Um, gold and silver are the safe haven currencies.

Good point. They would be idiotic to disclose any info before a sale as the value would plummet if they announced they were planning on unloading a bunch. I probably shouldn't have even mentioned that as it's an unfounded rumor and not central to my reason for holding gold and silver. As others have alluded to, the US govt must facilitate their spending either by borrowing or devaluation. Once QE2 expires, it seems highly unlikely that they will be able to sustain their current borrowing pace without raising rates, and raising rates would be very bad for the economy. So the most likely short-term solution is QE3 imo, although eventually something's got to give and I think the US Economy is headed for rough times. All of this points to gold and silver continuing to rise, and while I don't really want to see it happen, it seems almost inevitable.

Well put. There are NO tricks left but more printing. The fed and our president are for wall street not main street and doing the right thing by tightening policy will kill (well hurt) big banks and wall street alike.
I think they are delaying the inevitable which is a terrible recession, by doing so they are compounding said recession.

Yup, I agree with this. I would like to know your opinion (or anyone else) as to why all of these factors are not reflected into the price. It seems that it isn't. Short-term factors always changes things short-term, but why are the solid fundamentals not fully reflected in the price and thus, wiping out the profit opportunity?

I'm not going to read all 400 pages of this nonsense but I am going to tell you that this move in silver is 90% the result of a super small commodities market that has bene targeted by the investment community. By the investment community I mean retail investors of which a high % are day traders and nut jobs on the internet. I watch the flows everyday in SLV and its so dominated by retail that its not even funny. The volumes don't even loosely correspond with the amount of silver actually out there.

Now, let me help you guys understand how this will play out, eventually it will end and silver will down 60% from here. I don't know when or why but eventually it will collapse and it won't be because of QE2 or the dollar or any economic bullsht though those things might be the initial spark.

I just initiated a short position selling upside calls in AGQ because people are willing to pay 120 vol for strikes 20-25% out of the money that expire in 3 weeks.

That is all. You can resume another 400 pages of pseudo economic analysis and other garbage.

I think we will just carry on making money and you can carry on losing money.

Thats all.

Schiff on Bernanke and the dollar

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/break...152631496.html

Silver graph adjusted for inflation:
Source: Professor Tom Fischer of Wuerzburg University

http://www.moneyweek.com/%7E/media/M...450&h=300&as=1

Stinger,

I posted link yesterday to the china 2 trillion usd story that was news. Yes obviously its just talk and china can talk all they want because bottom line only actions matter. What they end up doing, who knows, but news is confirmed.

Are any miners locking in substantial forward sales? Even if they take a huge discount, locking in a few years production at $40 or even $30, if they were profitable or breakeven at $10-$15, has to ensure mind-boggling profits if they have any kind of operating leverage at all. AFAIK, miners have been dogging it up compared with SLV.

Many of the large gold miners did this up until ~2010. At which point they were all basically forced to abandon the practice due to large losses on their positions.

Also mining costs are not fixed. Increasing energy prices would push up the breakeven point.

Rest assured we are on page 28, and it is clear to most of us reading or skimming 28 pages doesn't take much time or effort. 1 thread, 3 months, 65%+ up around $19.25 since OP, many of us have heard similar jargon from PM bears for over a year now.

Wrong. Plenty of new retail money has flowed in but saying 90% of this move (whatever time frame you put on that) is retail is just laughable.
And what percentage weighting would you give SLV for silver price discovery? Asia is running the show, the Comex trade is a joke at this point, SLV a lapdog.

Referring to SLV stocks or above ground stocks of silver?

So $19 and change. With no reasoning or theory.

Don't know when or why... please expound great sage. Please tell us two more things that will not cause a collapse in silver. If we corrected to $37ish from here over the next couple months, it would be very healthy for the rally (this however is unlikely). This rally is not going to be infinite or timeless and no one thinks that way. Your drivel is painful and yet I am entertained, and I thank you for that.

Your analysis was the most garbage post from any bear here. Hands down. There are going to be more edges developing as the rally moves into mania (believe it or not we aren't there yet), there is money to be made on the short side, but it is too advanced for you to win long term the way things are right now imho.

Inflation adjusted high: $130-150/oz (depending on your intraday-close, inflation adjusted start point etc.)

Monetary base adjusted high: over $400/oz

Currently silver futures still in backwardation out to 2015.

As someone who is bullish PM's and has a smallish position in silver, the gold/silver ratio is something I am keeping my eye on. Is anyone else thinking in the near future converting some to gold? As it gravitates to the mid 20's I may pull the trigger. Thoughts?

cool thread. idk if I'm bored and thinking crazy but what do ya think of this idea.

I'm thinking about buying a penny sorter and hoarding/tying up 10k+ on a few tons of copper in the form of pennies.

Chance of them being worth 10 cents in twenty yrs?

Almost zero.

Its gonna take one HELL of a lot of pennies to be worth anything in terms of copper.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penny_(United_States_coin)

History of compositionYears Material
1793–1857 100% copper
1857–1864 88% copper, 12% nickel (also known as NS-12)
1864–1942 1946–1962 bronze (95% copper, 5% tin and zinc)
1943 zinc-coated steel (also known as steel penny)
1944–1946 brass (95% copper, 5% zinc)
1962–1981 brass (95% copper, 5% zinc)
1974 Experimental aluminum variety (test strikes only, not circulated)
1982–present* 97.5% zinc core, 2.5% copper plating

Fedorfan asked the same question about half way down this thread below. There's some discussion afterward.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/11.../index245.html

Not sure were on the same page. The sorter separates the copper coins from the zinc, I would only keep the copper.

You can't melt them atm, but the melt value is 2.7 or so. Some say these will be out of circulation before long, and if copper continues to raise, these could be a somewhat risk free good investment

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I67hRqx6DW4

Still gonna take a lot of pennies. A LOT heh.

I was thinkin of this also but i was thinkin more for the short term, just don't think i could sell enough copper in the short term...and really don't wanna hoard a ton of pennies for a long term...

since i think i missed the silver bandwagon i was trying to find something else when i came across the copper hoarding

reminds me of a live nit ABC reg that's predicting all those crazy internet kids winning money with their loose 3 betting etc all will go broke at some point, doesn't know how or when exactly but they will.

Regardless of my attitude on silver, we should all be on page 5. If not, change your settings...

When loose 4 betting becomes standard and they don't adapt, obv

Honestly I'm glad you made money. I dont want anyone to do poorly.

But you are a moron as are most of the people in this thread - the gold silver multiple hasnt gone from 50 to 30 bc of QE2, Asia, or any of your other bullsht.

lol care to expand on that?

People randomly making decisions with the amazing coincidence of them all buying silver at once?