Lazy as I am, I couldn't justify not spending 15 minutes listening to a presentation concerning fifty two thousand bucks of mine. (It was 40K but the stock has been nice enough to move from 2.00 to 2.60 since I mentioned I bought it.) A replay can be heard on their website.

Much of what was talked about has been discussed here. To my layman's ear they seemed to give good reasons to have hope that they will be able to get past the negatives brought up by Pair The Board and others. There was also a negative, not brought up here, or in their presentation, but mentioned elsewhere (yea I actually do just a tiny bit of reading about stuff) that concerned me greatly. Which was that people don't mind needles as much as might have been expected, at least not the modern day ones. But to make up for that they mentioned some positives about their product we hadn't discussed. The most significant by far, in my opinion, is that with their product, unlike others, you DON'T GAIN WEIGHT.

In any case I thought it would be a good exercise to have as many people as possible from this forum listen to the presentation and discuss and debate whether or not it seems legit or hype. Totally putting aside the fact that I own shares or had originally broached the subject. That would only bias things. It is not even this particular stock that I'd like to see discussed but rather the points made in webcast presentations of this sort. I think it would be interesting to see how many of you are persuaded by their arguments, and to what degree, and why.

Personally I was not qualified to assess their points except for maybe the no weight gain. And I was slightly turned off by their pointing that Mann was in a similar position with his previous company (Mini Med), where competitors had deaths and he carried on to move the stock from 1.90 to 200! I considered that a disengenuous argument. On the other hand I must admit it excited me a little bit. After all a similar move with MNKD means four million bucks for me even if I don't buy more. With that kind of money I can start hanging out with a better class of people. You will probably find me on the golf forum all day.

I own 1000sh @ 2.195 so I'm rooting for you!

This irritates me for some reason. Hope that's sarcasm!

If I get a few minutes I may listen out of curiosity. The point about needles is interesting, but regardless of how much less their hatred for them is now, I think it would take quite a few drawbacks for someone to choose a product with a needle over one without. Especially when I think about my friend's neighbor whose 3 year old(ish) was just diagnosed with diabetes and her parents cried the first time they had to poke her with the needle.

Why aren't you on the golf forum already? What is it that $4 million would allow you to do that you can't do currently? I'm going to laugh when you're disappointed about it going to 30 instead of 200 (the .1% of the time that it happens).

GOOD LUCK ......stock up 7 cents on the open.

2.67

If you include the next sentence after portion you quoted above it actually becomes quite funny.

.

I appreciate David showing his sense of humor.


Now to address two of his points:

Doing just a brief bit of research it doesn't appear that weight gain after beginning insulin usage has been thoroughly studied at all. I found a brief analysis online conducted in 2000 that could not find a conclusive relationship. This doesn't mean that good marketing promoting this "benefit" will not work well, after all millions of dollars every year (perhaps billions) are spent on weight loss programs that aren't all that successful and have little to no scientific basis. Diabetes patients tending to be overweight in the first place may place considerable weight (sic) on this possibility of less weight gain, whether real or imagined.

Now for the low fear of needles I thought this was pretty common knowledge but I might be mistaken. I applaud David for presenting some research into some pertinent information that may be useful when evaluating the price af ny stock and his pick in particular.

It is worth noting that anytime a conference occurs certain presentations often either lift stocks or lower them on a very short term basis. The recent rise in the price of MNKD may or may not be due to this common effect.

Jimbo

What MiniMed provided for the world was a lot more beneficial to society then what Mannkind and others are trying to provide, in my opinion.


It says a lot though that Pfizer completely dumped Nextar and its inhaled insulin product.

"It is worth noting that anytime a conference occurs certain presentations often either lift stocks or lower them on a very short term basis. The recent rise in the price of MNKD may or may not be due to this common effect. "

Jimbo

Thus I sold my stock today. I don't hold stocks I won't buy. Got my WSOP buy in out of it. Looking for an excuse to get back in though.

Either you had implied odds at 2.3 and no longer at 2.6 or you just made a
-EV decision (according to you) and are now bragging about it.

2.0 not 2.6. And I was already on record as guesstimating that the bad news deservedly justified perhaps a drop to 2.75.

But that is neither here nor there at this point. The well presented webcast meant that plenty of people heard and digested MNKD's optimistic spin and the stock is much more likely to be properly priced. If the stock had gone to 2.60 without the webcast I wouldn't have sold.

Maybe it is poker that gives me a different outlook on these things than some of you guys. Poker players are willing to risk significant money on things that they know they will often change their mind about five seconds later.

So now you are conceding the pot odds argument?

And traders may dump stock in the span of a few seconds, hours, or days.
I dont see how you are differentiating "us" from "you."

And just so I'm reading this right 1) You can time the market, 2) The market is inefficient though positive corporate presentations (and 95% are positive) increase efficiency.

One thing i havn't seen in these discussions is any reference to the 60 mins report on the effects gastric bypass surgery has on diabetes. The surgery has eliminated diabetes in many people and rats as well. I think it is a little to dangours currently as 1:1,000 people still die from the surgery.

I am sure cbs has a link somewhere on there site to the story.

Anyways nice win and good luck trading.

I am not conceding the pot odds argument. But I don't want to elaborate because no one seems to care. I was differentiating myself from investors, not traders. If I like a stock for one specific reason and a corporate presentation mentions that reason, I am apt not to like it anymore.

In fact it might be intersting for someone to to research the angle of shorting stocks the day after any such presentation.

The stock was never worth 20 David. The potential market is not in the billions as they would like you to believe but rather in the tens of millions. Huge difference and one of the main reasons Pfizer is done with their partnership with Nektar. This stock will never be worth it once was. Also I have to laugh at the billionaire argument in the previous thread.