these numbers actually make me want to buy some puts for after q3 or q4. but definitely waiting for the 10q first

love it, when the ceo of my $320b company assures everybody by saying "we have to not go bankrupt".

So does anyone know, or could hazard a guess, at the sort of time frame for Tesla joining S&P 500? Are we talking weeks or months?

I am guessing 2 months at least, and probably 3 for next earnings report.

Infinite equity capital time.

I could see S&P wait another quarter or two to make sure they can maintain criteria.

It's not automatic. The next meeting of the committee is the third week in September. They could do it earlier, but I'd guess no. I would think in this case they would want some longer term results.

I ended up not buying any calls right now and just grinding my teeth. If we hit 2.5K I'm going to close as that is my max pain #/throw in the towel. But until then just ride it out. Unfortunately I let this get way out of hand, completely my fault due to having my interests elsewhere. My interests/focus is 100% in crypto right now, especially DeFI, and the decisions/complexity there is where I am really putting all my attention and it's time much better spent. Also as one more aside: I can't believe there is no discussion around this in BFI -- it's a complete loss/oversight that no one is really catching or understands what is happening in that space. There are opportunities/arbitrages there that if you can handle some risk/understand the mechanics of them you can make tremendous APR even on stablecoins. This (Tesla) has been a sideshow/distraction, and while the losses are quite large, the lesson I learned is if I'm not going to live & breathe Tesla for myself it's stupid to take a $ position on it.

Actually the biggest lesson I learned is that the stock market is a casino where it's rigged to a certain degree with the Fed. And it's so stupid to bet on fundamentals when we're in an environment that doesn't matter to them (at least for now). This isn't real capitalism where it's a true 2-sided marketplace with real price discovery, and I was betting on that being a thing like an idiot instead of realizing it's crony capitalism. I'd rather make $ than be right. There's an irony here where I do still agree with so much of the bear thesis -- Tesla stock is a joke -- what the bears (I) got wrong is things like cash flow, growth, revenue, mattering to the immediate future/near term future. If I was really aware I could have figured this out probably 3 months ago and saved a bunch of cash. Humbling lesson learned on my end + it is what it is.

Here’s some helpful advice for you:

You sound pretty emotional and negative about TSLA right now. Are you even aware the stock is at 1600-1700 right now? The stock has to go up another 50% to reach your stop loss. You are acting like you’ve already lost all that. It can get a lot worse for you. How can you say say “it is what it is” when you can still avoid 50% more potential loss with the click of a button?

You’re clearly too caught up in defeat and negativity to proactively make a rational decision about your money. You didn’t say one thing about whether your thesis is still valid from here. If anything, you implied your thesis was proven invalid, yet you stay in?! That is a tell that you have a major emotional leak here.

You said if you don’t live and breathe tesla you shouldn’t put money into it. Well that’s exactly what you’re doing by letting it ride. Get a grip man.

With what you know now, if you had no position and could do anything with that money, would you invest your current way overweight position in shorting Tesla. Clearly not, at least for that size. So just take the L and pay half price for your lesson.

Let your winners run, not your compounding losers.

Good luck.

Thanks. This is a hell of a ride and it's nowhere near over then. I'm long cos FOMO and I suspect that's the case for a lot of people.

I think you read my post wrong and read into tone where there isn’t any. I appreciate you trying to help but yeah no worries I take my losses like a champ and there’s no negativity/tears behind these words. I come from playing hsnl and can easily separate process/results — it’s just an autopsy of what is and winning or losing money doesn’t affect me in that way like it does most people.

As for why I don’t cash out now and book the L? Clearly if I thought 2.5 was a guarantee to get there I’d do so, but I think it’s better to pull a George Constanza here and realize my intuition on this has been wrong for awhile now and there likely will be some reversion in the coming months .. the only thing I really believed in and got right was 1.1k-1.6k.. which isn’t saying much lol.

Closing now could just as easily be compounding a mistake and yes I’ve sized this where even if it hits 2.5, my finances are fine. I think closing v keeping it open in this moment is fairly close in my eyes — basing this on a probability matrix which is how I like to do things.

Hate to break it to you bub, but crypto is just as rigged as the stock market. The whole crypto space has a smaller market cap than TSLA LOL - for now at least.

Well, the bears were certainly correct on fundamentals and they do matter. Here's Tesla revenue, no growth (in fact decline) for two years despite new products and markets:



I think what was missed is not the casino, but that Musk found the ultimate fraud with "Fully Self Driving feature complete by the end of 2019" and "1 million robotaxis in 2020", the ultimate donkey carrot, and people believed it as sober investment thesis with a fat tail. Even in the earnings call last night he used it to deflect a tough question. Essentially:

Q: How are you going to resolve between funding growth and making profit?
Musk (paraphrased): Well FSD means we don't have to resolve that. When it comes, and we're getting there, cars will be worth 5x what they are now. There will be millions of cars pulling in $100K each per year. So we'll have both massive profit and growth at the same time. Now obviously we don't want to go bankrupt, if we go bankrupt the mission dies, but apart from that we'll try to grow.

Alex Wice should have been the sign that this blatant fraud was a raging success. All of the active Tesla bulls in this thread are morons/losers/idiots, but he's the first guy who wasn't, and he actually believed it was possible that Musk would FSD feature complete by the end of 2019. It was an absolute zero/completely impossible for Tesla to achieve even level 4 and will be for years - Musk admitted as much on the call with his 2D-2.5D-4D embarrassment - yet people with no clue believed it was possible.

The other side of course was this market buyup from a giant retail pile in. Tesla is 3-10 beta on directional market moves depending on conditions, and with its low float and with the market going straight up for +50% in three months, that played a huge part as well (Tesla would be $400 if the market had languished around lows).

As for what happens next, there aren't any more catalysts and the price being maintained depends on the market staying up and S&P 500 inclusion. If either of those fail then we get a big correction.

I expect Tesla to secondary. They're still a fraudulent money losing no-growth car company with a product failing in all their mature markets (barely keeping revenue flat by expanding to the remaining ones) that needs vast amounts of capital to grow even if they weren't a fraud, so it makes sense to secondary soon to have enough cash to keep the fraud going as long as possible. Demand is terrible as evidenced by the frequent price cuts and how quickly you can get a car, especially for their Model Y.

What are the chances the bubble pops here and we see extreme capitulation

I put it goes up. I call it goes down.

Not as long as the rest of the market is bubbling

No recession in the corporate world

you and i should start a tout service and we can take whatever we agree upon and sell the opposite as lock of the week

Cleese, Astley, & Partners Financial Advisors

you need something like tree/rock/stone or greek mythology in that name, to assure people that you are a trustworthy and experienced advisory firm.

Somebody already has that niche. It's the guy who gives me stock advice.

In all seriousness tho, anyone who knows anything seems to be shorting the hell out of TSLA, with what appears to be logical DD, including Elon, yet I keep calling. It's the blind leading the blind over here.

Without general market going down I think Q4 deliveries would be next shot of any real pop. Since the regulatory credits sources are so opaque, its hard to know whether they are using banked credits from last year or pulling forward from next year in the FCA deal and along with accounting switches I don't expect the catalyst comes from earnings. However what they report on earnings are constrained by what they report on deliveries. Tesla will probably do a few fleet sales, non arm length sales, get shanghai government intervention and channel stuff to get to 110-125K deliveries in Q3 to set records. Consecutive quarters of falling EU/US share of strong falling market share of EV sales thing that can destroy the narrative (without any "hand of god" event scapegoats and strong enough so that it makes it into the media headline news cycle continuously for a few days). Wildcard is any green incentive programs US may introduce leading to and after the election. Mostly Tesla this year and next year is in position to take advantage of that.

Good post

2nd paragraph sums up my thoughts re: tsla perfectly at this point.

why don't you start a defi thread? I'd be very interested in reading.

The breakout of AR provided makes absolutely no sense at all

Yeah, and their defense of it on the call before any questions was really weird. And the content of the defense really unconvincing.

Also I believe this is the 3rd or 4th explanation?


Ending on a weekend
European sales long deposit in transit times (which DIT are considered cash, weird explanation)
Cant remember 1
Credit sales

In accounting, it's a pretty big deal that your schedules tie out to the total. They didn't even make it there.

Someone tell me to short asap.