Hello folks,

I trade currencies full time but I also trade stocks.

NFLX

Just came to the Canadian market and for $8 per month I get unlimited crappy movie rentals.

This stock looks way over extended and it looks to me as if it's coming close to a top.

I don't know if I will short it just yet because of the delusional madness of crowds but is it really worth it's current valuations .. I don't think so.

It has bubble written all over it.

I would like to hear some experiences from American customers about the services.

Thanks

It had some good fundamentals two years ago. But, it is hard to pick a top. It could go to 300 400 even on momentum alone. The CEOs are not crooks here. Their real growth seems to be netboxes. Netflix will be on new apple tv. BBI just filed bankruptcy. If people switch from satellites to netboxes, more revenue. I think earnings could be $10 in 2 years so I don't think it is that overpriced. I would stay away.

but hedgies love it

pretty stupid to call a top, could very easily hit 300 or whatever steel said. It's the best in it's industry and leading the market. Atm it's over extended, but definitely looking for a pullback and going long

cramertard says buy buy buy

http://www.cnbc.com/id/39307681?__so...ext|&par=yahoo

I've owned since $55...but only 25 shares...thinking I will ride it out and sell if it gets back to $120.

Disclaimer:I'm a n00b investor.

cut your final loss at 200dma, and some if it closes below 50 dma, imo

Is this your advice specifically for NFLX, or in general for stocks that take off like this one has in the past year?

so far in this thread I dont see one real argument for buying netflix.

NFLX definitely looks like it's ready for a pullback, but that doesn't mean it's going to. Price has risen quickly over the last week. If levels hold it looks like it could pullback to 150. That is just technical.

Could NFLX go much higher? Probably. However, if people are starting to feel it's too high to get in now, then it probably is. If you're trying to get in fundamentally because NFLX is blowing everyone out of the water, then you have to think about your margin of safety. I don't do much value investing, in fact, I rarely look at stocks, but, imo, with price moving up so fast, you'd have to think your margin of safety is pretty slim right now.

The markets overall have been on a tear lately. Anything that spikes like the markets have been lately is bound for a spike back down, or some semblance of a pullback. Everything just feels like it's overextended. I have heard that the S&P is headed to 1300 by the end of the year. It's up around 100+ points since I heard that.

*Take it for what it's worth, I don't claim to know what I'm talking about.

BIDU, CRM, NFLX, AAPL, FFIV, VMW, SOL, JKS, RADS all are longs until heavy volume selloff. When NFLX, AAPL begin to turnover, it'll take a bit to slice thru the 200dma and then time to short.

And yes, most are overextended at this point, so waiting for a pullback before adding. Mentioned in the sept trading thread BIDU was a long on 9/20 for 90.00/share and will use that as an example. Market is zooming right now, so yes there will be pullbacks, but while it's still treading up, there's really no ceiling to these stocks. Just because NFLX is on a tear DOES NOT mean just buy it now. It is too risky at the current buy point. I'll post when I do get in on NFLX. I went long on JOBS about 15 trading sessions ago, when it was up like 7%, and then the next day it immediately came right back -7%, then exploded upwards for a solid gain (27$->39), however I had to sell before that since it wasn't the best buy point and sticking to personal cut loss rules

nflx will eventually go like blockbuster...its just a matter of time before a competitor does it better, streams the movie better, creates a better system.

that is what happens when you dont control the "inventory"...they just control the distribution of it...for now...until the "producer of the inventory" gets greedy and wants their own piece of the pie

maybe i will dabble with a short at 160

This seems like a horrible plan. Bittorrent probably did more to hurt Blockbuster than Netflix did. Netflix has succeeded in the era of Bittorrent, and that says a lot about how much demand there is for that particular method of distribution.

I think this is a classic case of growth not meeting demand.

It is super hard to call a top on these kinds of stocks but I just don't see how they can live up to the hype because they don't have the infrastructure.

Right now, netflix has ~15-20m subscribers. HBO/Cinemax have 40m+. I see absolutely no chance that netflix will end up with fewer subscribers than HBO/Cinemax. Lots of room to run imo. I'm not going to comment on a technical entry point, just that I'm not betting against them.