Holy Hannah Batman, what is going on?!?

It always ends in tears

It hasn't even started yet. Comex inventories are draining further into record low territory to keep price down. But price won't stay down, because it has been mispriced for years, which has created a structural deficit. More people have demanded silver (especially industrial users) than would otherwise do so, because price has been too low.

There are reasons the bullion banks who run the comex and lbma want silver prices low and they go beyond protecting the solvency of the many parties who are net short on comex and will be ruined by an equilibrium price.

Physical silver is owned by individuals around the world who distrust fiat currencies and counterparty promises. Many of these individuals would be willing to trade silver for gold at the right gold-silver ratio, as physical gold also avoids fiat currencies and counterparty risk. And so, as silver rises, some precious metal investors rotate from silver to gold as the gold-silver ratio offers them a more attractive gold price in terms of silver.

When gold rises, this signals distrust in fiat currencies and in sovereign debt, because gold is seen by many as a safe haven alternative to sovereign bonds. Gold has already risen as both American political parties have sowed the seeds of distrust and dislike of America, especially from the Chinese government, who has been accumulating gold over the past several years, acting as a large contributor to gold's price rise. Gold's price rise over 5,000 was accompanied by a rapid selloff in the DXY, which was already under pressure due to recent unpopular actions of the American administration in foreign affairs. When it dropped under 97, large market price silver sell orders materialized and combined with margin hikes and a suspension of traditional circuit breakers due to technical rules, a massive paper selloff of silver occurred.

The paper silver derivative market (futures and options) trades at many times the size of the physical silver market so large sell orders due to paper deleveraging can crash price, but they cannot create the physical silver that has been draining from comex vaults (and which the LBMA was short of as bars had to be flown from New York and China this past October) which industrial users and physical metal investors demand. Inventories have continued to drain and meanwhile, March open interest remains incredibly high - multiples of available registered inventory. This is because the shortage has caused deferred settlement that has largely been pushed to March. Many contract holders expect physical metal but such metal is scarce and growing scarcer.

Silver mining is a business. If you don't think silver miners weren't hedging all future production at $100+ your crazy. Silver bubbles, spikes and retreats every 10 years or so. Top is in. It will level higher (40's, 50's?) and then chop for a significant period of time.

Selling silver deliverable in 6 months won't help clear March open interest.

I'm not going to say all miners but the majority of publicly traded miners do not hedge their output because their investors are explicitly looking for exposure to metals prices. There is also not enough liquidity out on the forward curve for producers to hedge all of their future output even if they wanted to. You would see the forward curve collapse into deep backwardation if what you say is true because most speculator longs are only trading the active contract; not 6, 12, 24, 36 etc. months out on the curve.

Most silver production is a byproduct of other metal production anyhow. I'm sure these miners are just accepting these price spikes in silver as pure gravy.

Nah. They have locked in ridiculous profit for years to come. It's a business not a speculation. Their costs have not increased but their profits have quadrupled. Only a fool leaves that on the table.

Not sure why you ignored the first part of my response explaining why large miners don't hedge their output.

While precious metals from international shipments will price basis LBMA (and I don't have access to their data), just look at CME open interest and volume for silver the past month out on the curve. Virtually nothing.

Because, Because they DO hedge their output. It would be fiscally irresponsbile not to. They have shareholders and it isn't in their best interest to "roll the dice".

As I already said, shareholders are the main reason they DO NOT hedge.

Having purchased copper concentrate from Codelco, Grupo Mexico, FCX, PT Freeport Indonesia, Southern Peru Copper, to name a few, I know none of them used to hedge production. Maybe things have changed though. I guess we can see when Q1 financials come out.

As for small miners, it's not like they can just hedge out all their production even if they want to. Hedging can require a lot of capital, especially if you are talking about multiple years of production.

Yeah You said that, you also don't run a major silver mining operation. Trust me they hedge! You wanna play the swings? You trade the commodity. You wanna run a profitable business you hedge!

Next leg up is starting now. Next week and especially next month looking very bullish for silver.

LOL, and you do? If you run a publicly traded commodity producer, you do not hedge because your shareholders want exposure to commodity prices. Simple. Putting a hedge on is speculating.

I traded copper, zinc, lead concentrate (almost all of the worlds silver is produced through base metal production), I know how these contracts were priced and I know how each side thought about pricing.

Tell me more about how miners price their output.

Things are looking extremely bullish for silver now. 2026 will be year of metals.

I think we will get to 115$ by end of the year

if it reaches 115 ill celebrate by getting myself a nice car

I really don't think we get to 115 at the end of the year anymore. too much **** going on for it to climb that high now. oil might get to 115 way before silver does. no nice car for me this year haha.

Fundamentals of the silver bull havent changed at all. Its just pushed back by the iran war. It will come...

I still like silver long term but I unloaded some cuz its meh right now. will we get to 85 eoy

brutal day for silver lucky I sold some before the tank