How much can I get for tooth's cell number?

Waiting on those jacuzzi pics. You posted them in your group chat so just post them here. Or do they not exsist?

Why don't you just post a activity report from your account showing your last month's trades? Seems easy. Used to do this for tax reasons. Took about 30 seconds to generate on ib. Would also match numbers from your account screen.

Would allow us to maybe match some of these 5 baggers with real trades.

It would be a super awkward hot tub session explaining why you lost 1k to someone you don't like on the internet while she's tired from working all week

"Emotional capital" - the terror of possibly having to admit to your Wifemother that you got owned for real money on the Internet, coming from not being as certain as the 99% you claim.

"I lost $1k betting a guy on the internet that he's not real. I got it in good though, the bet was super high EV! Let's go celebrate all the sklansky bucks we made!"

Still waiting on those pics. Or just any trade confirms or anything.

I'm content with my life you can call me all the names you want. Ad homs don't really phase me dawg.

"Emotional capital" is pretty funny; haven't laughed that hard in weeks.

Honestly, I really don't get why you think having a hot girl in a jacuzzi is all that impressive. Have you ever ventured outside the U.S.?

And if you take the screenshot for what it is, it isn't like he's super killing it either.

You spend a lot of time fixating on TS (for some reason), but you still don't understand him at all. He doesn't burn emotional energy on this, he gains it. In a way you're feeding the beast you're trying to defeat

It's only to be expected that someone suffering from such a huge inferiority complex that he has to post hundreds of brags to total strangers has a micro-penis that can't cope with the thought of his wife earning more than him.

Would it be possible to get the thread back on the bet? Anyone want to speculate on what they think the real odds of success are at this point? A lot of incomplete information especially when you have to read through TS posts. Worst case scenario for him is for the market to consolidate right here while the VIX slowly bleeds away EOY.

I'd say his odds are about 2%

2% aka 50/1? Look I'm as skeptical he will win as anyone but that seems way too low given its almost certainly going to be a hail mary lotto play. 5-10% sounds about right to me but maybe you are right. The range of the market usually contracts significantly as we get into the last couple of weeks, both in terms of volatility and volume across the board. Could've been won multiple times over already, TS I think has admitted that himself lol.

I thought original odds we're 5:1, but they were 2:1. 5% is probably closer. Considering he put himself as a 95% favorite, he probably put his chances at 10-15%

Odds are never really lower than 8:1 or so for someone with zero skill. If it was 2% or even 5% that implies enormous mispricing in the volatile expiring prices (say, SPY Wednesday puts with 30 minutes to go), and I don't think there are.

Great news is you'll have the chance to prove us and all the doubters wrong. Just don't disappear (with Brian's $) if things don't go your way...

Yeah pretty much. Reasonable chance I got Trump****ed here. There'll still be a few trades though with a decent edge that I can ride.

I'd put the objective odds at this point for a skilled trader somewhere between 1:1 to 3:1.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychological_projection

8:1 for a mouth breather to hit a trade, or series of, to turn 1k in 5k (6k????)... Interesting take.

How dare you?

Don't downplay the jacuzzi
Dude you're in your 50's and you hate stalk people on a poker forum. A game you certainly aren't and never were good at. Your existence on this forum and particularly in BFI is zero content and projection of hate. We are all considering the greatness of a hot tub full of muff while you share with us that your imagination has led you to think about what TS penis looks like

Spare us your cuckgressive approval of rare m-f role reversal. It's not interesting either

It's a 500% return on 1k which turns it into 6k.

Without doing the math, I'd guess that weekly Tesla calls and puts have been about 8:1 to return 6:1.

SPY puts after the spike up on FOMC days have been about 1:1 to hit 3:1 to 30:1. Although I suspect the bond rebalance/fear is diminished now that they've somewhat rebalanced and the fed signaled dovishness last Wednesday.

Maybe you can argue that these aren't mouth breather spots though.

The last two months, any "sell the rip" strategy crushed it. If the buyup continues with the trade war off the table, any "buy the dip" strategy is going 6x it if leveraged. It's at least 8:1 a sustained buy the dip strategy can return 6:1 between now and Jan. That's a common tard thesis/play that many did play and did well at until they blew up. You can get nice returns with certain ruin in the long run on ****** theses if you don't care about risk of ruin.

The crowd are enjoying some classic, timeless comedy, and TS is doing his utmost to entertain as only he can.

Having cranked up the suspense to maximum I'm fully expecting him to pull some finagled trick out of his arse by the end of the year and claim victory. Anything less would be a huge disappointment for the collected throng and even more so for his loyal band of fanboi followers of which you, regardless of forum or topic, are always the senior cheerleader.

It's funny because I think both of you have completely misunderstood what the other one was saying

I mean, I've been in jacuzzies with hot women, and ugly - and never thought about sending pics to brag about it. But then again I'm much more awesome than most here so I guess that doesn't help much.

Sounds about right. If anything it's assuming negative skill. A monkey throwing darts would do a little better.

Take any options spread that pays out 5:1. In an efficient market it should cost you roughly 5:1 plus the bid/ask spread to make that bet, so likely somewhere between 6:1 and 8:1 depending on how liquid your options are. If that weren't true it would be trivial to generate alpha on one side or the other.

Completely random example that will illustrate the point (though I didn't bother to look for one that's particularly close to those numbers):

Tesla Dec 21 2019 Calls
395 strike: Bid/Ask 2.78/2.87
400 strike: Bid/Ask 2.06/2.18

Buying the 395-400 call bull spread with a market order would cost you 2.87-2.06 = 0.81. This pays out $5 when Tesla trades above 400 at expiry and $0 if it trades below 395 so you're getting 4.19 to 0.81 which is a 5.17 to 1 payout.

Taking the other side, selling this spread and paying the bid/ask, you'd get paid 2.78 - 2.18 = 0.60, so if the true odds are worse than 4.4 to 0.6, or 7.33 to 1 you could sell this spread and crush.

The middle of the market is at 2.82-2.12 = 0.70 so the market is saying the true odds are roughly 4.3 to 0.70, or 6.14 to 1. Tesla calls probably have a mouthbreather premium built in so the true probability is likely closer to the 7.33 to 1. It's incredibly unlikely it's much worse than 8:1 or you'd crush selling these options.

So yes, a mouthbreather can buy a random options spread with the desired payouts and be better than 8:1 to make 5:1 on his money.