PDEX - My Largest Position - Page 4 - Business, Finances and Investing Forum

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PDEX - My Largest Position

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07-13-2016 , 02:03 PM

#76

BCI23

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 570

Quote:

Originally Posted by n00b590

This has been the best performer in my portfolio by a long shot, thank you sir!

Any other stocks you like right now, especially anything else in the "above avg companies run by great mgmt" for the long haul category?

Have gotten a few questions about this on here and privately. I don't want to post other names in this thread but i would like do something either here on 2p2 or maybe elsewhere. I'll post an update here when i figure out what i'm going to do.

Quote

07-16-2016 , 06:40 PM

#77

PokerFiend4LYFE

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 393

Any guess as why this dropped 10% on Friday?

Quote

07-17-2016 , 09:21 PM

#78

CBorders

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 16,500

A lot of people taking profits. I'm a Swenson/Cabillot fanboy, gonna let it ride. Props to OP for nailing this one and sharing with us.

Quote

07-18-2016 , 01:20 AM

#79

BCI23

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 570

Quote:

Originally Posted by PokerFiend4LYFE

Any guess as why this dropped 10% on Friday?

Hard to know for sure but likely just variance. The large increase in trading volume is likely to bring increased volatility (up & down) in the stock price going forward here.

Quote

07-18-2016 , 09:02 AM

#80

Hoggins

newbie

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 18

Do you think this is a good position at current price?

Quote

07-19-2016 , 03:54 PM

#81

AllinPoker

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 379

Thank you for sharing BC, I appreciate all your updates/research. Took a position today at 5.78.

Quote

08-05-2016 , 05:44 PM

#82

bigt2k4

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 15,296

Jumped in a couple days ago @ 5.01. Anyone know why short interest is picking up? (Still insignificant, but has increased about 5x over the past 4 months)

Quote

08-06-2016 , 02:52 PM

#83

BrianTheMick2

Long way to go and a short time to get there.

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 19,434

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigt2k4

Jumped in a couple days ago @ 5.01. Anyone know why short interest is picking up? (Still insignificant, but has increased about 5x over the past 4 months)

Yes. Short interest increased because more shares have been sold short. Hope that helps.

Quote

08-06-2016 , 07:03 PM

#84

bigt2k4

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 15,296

Thanks for the help, there could be reasons like:
This naturally happens as volume picks up on a stock
" " " " " market cap increases for a stock
Some other reason I am not familiar with

Quote

08-07-2016 , 11:20 AM

#85

AllinPoker

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 379

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigt2k4

Jumped in a couple days ago @ 5.01. Anyone know why short interest is picking up? (Still insignificant, but has increased about 5x over the past 4 months)

I would guess bc it was way overbought way past earnings, and the next momentum going up will be near the next earning report coming out mid September. Lots of people chasing the upswing getting out on the way down. Or protecting wins and selling ofF. Shorts will be buying back shares beginning of September I think.

Quote

08-09-2016 , 10:52 AM

#86

BCI23

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 570

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hoggins

Do you think this is a good position at current price?

Definitely not a bad price under $4.50 here. Earnings in September should be really good.

Quote

09-07-2016 , 12:40 PM

#87

AllinPoker

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 379

Anybody know what date the earnings report comes out?

Quote

09-07-2016 , 02:13 PM

#88

bigt2k4

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 15,296

google finance says sep15th, but estimated. Probably next week or the week after

Quote

09-09-2016 , 03:49 PM

#89

Smokey_The_Bear

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 1,739

I went long today at $5.28, and $5.35

Interesting to note in the 10-Q on page 25, what effect does this have on subsequent years?

- "The decrease in sales to this customer is due in part to a mutual agreement between our customer and us to allow them to take deliveries of existing purchase orders in full over a mutually agreed extended term ending in December, 2016. We believe that the demand for this orthopedic shaver product has declined."

Quote

09-11-2016 , 10:45 PM

#90

AllinPoker

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 379

Smokey, he went over that in post #59

I also added some more shares to my position this week and all last month I bought a lot.

Quote

09-12-2016 , 01:40 PM

#91

BCI23

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 570

Earnings should be out sometime this week or early next week.

Here is my estimate, could see scenarios that are better here especially from a revenue perspective but SG&A could also be higher so I think this is a good median, hopefully they crush it.

Rev: $5.85m
GP: $1.58m
SG&A: $1.09m
OI: .$5m
EBITDA: $.645m

Quote

09-12-2016 , 04:29 PM

#92

BCI23

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 570

And the company just filed another automated share buyback plan here after hours, the third one they have filed in the last 3.5 months. The company is desperately trying to buyback stock, love it.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...5/f16-0832.htm

Quote

09-14-2016 , 07:31 PM

#93

AllinPoker

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 379

I wonder if they were the ones buying like crazy 3 weeks ago when it went from low volume at the $4.55ish range to $6+ in 2-3 days big volume.

Quote

09-14-2016 , 11:08 PM

#94

BCI23

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 570

Quote:

Originally Posted by AllinPoker

I wonder if they were the ones buying like crazy 3 weeks ago when it went from low volume at the $4.55ish range to $6+ in 2-3 days big volume.

Likely not the company buying. The automated plans are pretty restrictive on how much stock they can buy in a day and the price ranges are also pre-set, i'm guessing the buy price was set somewhere under $4.50 so i'm not sure how much stock the company was actually able to buyback over the last four months but we'll find out when the 10-K is released here shortly. The runs up to $6+ i'm pretty sure was driven by day traders.

Quote

09-15-2016 , 12:26 PM

#95

twelve yr old

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 1,867

Earnings most likely tonight after the close. Seems like they typically report on a Thursday.

Quote

09-15-2016 , 03:54 PM

#96

Malachii

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 4,074

Do they typically not post an earnings release date in advance of earnings?

Quote

09-15-2016 , 07:54 PM

#97

BCI23

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 570

Results look fine, top line came in $500k less than I was expecting I think i either misinterpreted the backlog from last quarter or some shipments got delayed ill find out. 100k shares repurchased in last 3 months (2.4% of outstanding) at $4.55ish. They landed some massive purchases that will have their largest customer buying $12m/yr starting January 2017. Sounds like the earnings in Nov and Feb will probably be similar to the last two quarters and then the May release should be a monster probably $7m+ which would put them on a runrate toward $28-$30m revenue.

Quote

09-15-2016 , 08:25 PM

#98

AllinPoker

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 379

Very good

$12m/yr new purchases for 2017 and 2018 sounds amazing

Quote

09-15-2016 , 08:30 PM

#99

Malachii

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 4,074

Good to hear. I'm curious to see happens tomorrow. Seems like the underlying business is doing well but on the surface it looks like kind of a ho/hum quarter.