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TSLA showing cracks? TSLA showing cracks?

06-04-2020 , 12:52 PM
Yeah, I think there's a good chance Q2 gets handwaved on Corona
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06-04-2020 , 01:27 PM
One reason i know im currently not/might never be a good trader, is the idea of missing out financially on the eventual Tesla implosion (while fully admitting it's possible it just survives on some level and never fully implodes) is something i can't really accept yet.
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06-04-2020 , 02:12 PM
I am also not emotionally rational about this stock and have trouble internalizing the bull arguments.
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06-04-2020 , 02:26 PM
me too dudes, the rest of the market is boring tbh
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06-04-2020 , 02:43 PM
I mean cmon

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06-04-2020 , 03:30 PM
The reasons for the stock going down are just as ridiculous as the reasons for it going up.

I wonder what would happen if someone asked him what he thinks about the stock price today.
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06-05-2020 , 01:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
I haven't actually thought about it recently. I trade Tesla short term. The majority of the time I have no clue what the price is going to do. When I do, I post and shove in, long or short.

Jan 2019 all hinges on M3. Musk has said he's trying for 6000/week by November. I would have to do an actual cash flow analysis to see if that's enough to keep their head above water given their obligations.

Personally I think they'll limp along while the stock price declines and go bankrupt as the M3 demand peaks (since they can't it make it profitably for $35K; the market isn't large enough for a $50K M3), there are recall problems or lawsuits. If neither of those eventuate then Model Y ramp will sink them. Credit and demand will dry up, and competition will be fierce.

Jan 2019: $200 (lower before then, but might get a bounce again late in the year as they do a raise, sort out M3 and pump the Y. 50/50 on the late year bounce imo)
Jan 2020: Bankrupt, but let's say $70 to cover some kind of buyout or SpaceX rescue.


Ultimately, given who holds (mostly institutions plus delusional retail weirdos) and the short percent, it'll need something major like a credit squeeze or obvious failure to make the morons at the institutions dump their holdings. Ackman for example held and bought Valeant (a similarly pumped up fraud with a PR savvy CEO) up at $250. Sequoia didn't dump until $100.




Taking the money of people who hate you, backing up their deluded views with cash, is a beautiful thing. It's too bad they don't want to play.

lol
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06-05-2020 , 02:29 PM
2019 was pretty spot on, not sure why that's bolded. M3 failed miserably, demand died and they went to brink of bankruptcy under $200 as predicted.

Then he pulled out the greatest fraud of all time when in deep **** - Fully Self Driving "feature complete" by the end of 2019, and 1 million robotaxis by the of this 2020 earning 10K/year each in profit for Tesla. He used that fraud to raise $3 billion dollars and do a fresh stock/sales pump. Even smart guys like AlexWice believed this conman, sending the stock soaring. People were buying multiple cars as Musk claim they'd appreciated 5x in 2020 (each used Model 3 worth $250K instead of $50K they paid for it).

Got to give credit where it's due, he's the greatest conman of our generation.
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06-05-2020 , 03:05 PM
Also I seem to recall you saying that TSLA was 100% doomed as soon as a recession hit. Weird how they hit their all time high stock price in the middle of a massive recession.
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06-05-2020 , 03:35 PM
Enron hit ATH after the recession started, it's pretty standard for the crap to rip late in bulls as retail searches out a story. In fact the crappier it is the better it rebounds in the bear market rally.

Anyway I'm on record as getting out of the way at lows ($190 area) and advocating covering shorts. I changed my mind almost a year ago when demand picked up again after Musk's epic fraud. It's definitely a short up here, but I'm waiting for this market positivity before adding to the puts I got at $790.

Where Tesla will go needs a rethink now with China strongly on his side. He turned his celebrity (and maybe SpaceX info?) into credit lines and I'm not sure how that plays out.
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06-05-2020 , 03:57 PM
Just think it's worthwhile to remind people what sort of certainty you were peddling when you were writing about TSLA's fate only two years ago and how dead wrong you were.
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06-05-2020 , 04:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorKeeed
Just think it's worthwhile to remind people what sort of certainty you were peddling when you were writing about TSLA's fate only two years ago and how dead wrong you were.
Quote:
I trade Tesla short term. The majority of the time I have no clue what the price is going to do.
Quote:
Personally I think
Its worthwhile to remind people youre so emotionally invested in TS being wrong that youve lost your ability to think clearly
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06-05-2020 , 04:07 PM
lol dude TS said for years that it was inevitable that Tesla was going to zero. That a recession would guarantee bankruptcy. You can believe what you want but TS knows its true.
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06-05-2020 , 04:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorKeeed
lol dude TS said for years that it was inevitable that Tesla was going to zero. You can believe what you want but TS knows its true.
I mean, I believe that we live in a reality where its still possible for Tesla to go to 0 so not sure what your point is
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06-05-2020 , 04:16 PM
I think my point is clear: TS was spectacularly wrong about Tesla for many years.
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06-05-2020 , 04:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorKeeed
Just think it's worthwhile to remind people what sort of certainty you were peddling when you were writing about TSLA's fate only two years ago and how dead wrong you were.
Certainty? I wasn't peddling certainty two years ago. You asked me for a guess, I said:
Quote:
Personally I think they'll limp along while the stock price declines and go bankrupt as the M3 demand peaks (since they can't it make it profitably for $35K; the market isn't large enough for a $50K M3), there are recall problems or lawsuits. If neither of those eventuate then Model Y ramp will sink them. Credit and demand will dry up, and competition will be fierce.

Jan 2019: $200 (lower before then, but might get a bounce again late in the year as they do a raise, sort out M3 and pump the Y. 50/50 on the late year bounce imo)
Jan 2020: Bankrupt, but let's say $70 to cover some kind of buyout or SpaceX rescue.

Ultimately, given who holds (mostly institutions plus delusional retail weirdos) and the short percent, it'll need something major like a credit squeeze or obvious failure to make the morons at the institutions dump their holdings.
Do those words sound like certainty to you? The above was pretty great analysis at the time (it was before Q1 demand collapse that nearly sunk the company and made great money if you bet it), and when there were strong signs of demand picking up at $190 I changed my mind on bankruptcy odds and argued black and blue with the shorts to cover (they didn't listen).

Really enjoying the hardon for me man. Thanks for quoting the good analysis I did. Been pretty great on Tesla, not perfect though.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorKeeed
I think my point is clear: TS was spectacularly wrong about Tesla for many years.
Was I "spectacularly wrong about Tesla for years" one year ago at $190 when it was -40% for 5 years while tech was +150% for five years? I said to cover at that point, been a mix of bullish and bearish since including 10 bags on corona puts if you covered when the market turned.

Tesla has certainly taken longer to fail than I thought it would, Musk turned out to be an epic conman who can push fraud after fraud. He really hit a home with FSD 2020 Robotaxis, that's still playing out. Without China I'd be sure they'd fail, with China it's a bit murkier, who knows what SpaceX secrets Musk has traded or can trade for a second home and special treatment/endless bank credit.

Last edited by ToothSayer; 06-05-2020 at 04:57 PM.
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06-05-2020 , 05:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorKeeed
I think my point is clear: TS was spectacularly wrong about Tesla for many years.
Too funny. Same story, different thread (see his S&P calls). Make a horrendous, clueless call, then furiously backtrack when someone points it out. At least he didn't decorate you with unoriginal insults (it must be Friday). This thread even features coordi running to Tooth's rescue again. A+
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06-05-2020 , 05:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorKeeed
lol dude TS said for years that it was inevitable that Tesla was going to zero. That a recession would guarantee bankruptcy. You can believe what you want but TS knows its true.
Yes, it's amazing that on the first day of a recession Tesla didn't go belly up.
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06-05-2020 , 05:27 PM
Musk says first cargo trip to Mars in 2022, and manned mission in 2024


It takes a certain kind of special to believe anything this dude says.
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06-05-2020 , 05:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by :::grimReaper:::
Too funny. Same story, different thread (see his S&P calls). Make a horrendous, clueless call, then furiously backtrack when someone points it out. At least he didn't decorate you with unoriginal insults (it must be Friday). This thread even features coordi running to Tooth's rescue again. A+
Your goal is to pump up your ego and soak up all the sun across every thread.

My only goal is to keep the threads moving and make money. If clowns like you could control your little lizard brain I wouldn't have to point out how stupid these posts are.
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06-05-2020 , 06:04 PM
i think its interesting psychology moment, this dynamic between tooth the mastertroller and the trollies (and he probably is just as involved emotionally as the trollies which is great ). but i see how most ppl are irritated by it, my advice - u make a habit to just skip it
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06-05-2020 , 06:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by coordi
Your goal is to pump up your ego and soak up all the sun across every thread.

My only goal is to keep the threads moving and make money. If clowns like you could control your little lizard brain I wouldn't have to point out how stupid these posts are.
Nope, incorrect assumption. My goal is to point out what a fraud Tooth is. He never admits he's wrong, backtracks and/or makes childish excuses (should be ban-able, this is trolling). The only thing he can't backtrack are numerous incorrect price calls on the S&P we made him post. As I said, he has nothing before Corona, and nothing after.

When ~8 posters from the trading thread want him gone, plus people here are calling him out, that doesn't tell you anything? I find it peculiar how you're always defending him. Anyway, carry on and "make money".
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06-05-2020 , 06:52 PM
Lol @ the shorts losing huge year after year and making up excuses to why they was right instead of admitting being wrong. Worlds smartest money is pouring money into the stock. Wall Street and 165 billion is wrong and butt hurt short sellers are right

Wonder what excuses ToothSayer has 5 years from now on. How much does the stock need to rise till he admits he was just delusional? Wonder how shameful he feels calling Musk and Tesla fraud for years while losing his net worth being stubborn & delusional.

Strong advice to everybody not to follow these short sellers advice. Half of them are trolls and the other half are broke.
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06-05-2020 , 06:59 PM
Solid First Post
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06-05-2020 , 08:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by :::grimReaper:::
My goal is to point out what a fraud Tooth is.
Weird life goal bro.

Here's the thing: anyone with a brain finds my analysis very valuable. People with a brain synthesize original ideas, right or wrong; they're like food. You don't have a brain (you have the lowest verbal intelligence of anyone on 2p2 I've talked to), so you don't get it. For example, I was literally the only bear screaming at people to cover when the demand picked up at $190, after demand death (which I also called in the post quoted). It's only the aspies and tards and personality disorders who agree with you.

Quote:
When ~8 posters from the trading thread want him gone, plus people here are calling him out, that doesn't tell you anything? I find it peculiar how you're always defending him. Anyway, carry on and "make money".
The forum made a beef thread so you don't pollute regular threads with your weird obsessions. Evidently you lack the tiny bit of self control and respect for others required to contain it to that. What can I say, some people are broken.
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