u need to have some kind of reason for the market to go up other than just everyone is selling i must buy! u coulda done that at dow 12k, 11k, 10k all the way down. make a decision that the economy is getting better, this company will do good, etc and then buy, not just that everyone is selling. anyways, all u hear on cnbc the past week is buy buy buy and u would get the idea that from watching cnbc every mutual fund is buying and every financial advisor is telling their clients to buy. if cnbc is a measure of ur theory u should be short

def agreed, i guess it's confirmation bias after i listened to a rogers and schiff interview where they said we were reaching good long term buy prices. schiff was very keen on emerging markets and rogers (unsurprisingly!) was bullish on commodities. schiff said how his picks how performed very poorly recently but said the long term trend was still intact.

all very interesting times.

and typical, my 6 months bonds expire 1-2 weeks just after the UK lowers it rates by 1.5%! urgh!

what to do with tomorrow. dow futures up 98, either gonna unload my DXD at the open or unload it right before obama speaks about his economic plan cause i assume he is not dumb enough to mention raising taxes

Can u explain further? Im sitting on UYG bought at close now and a lil handful of VIX puts, thats it.

Ive never done pairs trades before.

It's not just money. It could be control of the news, influencing the huge institutional investors and stuff like that. I was really shocked that there wasn't a lot of selling when the dow hit 9200. I mean WTF? Did people really think it was just going to rally back to 10k+ for like no reason whatsoever? Even if someone were investing for the long term, it would make sense to sell it then and buy it back later for cheaper.

Using this strategy, you would eventually make a common mistake among investors who are long during a rally, yet, still manage to lose money.

In the beginning of a rally, they take a small profit only to have their stocks continue to rise. These investors subsequently buy back their stocks at a higher price, often right at the time when the market is about to turn.

Meh. Sold my other half of UYG.
Im wussing out here.
dont like how things are selling off in premarket

I'm with ya. I got flat on this little rally. I'm not sure it is going to hold. We'll see what the rest of the morning brings.

it will cost you alot of money to hold that view when we finally bottom and do rally. Enjoy missing the first 30% move

I think we are setting up nicely for an afternoon rally. Seems like a great spot to get long with a stop at the lows of the day.

B UYG @ 8.10
B QLD @ 30.50

Agencia,

Pairs trades are just a way to isolate certain sectors/firms/etc. looking for a profit, without exposure to the generic market.

So long GS, short MS would be market neutral and you're just hoping if the market goes up that GS goes up more than MS, or if the market does poorly that MS falls more than GS.

So regardless of where the sector goes, you're just betting on relative performance.

My pairs trade would just be betting on the transports performing worse than the financials. However, I've decided against it.

Bought some Jan 09 $35 puts on CNI. I was surprised at the nice bid ask they had. I was expecting to have to settle for Dec options. I'm willing to throw more at this pig if necessary.

Now... ROLL OVER U SILLY CANUCK RAILWAY

You realize that 2% yield is about as safe as they come?

And the reason I took it off is simple: unemployment.

Everyone already knows about subprime defaults from a) bad borrowers who had no business borrowing in the first place and b) people who could have borrowed at a decent fixed rate but instead got themselves a loan that resets to 515164356 percent after year 2.

But now welre going to creep up on 800k-1 Million unemployment which is going to turn into defaults and/or the other ****ty options that broke people have, and it's going to take a while to see how it all pans out.

unloaded all my DXD at 77.02, bought USO at 49.96 anticipating a bounce after obama says he's going to suspend corporate and capital gains hikes

bought gs at 77.86. no clue what to do after the obama speech bounce but my gut says hold and sell early next week

Yes daddy. I actually think they could increase it substantially if they wanted.

It made me blink, but not wince.

I'll likely be buying some CP puts as well since CNI looks like the superior firm.

Looking like a decent long set up now.
See what happens when we get some volume and post obama

thx obama, i overestimated u again

Stopped out of SSO at cost. This whole day has been setting up not how I wanted to.

Gonna go to lunch and call it a day.

Took until the last five minutes to rally but the lows werent broken.

I sold half in case this move was bs but I suspect we could see good news out of Washington this weekend.

Also got out of DXD this morning. Will be back in shortly.

When do I get back into DIG??? Oil is still cheap, but they're saying it broke the $59 price barrier, and could continue to drop....do I get back in now....or hope it hits 59 again....

ah ok, I'm thinking about CNI and that whole sector. I'm wondering whether lowering oil price and worsening economy will both hurt it. Technically it looks like its gonna go back to where it was a few years ago. Could be an interesting long term put

Ya, I think their surcharges make oil prices in general a bit of a wash (unless I'm getting CNI and CP messed up, just boarded planeto st louis so I can't look right now).

Inn general they're bulk commodity movers and I don't think the downturn is near priced in yet.

Yeh Im thinking if they are bulk commodity movers they are gonna get whacked like shippers will. Maybe just less drastically.

friends:


i'm going to post this in here since this seems like a low content thread, and don't want to start my own:

i've come up with the idea that investing 500$ or 50 shares, whichever is more, per month in IGD (a high dividend yield mutual fund) is far superior than trying to follow the market and beating it since i play poker on the side and make 50k/year, don't have time/will to look into what i should be donig, and instead invest heavily in a dividend mutual fund for the next 15/20 years.

if u think "this is dumb" explain why and where i can purchase services that would outperform a passive high yield investment system.

thanks for the insight!