Posted the above almost a year ago today. Still stands true.

Everyone I know complains about Netflix. Literally everyone. Most people I know use Hulu as their media streaming anchor. There must be massive swaths of people 100% outside of my bubble that still love the **** out of Netflix because I don't think its going anywhere anytime soon, but the quality of the product has been steadily declining for years while the price goes up and up.

Just by optics the stock is severely overpriced, but reality seems to have no basis in reality anymore on stocks like this.

I think you've nailed the problem in your post coordi, people complain but what do they actually do about it? When has the stock not been overpriced?

Marvel and Star Wars watchers are pretty much the exact same demographic as most Netflix users.

There is certainly room for multiple streaming services to survive and even thrive. It will be interesting to see what Disney does with Hulu now that they will have a majority interest in it. Disney could create a discount bundle with Disney+ and Hulu, or even bundle Disney+ with Hulu and ESPN+. Such bundles could definitely hurt Netflix.


You're absolutely correct that creating new content is extremely important. Disney will be creating Marvel and Star Wars shows specifically for their new platform. A good Star Wars program by itself could make Disney+ a must-subscribe for a ton of people. That's what I don't like about netflix. Rather than building strong brands that people really have to watch they just try throwing a lot of **** content at a wall and hope something sticks.

The question is not when it has not been overpriced but when will it cease being overpriced and why.

I don't think it was overpriced before 2017 really. Seems like people put a lot of faith in Netflix being able to sustainably produce profitable high quality content and that's when the stock took off. It's a reasonable bull case, but I don't see it coming to fruition based on the content they've put out up to this point.

I don't agree with this, and like many have mentioned if that's your thesis then you have a great short opportunity coming up when they yank their catalog. I also don't agree with you, Coordi, case, and TS that their content hasn't built brands/things people want to watch... if anything their aggression in creating original content should be commended.

You can't have it both ways, you can't criticize them for spending a bunch of money on friends while also spending money on their own original content. Doesn't make sense especially when that's going to be the standard business model across the industry in the future.

On a traditional valuation basis it wasn't overpriced before 2017/compared to the valuation now? Any data to support this because it was trading 300 times earnings around when Trump was elected lol.

I'm probably out of touch with the demographics of netflix. What I do know is that I'm definitely not that demographic (40+ yr old male)

Spending money on content is good. I have no problem with that. I do think there is a perception though that much of the content is absolute **** and that's bad for the brand. Netflix is more about quantity over quality. I'd rather they spend more money on a few high quality shows. This is what HBO has been really good at. They produce super high quality shows that become buzzworthy and everyone has to watch them. Netflix had this to a point with House of Cards and now with Black Mirror but given the amount of money Netflix has to spend you would think they could produce a lot more high quality shows than they do.

On a side note since everyone loves anecdotes I received responses from my renters regarding cancelling Netflix. I received 2 "thanks for the heads up" 1 "I don't watch that anymore" and 1 "I don't care about netflix been meaning to ask you if we can get Starz"

Thoughts on this take?

https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/...ings-beat.aspx

HBO has a great catalog but it's also $15/m for HBO Now and they still pay (like everyone else) for licenses to other studio's movies. Everyone is spending on content, whether that's their own or for someone else's.

Also every studio has a bunch of failures whether it be movies or TV shows, what Disney's film studio has been able to accomplish over the last 5-10 years is an anomaly. Good luck having the expectations that they can replicate it going forward, like I said above there is a lot of executional risk despite it being viewed as a pretty safe bet to be successful. Disney stock certainly believes that as well...

Probably accurate

I canceled my Netflix account today. When i read the monthly fee was going up, it made me realize that i rarely use it anyway. Amazon Prime Video and YouTube are enough for me.

I wish Prime Video would do something besides be completely useless. I guess that is what happens when it is an afterthought tack-on to their main service.

I didn't even know prime included Amazon Music until earlier last year.

So much for that take. LOL.

Netflix missed on revenue and subs.

The way I read it they only missed on the revenue - and a clear beat on subs. But it seems fishy that the revenue is a miss on such a sub beat. It's selling off a little bit after hours.

Definitely strange that they beat everything and came up short on revs. Saw a guy take 10k short on WSB and thought he would get burned, but looks like he will be fine. This is why I don't trade!

Huh. Somehow I misread the subs part. Strange because it got hammered in the after-hours and I was under the impression from the reading I've done that new subs are the bigger driver.

Down 4% AH still above Monday's levels when the implied move was 13% and the stock has run +50% in month is getting hammered? Come on Candy... When both side's short term options are likely to be vaporized tomorrow you know it's a minor/nothing reaction.

I'm not sure you misread the subs. Immediately upon the #s being released my phone sent me a fake news message saying that NFLX is falling due to losses in subscribers.

Actually, i think Prime Video is awesome and way better than Netflix or Hulu. I like how you can rent newer movies that don't show up on Netflix/Hulu or other monthly services. And the rent cost is reasonable.

I guess it's just personal preference.

Objectively, no, 4% is not being hammered given the context of the last few weeks. It just feels that way when you’re in a short term call

I was going on a report that got reposted on Twitter, so looks like I got ahold of some fake news as well. Premarket is currently at $346. I think the after-hours low was around $330. Maybe we get a little rebound. Probably not.

I have Prime, Netflix and cable. If it weren't for sports, cable would be gone. I like both Prime and Netflix. Netflix has way more content and is much easier to navigate and find what I want. Prime is smaller but does have some high quality but I really despise the interface. If they made their interface for search and browsing better I would watch it more often than I do. But streaming channels are not either/or. The market and appetite for them is huge and there is plenty of room for many players.

No, that makes seense. I'm just the person who sees 5.99 to rent and clicks on a different link on my bookmark bar and watches it for free

My biggest issue with prime is what bseball said, the interface is garbage. Navigating their meager collection is hell before you don't find anything to watch

I agree about the Prime interface. It's not great, that's fer sure.

Have you tried YouTube TV? I got rid of cable and can now watch live or recorded sports.

I agree that 5.99 is too much to rent, and i'll torrent that ****. But they have a lot of classics for 3.99 which i think is worth it.

Also, i use the voice search on my TV, so i almost never interact with the Prime search function (which sucks).

Roma was nominated for 10 Academy awards today. The first straight to streaming movie ever to be nominated. This is just the beginning.

I'm not sure how anyone can make a case that Hulu, Prime, or anyone else is producing more quality content than Netflix. Of course there's tons of crap, but it still seems like Netflix is the best.