odds of 0, .25, .50 rate cut next week?
and its effects on the markets?

odds seems good for that .25 cut that seems priced in market but wondering
what others have to say.

and whether the .50 is really a possibility considering a lot are saying that

1. the effects wont be known for a while anyways and that its best to save them for later
2. the economic benefit from increasing lending might be offset by longer term damages caused by inflation. whose numbers i find unbelievably low in the latest CPI report. but who knows maybe they shave the numbers down and only the fed really knows. heres an interesting article. dont really know how valid it is but seems somewhat plausible based against 1980.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/68672-cpi-2008-vs-1980

i sometimes think they should just make a more transparent index. the beer/ milk/ bread/ gas/ electricity index. see how the numbers turn out there. im sure its not going to be just .3%

3. bernanke said he was worried about inflation during last fed cut and rumors of other ppl within fed v worried about the long term damage of inflation

My guess is .25..............and the markets will respond very lightly.

Strictly a guess........

Oh well, the stimulus checks should spur the economy on ...........lol.

I have said before the last cut that they need to stop cutting so much so fast. We have gone over this going into the last few cuts, but the cuts don't mean what they used to. I think a .25 cut is the smartest way to go, and it seems that it could happen. Only a week or 2 ago, .50 seemed much more likely.

we cut rates, dollar goes down more, oil goes up more, less chance of Europeans cutting rates, dollar down even more, oil up even more

I'm not sure how cutting rates actually helps the economy at this point. I think we have take our medicine.

Hey, I'll take no cut. I just don't think thats what will happen, and the markets will crap on no cut..but I would not have any problem with no cut, tho the market would crap on it I guess.

Fed Funds futures are pricing in a 80% chance of a 1/4 point and 20% chance of no change at the close today.

To look farther out, although far less reliable, the market is expecting this 1/4 point to be it bottoming out here and rising again slowly in the fall.

here are the probabilities:

http://www.clevelandfed.org/research...unds/index.cfm

A few weeks ago a 50 percent cut was 50 percent priced in. I like how things changed, it bodes well for us all.