Quote:
Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2
Tooth is finally going to open a real money account. We have a bet that he can't get it from a $1k deposit to $5k by the end of 2018.
I'm starting to doubt whether he can actually open an account.
It's $1K to $6K.
Quote:
Originally Posted by smoothcriminal99
if he's going to post real time trades why don't you just take $500 and invest the way he is??? (or half of the bet if you are betting significantly more) seems like an arbitrage opportunity. I don't understand why he wouldn't just invest the money if he thinks his avg return is high instead of the bet unless it's solely for pride.
$1000 is a meaningless amount of money, this is just for fun. Brian and I were having extended disagreements about the nature of risk and return, so I offered to take 2:1 odds (my $500 to his $1000) that I couldn't turn $1K into $6K by the end of the year. As a rational person, he snapped called - the odds if I have no edge have to be 5:1 at least I would say (I haven't run the math), and Brian, being a rational, numbers based fellow who follows orthodoxy, believes that no one has edges that large.
I think I'm about 95% to get there. That's what makes this bet sweet - we both think we are taking by far the best of it, so it's going to painful to pride if either of us lose.
I offered to post real time trades on 2p2 but Brian wanted a play money account, for reasons I can't quite understand. I pointed out how easily these are gamed and offered to make a secondary real money account with $1000 in it. I'll post real time as well.
So that's where the bet is. It's a duel between gentleman at 1000 paces on my shooting ability and in a sense on market efficiency, which Brian mostly believes in I think (bar maybe edges of double SPY return or something), and I don't.
I don't know what a fair line is - 5:1 maybe? syndr0me's offer above seems pretty generous.