I can't explain the AMEX index v wellhead prices thing. I don't deal much with the commodities side. But when it comes to the stocks of producers rising, some of this has to do with companies moving into liquids rich shale plays, where the margins are much better.

Natural gas prices are expected to remain depressed at least over the next couple of years. The result is companies producing more NGLs and oil, and bringing in partners to develop acreage. Lots of international companies have teamed with domestic producers, and at very good prices per acre. This means companies like Chesapeake are getting strong value for their acreage, while international companies are essentially paying to learn how to develop shale plays in their own areas. Some of these international companies doing JVs in the U.S. are also more liquid, and can simply afford to take a longer view.

Longer term, commodities prices will rebound as demand for power gen ultimately increases. There's also trendy talk of the U.S. beginning to export gas via LNG to other countries, but that's years and a long debate away. Consumer advocacy groups will fight this every step of the way. The idea of exporting domestically produced gas is attractive to producers, but it's easy to see why this turns into a political debate pretty quickly.

It's a pretty fascinating time to be watching natural gas markets. Shale gas turned markets upside down, essentially blowing holes in a lot of the conventional supply wisdom.