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September Trading Thread September Trading Thread

09-30-2011 , 10:29 AM
NFLX at some point has to consider that repeatedly pissing off customers is a bad idea.

Logged on last night to watch the next episode of an old TV series I'd been going through on Watch Instantly, and it is gone. It's missing from my queue. It's missing form my 'recently watched' list. Just gone. I had just watched an episode two night's before.

I do a search for it and I find it listed as a DVD only rental. No indication that it was ever available as Watch Instantly. No notice saying they were sorry it was no longer available in streaming format. No indication that it ever might be again.

Yeah, I guess they lost the rights to it. And, yeah, no company likes to make a big deal out of stuff like that.

But they really are not doing anything to promote customer loyalty, and since they are picking up more and more competition, they really need to pay attention to little stuff like communicating effectively with customers.
09-30-2011 , 10:41 AM
Thanks Johnny and cts.
09-30-2011 , 10:56 AM
I'm pumped right now, one of my junior miners just got bought out (first time I have ever been on the right side of a takeover)

TSE:AVM (Anvil Mining)

Bought a small position last summer for some Africa exposure / resource exposure, makes this pounding hangover a little bit more manageable.

Now if someone would just buy out Suncor and Teck Cominco for $60 or so per share I can retire.

In other news the general markets are looking as dumpy as always (but I am not allowed to chatter so good luck all)
09-30-2011 , 11:11 AM
As an aside to the above, I have been in and out of dozens of small cap resource stocks since the crash in 08/09, and maybe its my bias towards energy but NONE of the oil juniors I owned (own no oil juniors now - to risky) ever got bought out, in fact most went kaput or declined quite a bit and still are rock bottom on the charts...

Its funny that the appetite in the market for takeovers is so heavily skewed to copper/gold plays and from where I am sitting noone seems that interested in oil and gas plays at these levels, some of these companies are down over 50% from their 52 wk highs, seems a bit ridiculous to me.

Why useful oil and gas when you can buy uesless gold.
09-30-2011 , 11:16 AM
Let's just have a capitulation day or a rally day and get this crap over with. I love the analysis on a daily basis.

"Stocks tumble on Europe worries"
"Stocks rally on Europe compromise"

Look mommy I'm on CNBC.
09-30-2011 , 11:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by awval999
Let's just have a capitulation day or a rally day and get this crap over with. I love the analysis on a daily basis.

"Stocks tumble on Europe worries"
"Stocks rally on Europe compromise"

Look mommy I'm on CNBC.
That can`t happen on a light Friday trading session really.

Sure some artificial fakeouts to the up or downside are quite possible the real market will show its face (ugly?) on Monday when everyone will be trapped by the gap
09-30-2011 , 11:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by highpsiguy

Its funny that the appetite in the market for takeovers is so heavily skewed to copper/gold plays and from where I am sitting noone seems that interested in oil and gas plays at these levels, some of these companies are down over 50% from their 52 wk highs, seems a bit ridiculous to me.
nice work on that takeout

which plays besides SU?
09-30-2011 , 11:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by highpsiguy
That can`t happen on a light Friday trading session really.

Sure some artificial fakeouts to the up or downside are quite possible the real market will show its face (ugly?) on Monday when everyone will be trapped by the gap
The range is SP 1120-1220 right? We haven't broken it iirc since August?
09-30-2011 , 12:00 PM
I've liked Cenovus Energy since the spinout from Encana, great growth portfolio for the next ten years and an above average dividend in the sector @ 2.5% or so currently, I think along with SU, CVE can be held long term and I have stuck them both in the RRSP (at 24 currently I think they will both be huge long term winners)

My ACB on CVE and SU are both around $30 (maybe a tad higher with SU) I recently added a small position to my core SU holding, and havent added to CVE in quite a while...

I like PXX (BlackPearl Resources) and I think it will be taken out one day for $8-$10...

This stock could be had for mere pennies in Dec2008, and I wish I loaded up.

Now that PXX is off 50% I am getting excited about its valuations and could see a double from here 52 wks out.

Last edited by highpsiguy; 09-30-2011 at 12:03 PM. Reason: Disclosure: I currently do not own PXX
09-30-2011 , 12:10 PM
Another stock on my radar screen is RMX (Rubicon Minerals)

Agnico Eagle recently purchased 21.x million shares @ $3.23

Shares are currently asking $3.45. This is probably a company that won't be around in a couple of years.

I dont own this either, but its purely based on my sentiment towards the broad based markets at this point in time.

If I thought this was a good buy the dip opportunity I would probably be buying:

POT, TCK, SU, GG
09-30-2011 , 12:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by highpsiguy
I'm pumped right now, one of my junior miners just got bought out (first time I have ever been on the right side of a takeover)

TSE:AVM (Anvil Mining)

Bought a small position last summer for some Africa exposure / resource exposure, makes this pounding hangover a little bit more manageable.

Now if someone would just buy out Suncor and Teck Cominco for $60 or so per share I can retire.

In other news the general markets are looking as dumpy as always (but I am not allowed to chatter so good luck all)
nice on brah chart looks sexy for you on AVM

As for Suncor - I wouldn't hold my breath on them being bought out. That is a core Canadian brand the same way Potash is - and if a Conservative gov't wouldn't approve a Potash sale there's no fng chance they would allow a foreign company to buy out Suncor. And there is no Canadian player that can that on.

This was further cemented in stone when Suncor bought out Petro Canada - the main reason why Petro Canada always lagged the other big Canadian O&G's was built into their price the feeling that they weren't going to be sold to a foreign corp. (the whole this is a former nationalized company).

You saw the effect of this when Suncor bought PC a few years ago - there was a lot of moaning / lukewarm reaction to Suncor stock b/c that was pretty much the writing on the wall for the potential gains in Suncor being acquired in the future.
09-30-2011 , 12:46 PM
^ And I say the above as someone who absolutely loves Suncor and how they do business, they are my favourite client (for engineering work)
09-30-2011 , 01:20 PM
MP, yes I know SU will never be bought out one can wish though lol...
09-30-2011 , 01:23 PM
I tendered already but its funny how an $8 offer gets you 7.70 in the market...
09-30-2011 , 02:32 PM
EK contemplating bankruptcy
09-30-2011 , 02:42 PM
So tempted to pull the trigger on POT right now...
09-30-2011 , 02:50 PM
CAD is unravelling against USD, glad I didnt fall into the trap 150pips ago...

Nice quarter end window dressing
09-30-2011 , 03:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by highpsiguy
So tempted to pull the trigger on POT right now...
pcln ****tin out too
09-30-2011 , 03:21 PM
I would never touch a stock like priceline.
09-30-2011 , 03:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BeachJustice
SPXU crushed it today, bought a bunch on monday.
I've been in this since SPX was ~1190 on Tues and it has not disappointed. Selling 30% of my position today and holding the rest looking towards an exit if SPX hits 1120.
09-30-2011 , 04:57 PM
As the month has now closed out and I, for one, have been out celebrating Rosh Hashanah and am looking forward to October. This is always a tough time of year for me because it marks another year of my dad's passing. Sorry to be so off topic, but he was a great options trader and helped build the foundation for my knowledge and we never had closure so it's always good to put September behind me.

Anyway, I have been studying the Greece situation, and I am struggling to figure out how they're going to meet the fiscal requirements in order to get more funding. And even that is a band aid on a broken bone. My point being that they are forecasted to run out of cash by mid October, so keep an eye on it. That's only 10 trading days.

Also, although I don't take short positions, AAPL looks like a good entry in here. It has held up remarkably well because it is a market darling through quarter end. But, even the ECRI is now coming around to the recession camp, saying that we could already be in one and if not now by the end of the year according to their leading indicators. Apple is not immune to a top line miss in a global slowdown (may be fine for the quarter just ended). Ttheir balance sheet is like a fortress and cash flow is tremendous, but it has also been one of the best performing mega cap stocks in the quarter. I'd initiate a position here with a stop just over $400, and a target closer to $300. 80 down 20 up is a decent ratio and if the market breaks below 1120 S&P and waterfalls, they'll get sucked down with it.

I also still like BAC as a short for 4 reasons: 1) Countrywide/mortgage mess. 2) Flatter yield curve reducing profitability 3) Likely need for higher loan loss reserves as well as losses in the priv equity portfolio. 4) Customer defection over their debit card fee issue taking away cheap capital.

Scorecard for September: Bears 1, bulls 0.
09-30-2011 , 05:14 PM
09-30-2011 , 08:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Diamondback
As the month has now closed out and I, for one, have been out celebrating Rosh Hashanah and am looking forward to October. This is always a tough time of year for me because it marks another year of my dad's passing. Sorry to be so off topic, but he was a great options trader and helped build the foundation for my knowledge and we never had closure so it's always good to put September behind me.

Anyway, I have been studying the Greece situation, and I am struggling to figure out how they're going to meet the fiscal requirements in order to get more funding. And even that is a band aid on a broken bone. My point being that they are forecasted to run out of cash by mid October, so keep an eye on it. That's only 10 trading days.

Also, although I don't take short positions, AAPL looks like a good entry in here. It has held up remarkably well because it is a market darling through quarter end. But, even the ECRI is now coming around to the recession camp, saying that we could already be in one and if not now by the end of the year according to their leading indicators. Apple is not immune to a top line miss in a global slowdown (may be fine for the quarter just ended). Ttheir balance sheet is like a fortress and cash flow is tremendous, but it has also been one of the best performing mega cap stocks in the quarter. I'd initiate a position here with a stop just over $400, and a target closer to $300. 80 down 20 up is a decent ratio and if the market breaks below 1120 S&P and waterfalls, they'll get sucked down with it.

I also still like BAC as a short for 4 reasons: 1) Countrywide/mortgage mess. 2) Flatter yield curve reducing profitability 3) Likely need for higher loan loss reserves as well as losses in the priv equity portfolio. 4) Customer defection over their debit card fee issue taking away cheap capital.

Scorecard for September: Bears 1, bulls 0.
Diamond - I agree with all that and we share the same market sentiment. My question is about shorting Apple. Yes, I agree with the current macro situation, AAPL has more downside than upside and I don't hold any of that stock anymore. However, why not short many of the other names that don't have Apple's incredible financials and have much loftier valuations as % of earnings?

For example, the first 3 names that come to mind are CRM, CMG, and GMCR since I either added to my put positions this week or initiated one in each name. Other compelling shorts are AMZN, PCLN, OPEN, LULU, bidu, BJRI, etc. All of these have high p/e's, are priced for explosive growth, have weaker financials than AAPL, and have nice momentum fueled runs etc. Anyway, just curious why you'd pick AAPL to short when there appears to be much lower hanging fruit still available.

Also, BAC could possibly have a lot downside, what about MS with their CDS's increasing significantly? Also been reports of them having heavy European exposure.

Last edited by BeachJustice; 09-30-2011 at 08:36 PM.
10-01-2011 , 12:34 AM
just curious, are you long anything BeachJustice?
10-01-2011 , 12:50 AM
Shorting AAPL doesn't make much sense to me. A best of breed company with a cheap valuation. I plan to start buying puts in WLT, ACI, and TCK come Monday. Will probably buy more puts in GS.

      
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