Up front - I will say that I have no experience nor solid knowledge about stock market investing (only basic). I am interested in your opinions on subj.

1) Long Am4ya stock before end of 2014 report, exit 1-2 month after their report.

2) Immediately short the stock. Exit right before:

a) Middle 2015 report
b) End of 2015 report
c) Middle 2016 report
d) etc

Please explain why you are making those moves. Do you feel like the 2014 report will be +ve with the Q1 2015 report -ve? Why do you feel this way?

i don't know about amaya, it's on the canadian exchange...

if you would refer to pokerstars which will be launched on wall street..

1) this sounds good maybe?

2) you can't short the stock right when it has the ipo, or right after that, it needs to be available stock to borrow to short them, actually i don't even know the pricing, the float and stuff like that.

by the way, i think taking some put after a bit after or before the earnings report could be a good play, or maybe not, it all as to do with was the market thinks the stocks are worth it.

i believe number of ps will be very pumped and fake and they will be worth it a lot less, the ipo will be a scam were amaya will make huge money leaving to small fish with a scam... something that will have an easy boom and then go bust pretty easily when and if market finds out the number are fake..

It almost never makes sense for retail investors to short stocks. The reason is the interest you're paid on balances (or lack thereof) and debit you pay on margin. Your trade has to make up this difference to be profitable. The longer you hold it, the harder it becomes.

It's a bad time to short it. They are doing all of this cost cutting and rake increasing to make their financials look better. In the short term, this will most likely be effective and the stock could go up. Investors don't understand that they are ruining the business long term, they'll just see short term improvement and drive the price up.

Long term it's a good idea. They are ruining Stars and making bad decision after bad decision, but it would be better to short it once those long term effects start kicking in. Players aren't fleeing the site yet, no competitor is gaining marketshare yet etc. Wait for that stuff to happen.

We have an edge here, we'll see the signs before the market and the analysts do, so just short when you start seeing signs of things that will negatively impact their numbers.

If they ruin Stars like I think they might, this stock is going all the way to $0 because they will have to default on all that debt and file bankruptcy. You don't need to short it early. Once it starts tumbling it will take awhile to go all the way down. Just be patient.

Definitely seems like a good idea to short the stock and while it makes sense what people are saying to long it real quick first, at the same time, might not be worth it to get too tricky if you're not on top of the stock market

(just looked at the graph and it doesn't look to epic for shorting imo) but also I literally am pretty clueless in terms of any stock market technicalitys

This is precisely what I meant and why I am following all the Stars-related activity closely (all the small topics, even the silly ones like the one about printer paper in NVG combined together will (or will not) create some kind of a snowball effect and change things in the long run in one direction or another). People who spent years making a living on Stars and reading 2p2 know the industry quite well, and although they (we) have access to the same public information as everyone else - we can analyse it correctly (and sooner) and thus - make a +EV trading move, if one arises.

From what I've been following right now - Am4ya/Stars relates shares should keep moving up for now. I expect the next Stars report to be a good one. And there are good reasons to speculate that some time, not too far into the future, a large fall will start and continue for a while. Thats what I think for now, and once more and more information comes out my opinion might change.

I do agree with this. And although EMH teaches us that once you read publicly available information - it already has been reflected on the stock price - there are still always the ones who made that "reflection" happen - the ones who got to that information first, by chance or by calculated effort. In the case of Am4yaStars - it will be us, poker players.

^^^
All this is IMO, once again, no actual experience with trading.

i think the next 2 or 3 stars report will be astonishing, then someone will find out what's really going on, the reports are somewhat fake, eps projection for the next 5 year will be pretty bad and all, and so there is value in shorting that top.

i want to give a small advice, don't concentrate only in this stock, only cause you play poker you think you know better... i got an heart, but i don't think i'm a cardiologist.

generally you got an edge over people that read numbers, understanding the underlying sometimes is crucial, sometimes you can only trade by momo and make a ton of money not knowing what you're holding... the market provides you unlimited opportunity to make (and lose money) every day... maybe it will take several years for let work this thing, so maybe right now you can look for other opportunity.
why it will take several years? because the people have to know, the price are made up by what the people think and not by what the stock is really worth it....

keep watching it, but don't think as shorting am4ya is the trade of the year or the trade of the life, cause it's not...

m2c

i semi-agree that this might be a decent shorting candidate out in time as the sizzle fades (sorry mixed metaphor type grammar).

but i'm not sure how raising the rake is bad for the company in the long-run. it's not really like wal-mart increasing their prices 50% and i'll go to one of 10 other places to buy stuff.... and cutting the sponsored pro's is like the biggest no-brainer in history.

with poker, pokerstars is mostly it these days.

i wish instead of complaining some poker celebs would start a new lower rake site and commit to playing X hours a week on it. find 300 top players willing to commit to the site for cheap .15% stakes or something like that.

as far i am concerned players have only themselves to blame with all their fan-boy "OMG DURRRR plays at X site" instead of focussing on the basic economics of the game.

increasing rake is not necessarily going to bring the company down , recreational players don't care much about rake, pokerstars is punishing the winners so they can offer more incentive to the losers.