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Originally Posted by mrbaseball
The trend is you friend.
Yeah we heard that story 100 points ago NFLX will turn over sometime as nothing just goes the way it has infinitely.
This is not the argument for why Netflix will turn over. NFLX will turn over because it is vastly overvalued compared to even its most optimistic end game.
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When the market eventually corrects it may correct more.
There's no "may" about it.
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But timing and trade management are the key because otherwise you just get buried.
You're like a parrot. I really don't know if you're daft or just stuck in the habits of long experience, but you *must* have the understanding necessary to realize that the largest edge that following a trend can give you is necessarily fairly small - or everyone could be mega rich just from following trends since it is a simple algorithmic observation rather than a judgement call. Channels, for example, must add a very very tiny amount of information at best, or everyone would be rich algorithmically trading channels. I put this question to you and you seem not to grasp it.
I mean, I'm sure your way of doing things worked fine for you trading commodities, and more power to you and I enjoy your insights on that, but you're really out of your depth here and seem not realize it.
No one is going broke shorting NFLX (that's not even what's being discussed, by the way, merely selling it now before you run into the freight train of a correction) unless they're in for a big lot of their stack and cover without letting the thesis run.
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I have never made a case for buying it, just think its ridiculous to try and pick tops in such a strong trend. Picking tops (or bottoms) is suckers game as we all know the market can usually stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent stubbornly fighting it.
If you're not making a case for buying, then you must find the EV of buying it to be low, right? In which case it doesn't matter whether you're long or short.
I mean, you don't really believe your own argument that it's a "strong trend", and that this means shorting is -EV, otherwise you'd buy.
You have a fear approach to trading rather than a rational one. Great traits for a man in the pits who printed money because he was a market maker and can capture the good side of the spread and thus merely has to stay solvent. Awful traits for either stock analysis or stock trading.
All your commentary seems to be "Waaaaahhh!!! I could lose money!!! Losing money bad!!! Don't go against the trend!!!" with no analysis or depth behind it.
People have that approach to poker too, they're called rocks and they grind out ok money sometimes. An EV approach to trading (and poker) is superior but it seems to be something that you're too fearful or habitual to contemplate.
Last edited by ToothSayer; 01-25-2018 at 12:14 PM.