Irrational exuberance meets reality.

I'm surprised it's not down 20%+, I mean it's still up 90% YTD coming off an insane multi year run. Expected move was around 9-10%, how it trades tomorrow will be interesting and could be telling for the rest of earnings season. Granted Q2 for Netflix has been historically their weak point, missing their own expectations is a disappointment but doesn't seem so bad given the crazy out performance up until now.

Number of subscribers >>> Profits in this new age of everything but profits matter.

Their international segment went from -$13M in gross profits Q2 2017 to $298M in gross profits now. That's remarkable, no?

But no, screw profits, subscriber growth didn't meet expectations.

I'm also saying this as someone who is short NFLX albeit for lol money.

Is this guy a billionaire?

I just saw this on Twitter, the guy has $350k (now more) in his robinhood account (who knew anyone had that much on there?) so maybe a multi millionaire? Either way, nice 3.5x/$50k hit for a single report.

"Fully prepared to look like a moron on this one - just bought ~$20k of Netflix $nflx puts.

Under no circumstances follow me on this trade. This trade was made entirely on anecdotal evidence of lower nflx usage amongst my friends lololololol yolo https://t.co/y5tTHKQMVH

https://twitter.com/realDennisCao/st...648267776?s=19

on a cash flow basis they were massively negative. I dont trust their content amortization accounting. They already changed it once years ago. I wouldnt be surprised if they had to do it again when they find out stranger things doesnt have a 10 year tail.

Yeah, the numbers are pure accounting BS. Cash flow often tells the real story, especially once they've reached this scale.

Netflix $200 Jan 2020 puts are as cheap now at $380 as they were at $420 a few days ago. Still biding my time waiting for the right entry point - it's a bet on Disney which is a way off.

Although the NFLX CEO did call everyone who disagrees with me on increasing competition idiots when they strongly warned about it yesterday, vs the crazy people ITT who said it's "nothing".

Yeah it matters so much which is why the stock is 10% off the lows after already being up 90% YTD.

Is AMZN still a short TS? Just curious when we should quadruple down on that call lmao.

My only point is that it's certainly not "nothing" as the loons in this thread claimed. Management laid out in detail a lot of specific threats including Disney/Fox and interestingly strong country specific threats from networks like in France and Germany.

The rosy eyed bulls above are not seeing this coming and actually think it is "nothing", but it's most of the bear case. Netflix is switching from near monopoly (for what they offer) to compelling competition rather rapidly.

It is typical of tards to look at price action and think it means something, but it doesn't when you're taking long term or catalyst bets. The warning about competition has nothing to do with recent price action, up or down. The adults are talking about future fundamentals, and you want to play with your chart lego and focus on the short term while making zero predictions. OK, but realize that you're just being useless noise.
Why are you asking me this in the Netflix thread? Other irrelevant things that I called at the same time that you could ask me:

"Is Bitcoin still a short TS? You called that at $17,500"
"Is Tesla stilla short TS? You called that at $350"

I get that you have a raging boner for me, having had your pride wounded and unable to let it go, but a) I'm not gay, sorry and b) you tard up a lot of threads with your zero content idiocy and hatred of me.

NFLX is vastly overbought, but hey its an algo driven world. Fundamentals that matter now are volume and price.

I don't think it's algos driving the price. I think it's funds chasing highest yield/out performers/guaranteed revenue growth, and the retail fish piling in behind them. Look at Tesla in the past. Look at Valeant as it went to highs without fundamentals before crashing. It's a large cap revenue growth screamer and every fund wants to pile in for the returns.

That's part of the reason why it'll come undone when the growth story runs into a brick wall and turns negative when Disney launches. Negative growth numbers collapse multiples faster than anything.

It's basically growth candy. Huge growth results are expected, everyone piles in expecting them, they get hit, more people pile in. It's why I'm not in a hurry to enter. The thesis is the growth candy being taken away, but unless this month is a harbinger of further failures, hard numbers caused by new competition are what will ultimately tank it (or a down market, which is why it's ok to take it now).

#neverforget

-84.4%.
-89.5%.
+11%.

=-54.3%
+60%.

So you selectively quote my few worst picks and not my 10+ good ones? Why would you do this? And why would you tard up the Netflix thread with it? Like I literally posted real time, in and out 140% profit in this very thread - not quoted by you. 84% paper loss on a long term bet that hasn't closed yet and the thesis not yet played out? Quoted. Why?

You have legit issues bro. I've known crazy spurned ex girlfriends saner than you. And less obsessed with me.

People have even told you you come across like a creepy loser with all this, but you keep doing it.

If you want to make some picks or argue fundamentals then by all means do. I love to discuss actual ideas that help me make money. I love it when people attack my ideas, like some have above. Right or wrong, it's valuable. But you're not here for making money or getting a better view on Netflix - you're just here because you're butthurt and can't deal with it. It's sad.

Just using your own words, and again you admitted you lucked out because the market tanked. I'll go back and quote the part where you make a comment about Netflix technical strength despite the fact you say they are bull**** lol. It's so easy when its just a quote away .

The truth is you have zero proof you actually make ANY of these trades IRL. It would be so easy to make me look like an idiot and post a screenshot, but it doesn't exist.

Go talk to a mod or use the ignore feature if you don't like it, just using your own content.

You have a serious problem simply admitting you are wrong and your fundamental viewpoints on some of the tech names have been atrocious. If you want to bump my terrible viewpoints of the past, fine. I encourage criticism, it makes me a better trader which is why I know you are a total fraud.

You have a serious problem admitting you're a mentally ill stalker with an obsession.
Why would I bump your terrible viewpoints? Like literally, what is the point? No one cares and neither do I. I'm here to discuss ideas.

I pretty much live for criticism of my ideas on this forum. That's why I throw them out there including predictions and am combative. For example, in this thread, I've learned a lot by discussing with the (insane) bulls and honing my views of Netflix. I've also learned how insane and delusional the bulls are - "competition will make no difference", Netflix grows subscribers at 50%/year?? That's valuable info because there are 100K more people like the ones who had that view. It feeds into the stock view and its buoyancy. I'd be all in if I believed, as apparently many erroneously bulls do, that they're growing 50%/year.

What do you achieve by quintuple rage posting over and over about my bad picks? The only reason anyone does that is because they're emotionally wounded and can't deal with it without lashing out. That you lack that basic self awareness is equal parts incredible and funny.

It's fun for me, that's about it. You make it so easy.

tooth getting megacucked as im pretty sure they say

its not like he's alone tho, lots of people are drowning in their short tech stance. just look at poor einhorn.

my gut says the tech shorts will eventually be right, but everyone was too early as it often goes. but i dont trade stocks, so no hot takes from me today.

Einhorn actually has money on the line, TS is a BFI posting pro. That's the difference. You can use whataboutism as much as you want but when you tell someone to sell as he has multiple times earlier in this thread when NFLX was a lot lower, you should know he has ZERO skin in his calls. They are worth what this conversation is aka not much.

Fine I'm obsessive and have no life TS, what's your excuse?

No, dude. You made money today (probably long Netflix calls? congrats if so) and like a typical tiltmonkey/addictive gambler are feeling emotionally better as a result. So feeling stronger you return to attack someone who's made you feel bad in the past, in order to continue the good feeling. That's why it's "fun". I know your type inside out. BPD manifests in the same way and involves lack of control and swings like this.

All I ask is that you don't let your mental problems crap all over this forum as they've been doing so far. You did five posts in a row out of the blue crapping all over this thread with irrelevant content for "fun".

You want to do a survivor polling BFI users? Loser leaves? Or are you a coward?
I've said over and over I only trade options, not stocks, and I don't have skin in my short (or long) stock calls. My posted options trades are the ones I have skin in.

Nah because unlike you I could rally careless what people on 2+2 think and it's hilarious how much this place means to you. Just shows how little of a life you have outside of this place.

gents, knock it off.

If people like ASAP17 are allowed to follow me everywhere for months initiating completely off topic trash like this just to pick a fight because it's "fun":
then there's not much point to me posting here. GL. I'll be back to post trades to win the wager I have with Brian and collect (or pay) the 2020 NFLX bet ahnuld, taking a break otherwise.