Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Business, Finance, and Investing Making money, investing in markets, and running businesses

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 06-18-2008, 06:21 PM   #1
David Sklansky
Administrator
 
David Sklansky's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,787
Susquehanna Partner Wins 10K Stud Bracelet. Donates 100% to Charity

I am speaking of Erik Brooks, Jeff Yass's partner. Is there anyone here who thinks they would be favored over him trading options?
David Sklansky is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-18-2008, 06:35 PM   #2
stephenNUTS
banned
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 3,290
Re: Susquehanna Partner Wins 10K Stud Bracelet. Donates 100% to Charity

Donates 100% to Charity

GG
stephenNUTS is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-18-2008, 08:25 PM   #3
stinkypete
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
stinkypete's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: somewhere
Posts: 15,713
Re: Susquehanna Partner Wins 10K Stud Bracelet. Donates 100% to Charity

i'm curious what the point of this post is
stinkypete is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-18-2008, 08:32 PM   #4
CrushinFelt
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 4,650
Re: Susquehanna Partner Wins 10K Stud Bracelet. Donates 100% to Charity

Just sell out of the money options and it's gg. Just hope it doesn't blow up over the life of the competition.
CrushinFelt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-18-2008, 08:39 PM   #5
kem
journeyman
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: 77 Mass Ave.
Posts: 393
Re: Susquehanna Partner Wins 10K Stud Bracelet. Donates 100% to Charity

Quote:
Originally Posted by David Sklansky View Post
I am speaking of Erik Brooks, Jeff Yass's partner. Is there anyone here who thinks they would be favored over him trading options?
I'm pretty sure the answer to this is "yes"
kem is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-18-2008, 08:44 PM   #6
Yowserrrs
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 5,347
Re: Susquehanna Partner Wins 10K Stud Bracelet. Donates 100% to Charity

Quote:
Originally Posted by David Sklansky View Post
I am speaking of Erik Brooks, Jeff Yass's partner. Is there anyone here who thinks they would be favored over him trading options?
If I said yes, would you set something up?
Yowserrrs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-18-2008, 09:49 PM   #7
Thremp
banned
 
Thremp's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: I lurve bewbs
Posts: 36,452
Re: Susquehanna Partner Wins 10K Stud Bracelet. Donates 100% to Charity

Quote:
Originally Posted by Yowserrrs View Post
If I said yes, would you set something up?
No, but you're probably a fave because his book with math errors is required reading there.
Thremp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2008, 07:49 AM   #8
David Sklansky
Administrator
 
David Sklansky's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,787
Re: Susquehanna Partner Wins 10K Stud Bracelet. Donates 100% to Charity

Quote:
Originally Posted by stinkypete View Post
i'm curious what the point of this post is
I was just wondering if some people here had the audacity to think they could be favored over someone who was better than them at poker, had a 20 point IQ edge, had spent twenty years studying the subject, and the endeavor was highly technical. Anybody who could believe that, could never be convinced that guys with Eric's type of brain could quickly learn to surpass them in less obviously technical endeavors.
David Sklansky is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2008, 08:22 AM   #9
Yowserrrs
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 5,347
Re: Susquehanna Partner Wins 10K Stud Bracelet. Donates 100% to Charity

Quote:
Originally Posted by David Sklansky View Post
I was just wondering if some people here had the audacity to think they could be favored over someone who was better than them at poker, had a 20 point IQ edge, had spent twenty years studying the subject, and the endeavor was highly technical. Anybody who could believe that, could never be convinced that guys with Eric's type of brain could quickly learn to surpass them in less obviously technical endeavors.
So why dont you make any final tables?
Yowserrrs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2008, 08:50 AM   #10
bull0x
centurion
 
bull0x's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 112
Re: Susquehanna Partner Wins 10K Stud Bracelet. Donates 100% to Charity

owned
bull0x is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2008, 10:40 AM   #11
APXG
grinder
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 669
Re: Susquehanna Partner Wins 10K Stud Bracelet. Donates 100% to Charity

Quote:
Originally Posted by David Sklansky View Post
I was just wondering if some people here had the audacity to think they could be favored over someone who was better than them at poker, had a 20 point IQ edge, had spent twenty years studying the subject, and the endeavor was highly technical. Anybody who could believe that, could never be convinced that guys with Eric's type of brain could quickly learn to surpass them in less obviously technical endeavors.

other than poker this also describes LTCM, merton / scholes, finance academics, etc. all of them pretty much suck at real-world options pricing in the long-term when pitted against an opponent who only bets when he knows their models are wrong. perhaps this only happens 0.1% of the time -- but it obviously doesn't matter, b.c. the opponent is never forced to bet or post any ante. maybe SIG guys have learned to make very radical adjustments to their models for specific situations, but if anything, such an occurence would most likely be INVERSELY correlated with iq.
APXG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2008, 03:27 PM   #12
David Sklansky
Administrator
 
David Sklansky's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,787
Re: Susquehanna Partner Wins 10K Stud Bracelet. Donates 100% to Charity

Quote:
Originally Posted by APXG View Post
other than poker this also describes LTCM, merton / scholes, finance academics, etc. all of them pretty much suck at real-world options pricing in the long-term when pitted against an opponent who only bets when he knows their models are wrong. perhaps this only happens 0.1% of the time -- but it obviously doesn't matter, b.c. the opponent is never forced to bet or post any ante. maybe SIG guys have learned to make very radical adjustments to their models for specific situations, but if anything, such an occurence would most likely be INVERSELY correlated with iq.


Most people with 130 IQs like to point to the real world incompetance of many ivory tower 170 IQs. Problem is they forget about the multi talented 150 IQs who can run circles around them. There is no inverse correlation. (I am of course using IQ scores as a stand in for intelligence, even if that is not really true.)

As far as your specific point, the intuitive fellow who spots the rare time the model is wrong, misses all the opportunities to make money exploiting small discrepancies between related options that can be middled.

The fact is that these guys turned 100K into well over a billion.
David Sklansky is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2008, 03:34 PM   #13
RikaKazak
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 9,630
Re: Susquehanna Partner Wins 10K Stud Bracelet. Donates 100% to Charity

So do you just make these ******ed posts to try and act like a baller? It kinds of makes you look like a 60+ year old that has too much time on his hands.

edited to add: he's better then me in regards to the stock market, but I'd love to play him in FR cash. (same goes for you david....FR 2+2 table ftw?)
RikaKazak is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2008, 03:53 PM   #14
mtgordon
old hand
 
mtgordon's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 1,511
Re: Susquehanna Partner Wins 10K Stud Bracelet. Donates 100% to Charity

So you're just saying that you think highly of Eric Brooks or are you trying to somehow (as it seems) extrapolate this to yourself?
mtgordon is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2008, 04:10 PM   #15
David Sklansky
Administrator
 
David Sklansky's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,787
Re: Susquehanna Partner Wins 10K Stud Bracelet. Donates 100% to Charity

Quote:
Originally Posted by mtgordon View Post
So you're just saying that you think highly of Eric Brooks or are you trying to somehow (as it seems) extrapolate this to yourself?
Neither. My OP was just one of hundreds of posts I've made over the years trying to persuade people that their misguided idea that the more mathemetically minded are not highly likely to be favored over the less mathematically minded, in almost endeavor, needs to be corrected. They get confused because even if the former is ten times more likely to succeed, they will be in the minority of success stories.
David Sklansky is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2008, 04:16 PM   #16
borovoselo
old hand
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Toronto
Posts: 1,512
Re: Susquehanna Partner Wins 10K Stud Bracelet. Donates 100% to Charity

O/U on OP's IQ?
borovoselo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2008, 04:25 PM   #17
stephenNUTS
banned
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 3,290
Re: Susquehanna Partner Wins 10K Stud Bracelet. Donates 100% to Charity

Quote:
Originally Posted by borovoselo View Post
O/U on OP's IQ?
His IQ might be 375 for all I care .........but he just might be the biggest buffoon I have ever encountered.For a successful poker author and part owner of 2p2 it is truly amazing how he constantly makes a fool of himself with his moronic posts/threads.

Its bad enough dealing with the many idiots on most forums ......but David is truly in a league of his own.
stephenNUTS is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2008, 05:13 PM   #18
APXG
grinder
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 669
Re: Susquehanna Partner Wins 10K Stud Bracelet. Donates 100% to Charity

Quote:
Originally Posted by David Sklansky View Post
Neither. My OP was just one of hundreds of posts I've made over the years trying to persuade people that their misguided idea that the more mathemetically minded are not highly likely to be favored over the less mathematically minded, in almost endeavor, needs to be corrected. They get confused because even if the former is ten times more likely to succeed, they will be in the minority of success stories.
while the above is almost 100% correct, i still disagree that the #1 mathematician in the world with his 17 nobel prizes has a higher chance of success 'in almost any endeavor' than a well-rounded 150-160 IQ. in the earlier post, i was not referring to 130s or anything below 150.

the problem for the 190 IQ mathematician is that many endeavors that reward iq also REQUIRE an understanding of one's own fallibility (the financial markets being #1 in this category by miles). it is much easier to attain a firm grasp of fallibility for a 150 IQ than it is for a 190 -- b.c. it is totally foreign for the 190 that any of his logical models are bound to experience semi-random and relatively frequent discontinuity. humans have resistance towards understanding fallibility (and a general propensity towards false confidence), so it is unlikely that even too many of the 150s will attain it, but the 190s basically have no chance.
APXG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2008, 06:37 PM   #19
stinkypete
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
stinkypete's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: somewhere
Posts: 15,713
Re: Susquehanna Partner Wins 10K Stud Bracelet. Donates 100% to Charity

Quote:
Originally Posted by David Sklansky View Post
Most people with 130 IQs like to point to the real world incompetance of many ivory tower 170 IQs. Problem is they forget about the multi talented 150 IQs who can run circles around them. There is no inverse correlation. (I am of course using IQ scores as a stand in for intelligence, even if that is not really true.)

As far as your specific point, the intuitive fellow who spots the rare time the model is wrong, misses all the opportunities to make money exploiting small discrepancies between related options that can be middled.

The fact is that these guys turned 100K into well over a billion.
sklansky,

why do you think it is that jeff yass likes to point out that the guys that make all the money aren't really super smart while the super phd quants make next to nothing? (he does single out jim simons as the only exception. if you happen to talk to him could you ask him why david shaw doesn't qualify? it's my impression that he's neither dumb/uneducated nor poor)

also, 1 billion? thats it?
stinkypete is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2008, 07:41 PM   #20
CrushinFelt
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 4,650
Re: Susquehanna Partner Wins 10K Stud Bracelet. Donates 100% to Charity

So the point of this thread is to point out the fact that the OP doesn't understand the fact that knowing how to do something and actually doing it are very different? Yay.
CrushinFelt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2008, 08:43 PM   #21
VanVeen
adept
 
VanVeen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: atop mt.ubermensch
Posts: 906
Re: Susquehanna Partner Wins 10K Stud Bracelet. Donates 100% to Charity

sklansky,

im curious. do you think the 'mathematically minded' (no meaningful referent, sorry, but let's say it has one) are favorites to be the most proficient at convincing people they are favorites to be the most proficient at most things? as you contemplate that, i want you to consider just how much time and energy most people devote to the task of convincing others of their worth. a lot, amirite?

you're playing a game you're not very good at and one any rational person would realize he can't win. instead of making a thousand more posts on the subject, why not just accept that you're not changing anyone's set of personal values, especially given your modest talents at the art of persuasion. it's beyond futile.

oh, damn (see what i did, there?).
VanVeen is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2008, 09:16 PM   #22
skindog
adept
 
skindog's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 918
Re: Susquehanna Partner Wins 10K Stud Bracelet. Donates 100% to Charity

Quote:
Originally Posted by Yowserrrs View Post
So why dont you make any final tables?
I'm sad DS ignored Yow's sick burn. I lol'ed.
skindog is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2008, 11:56 PM   #23
TrainHardDieHard
journeyman
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 304
Re: Susquehanna Partner Wins 10K Stud Bracelet. Donates 100% to Charity

Quote:
Originally Posted by skindog View Post
I'm sad DS ignored Yow's sick burn. I lol'ed.
From the many posts i've read by Yow, i think he's a prick....

but i did almost shi t myself reading that burn.
TrainHardDieHard is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2008, 12:05 AM   #24
David Sklansky
Administrator
 
David Sklansky's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,787
Re: Susquehanna Partner Wins 10K Stud Bracelet. Donates 100% to Charity

Quote:
Originally Posted by stinkypete View Post
sklansky,

why do you think it is that jeff yass likes to point out that the guys that make all the money aren't really super smart while the super phd quants make next to nothing?
I said the same thing.

"Most people with 130 IQs like to point to the real world incompetance of many ivory tower 170 IQs. Problem is they forget about the multi talented 150 IQs who can run circles around them."

It's important to realize though that any problem related to a super high IQ relate to psychology only. If a well adjusted successful smart adult found a way to get even smarter he would also get richer. Period. (People who bring up super genuise's foibles seem to think this isn't the case.) Jeff is fully aware of this point so he hires those super genuises. If there was a pill that could make him one himself, I am sure he would take it. (I will admit though that such a pill would be dangerous if taken at too young an age)
David Sklansky is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2008, 12:22 AM   #25
David Sklansky
Administrator
 
David Sklansky's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,787
Re: Susquehanna Partner Wins 10K Stud Bracelet. Donates 100% to Charity

Quote:
Originally Posted by VanVeen View Post
sklansky,

im curious. do you think the 'mathematically minded' (no meaningful referent, sorry, but let's say it has one) are favorites to be the most proficient at convincing people they are favorites to be the most proficient at most things? as you contemplate that, i want you to consider just how much time and energy most people devote to the task of convincing others of their worth. a lot, amirite?

you're playing a game you're not very good at and one any rational person would realize he can't win. instead of making a thousand more posts on the subject, why not just accept that you're not changing anyone's set of personal values, especially given your modest talents at the art of persuasion. it's beyond futile.

oh, damn (see what i did, there?).
I believe I am persuading many people. Just like I did regarding poker. The reason that isn't obvious is because, just like with poker, there are a small subset of vocal practitioners in various fields who realize the trouble they are in if it becomes widely known that studying math, logic, and probability, and other general thinking techniques, will have you surpassing dumber mediocrities with years of experience, as long as you have a year or so under your belt.

When I came to Vegas ther were scores of moderately talented, seat of their pants, poker pros. They all went broke when faced with the young studious smarter kids.

Same thing for Jeff Yass when he hit Philadelphia and faced seat of the pants options traders. They too went broke. (Someone metioned that nowadays the quants will get killed those few times their models don't apply. But what about in the days when only they knew about the models?)

Like the seargeants who refuse to believe that the young West Point graduates will quickly surpass them, there is that vocal group who can't admit I am right about this stuff. But there is also that silent group who is paying attention and learning the general skills of thinking I advocate. And that second group who is understanding that those kids are the ones they should hire.
David Sklansky is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:15 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive