1875. While they aren't currently projected to exhaust the tax credit before 2020, the 50% drop after 6 months should have an impact.
Strategically for sales, they really need to have a very short production ramp in that first 6 months to maximize the credit to achieve the 500k deliveries.

The stock is hated so much right now it can miss badly, announce an equity raise and still pop higher on some great spin by Musk and company. How do you plan on playing this?

Purely a matter of waiting for something that's enough to rattle people.

Market has a lot to do with Tesla's buoyancy too. A market ripping through all time highs will take the darling high betas with it.

Regardless, if you have a little patience and can hold for a while, it's absolutely impossible to lose money here shorting this at $283. This is a gift from the Musk fanboys to your wallet.

$283 is absolutely cray cray, TSLA should raise capital (maybe even go for something insane like $5bn) and then have a cushion for the upcoming crash (this can't be that far away can it?).

I would short TSLA here at those numbers but I would have done so at anything $250+.

I've never understood why they don't do a $5 billion capital raise. It greatly improves the bull case, enough to offset the dilution.

Here you go bulls:
He's claiming with a straight face that Tesla has the potential to be a $1.5 trillion company. Worth 3x more than every major car company put together. Nearly 10% of the S&P 500. Just because.

I'm guessing Baron must be selling out his stake at these highs? He has a habit of saying senile absurd stuff about Tesla though.

Could some of you purported Tesla bears tell me when/where you shorted Tesla and what the cost was?

I find it utterly ridiculous to think any of you made money trading this.

Real companies & founders who are building something they believe is enduring don't dilute without good reason. This is evidence he isn't a charlatan as you claim.

That being said - I'd definitely agree they obviously should do some kind of an equity raise here to reduce risk / accelerate progress. Elon isn't going to dilute extra to have a bunch of extra cash if he doesn't think they need it or to make people feel better.

It'll be interesting.

SCTY was a massive dilution/payout to founders/insider enrichment/nepotism. It was widely ripped as unethical and why the stock languished in the 180s until the this recent market rip. He is obviously a charlatan.

I'm sorry, but the trust you place in "Elon" is ridiculous. His whole modus operandi has been shameless lies, PR spin, and dilution. Perhaps his research shows an equity raise this large won't go down well.

What about his latest autonomous promo video?

That's been soundly debunked as a pure fraud, proving me right yet again.

That is common knowledge. Thank you for pointing out a well known fact.

I don't have any trust, I have zero skin in the game for what it's worth. I hope he's wildly successful because of the benefits to society of moving to EV's and/or solar panels. I'd root equally hard for traditional automakers or other companies to make this happen.

You two having a conversation with each other is cute tho! #getaroom

Reports of union trouble at Tesla. Musk being the thin skinned bully/loser/fraud he is (nerd-Trump!), he mouthed off at the employee complaining about the horrible/dangerous conditions.

Union action is the last thing Tesla wants - he works his workers far too hard with overtime, etc.

Ahahaha. Who's more senile, 45yo Musk or 70yo Trump?

https://www.benzinga.com/general/tra...musk-interview
I'm dying...ahahaha. Tesla isn't priced for a crazy money burning loon in charge. I'd say $20-$30 is far value.

Seems reasonable