The Markets Will Recrash on Monday. - Page 5 - Business, Finances and Investing Forum

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The Markets Will Recrash on Monday.

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10-13-2008 , 03:44 PM

#101

Uglyowl

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This will go down as one of the posts most off the mark ever.

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10-13-2008 , 03:55 PM

#102

Borodog

Enemy of the State

Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 25,491

Hard to argue with at this point.

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10-13-2008 , 04:03 PM

#103

ahnuld

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there was no reason to say borodog was wrong. My bet was governemtns would intervene as they did and we would get a huge rally. But if they didnt borodog would have been correct and we could have been down a 1000 pts.

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10-13-2008 , 04:06 PM

#104

Borodog

Enemy of the State

Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 25,491

Thanks.

At this point it is pretty damn funny, though.

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10-13-2008 , 04:07 PM

#105

goosty

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,950

Quote:

Originally Posted by Uglyowl

This will go down as one of the posts most off the mark ever.

what the **** you talking about?! its 50-50, either up or down, jackass.

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10-13-2008 , 04:11 PM

#106

mother_brain

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Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 2,695

Am I the only one that thinks the true problem is being masked here as crude oil starts to shoot back up today? I'd much rather see the Dow at 7000 and oil at 50 than the Dow at 12000 and oil at 150. Speaking as a member of the economy rather than an investor.

Its going to be a good thing that lines of credit get opened back up because the cost of doing business is too high to make a profit and all your consumers are too broke to purchase your products.

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10-13-2008 , 04:14 PM

#107

Borodog

Enemy of the State

Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 25,491

Quote:

Its going to be a good thing that lines of credit get opened back up because the cost of doing business is too high to make a profit and all your consumers are too broke to purchase your products.

But at least that won't have an adverse effect on equities markets.

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10-13-2008 , 04:16 PM

#108

BouncinRound

adept

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,055

lol, biggest 1day gain since 1932.

OP SHANKS IT! HE SHANKED IT BOB! ITS NO GOOD! LONGS WIN LONGS WIN!

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10-13-2008 , 04:22 PM

#109

Borodog

Enemy of the State

Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 25,491

I was only off by 2500 points.

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10-13-2008 , 04:43 PM

#110

Uglyowl

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ahnuld

there was no reason to say borodog was wrong. My bet was governemtns would intervene as they did and we would get a huge rally.

The government has intervened before and failed massively (short sale ban, $700 billion bail out, rate cut), did they finally get it right or did we just get so oversold this was bound to happen? Government intervention doesn't guarantee a rally anymore, are they on the right track?

Borodog, it was one statement you made, everyone misses sometimes, I enjoy reading your posts, you obviously are right more often than wrong

I just hope you get a good chuckle like me that this was the biggest rally in a long long time

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10-13-2008 , 04:58 PM

#111

TimTimSalabim

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Smells like a massive short-covering rally to me. Should be interesting to see what happens the rest of the week.

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10-13-2008 , 05:21 PM

#112

The Don

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Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 3,362

Boro does understand long-term economic trends extremely well. It's pretty clear he doesn't play the markets on a day-to-day basis or else he never would have made this post. Predicting ultra short term volatility in these markets is very, very difficult given that it is the most volatile atmosphere in human history. Everyone and their mother thought the markets would shoot up once the second bailout bill passed and look what happened. A solid fundamental outlook can help you select the proper long positions though and that's the important thing (given that most of the good short positions are banned heh).

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10-13-2008 , 05:23 PM

#113

goosty

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,950

Quote:

Originally Posted by TimTimSalabim

Smells like a massive short-covering rally to me. Should be interesting to see what happens the rest of the week.

This. Tomorrow is going to be an extremly interesting day.

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10-13-2008 , 05:37 PM

#114

econophile

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boro's crystal ball must have been turned sideways:

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10-13-2008 , 05:38 PM

#115

Borodog

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Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 25,491

I was holding it upside down.

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10-13-2008 , 05:39 PM

#116

Borodog

Enemy of the State

Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 25,491

No wait. Still goes up that way.

Damn.

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10-13-2008 , 05:53 PM

#117

DesertCat

I am a Regulator

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 13,742

Quote:

Originally Posted by Uglyowl

This will go down as one of the posts most off the mark ever.

It just shows how difficult macro predictions are, even over very short periods.

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10-13-2008 , 05:53 PM

#118

owsley

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Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 3,277

This is what happens when the world's central banks get together over the weekend and decide to intervene to prop up the market. None of what happened today was real.

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10-13-2008 , 06:01 PM

#119

Uglyowl

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Quote:

Originally Posted by owsley

This is what happens when the world's central banks get together over the weekend and decide to intervene to prop up the market. None of what happened today was real.

Are you in the camp that government equity stakes in banks won't work? I think it is much more productive than the bailout.

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10-13-2008 , 06:08 PM

#120

Double Eagle

Health Care Thread Czar

Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 8,323

I think everyone's missing how much stress there was last week over the potential impact of the Lehman CDS settlements, which now appear to have been very overstated.

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The final auction for Lehman credit default swaps (CDS) was due to settle in the New York afternoon. The final prices were likely to be lower than the initial ones because there were a lot more sellers of bonds to settle the auctions than buyers, according to traders.

There have been widespread concerns that the prospect of these payouts - the gross value of which is roughly $360bn - is contributing to banks' hoarding of cash. As well as Lehman's default, the steady collapse of banks will require pay-outs on other credit derivatives, such as Washington Mutual and three Icelandic banks.

Eraj Shirvani, chairman of International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA), the industry body that manages the auctions, said these concerns were misplaced. "Sellers of protection mark their positions to market every single day. So those firms have already marked down and provided collateral against their positions. As a result, there should be little or no unanticipated additional cost involved in the settlement of Lehman CDS," said Mr Shirvani, who is co-head of European credit at Credit Suisse.Net exposures were usually around two per cent of the gross amount, which vastly reduced the potential cashflows. Assuming $360bn of gross exposure, this would translate into $7.2bn if these estimates are correct.

"Despite immoderate claims relating to the magnitude of the Lehman settlement, these are insignificant when put into the context of $5 trillion in payments on foreign exchange transactions that occur each and every day," he said.

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The payment calculations so far performed by the DTCC Trade Information Warehouse relating to the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy indicate that the net funds transfers from net sellers of protection to net buyers of protection are expected to be in the $6 billion range (in U.S. dollar equivalents).

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10-13-2008 , 06:09 PM

#121

suzzer99

Save the Cheerleader, Save the World

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 100,711

Quote:

Originally Posted by TimTimSalabim

Smells like a massive short-covering rally to me. Should be interesting to see what happens the rest of the week.

Nah, I'm sure it will be low volume doldrums.

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10-13-2008 , 06:16 PM

#122

five4suited

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Borodog

I agree completely with that analysis. I mean, everytime the President hits the Rose Garden to announce, "Stay calm! All is well!" the markets tank. What do they think is going to happen when the Masters of the Universe come out and say, "Ok, time to panic"?

Their whole job is to blow smoke regardless of how ****ty the situation is.

It's almost as if the inducement of panic is intentional.

it is. the bush family (and to a lesser extent, american military-industrial interests, i.e., halliburton) want to maximize their returns when they move their capital into the equity markets. the more depressed prices are, the more shares they can buy.

i know it sounds like a conspiracy theory and all, but looking at the 8 years of the bush presidency as a power grab (the imperial presidency, etc, ad nauseum) is the only filter through which one sees any semblance of consistency throughout.

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10-13-2008 , 06:30 PM

#123

ahnuld

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Uglyowl

I just hope you get a good chuckle like me that this was the biggest rally in a long long time

yes but this time the fix is much much more substantial than anything previously discussed before thrusday/friday and pretty much takes most of the 3rd party risk out of the banking system so credit can flow again. Still might have writedowns and low earnings, but for the most part the government is guaranteeing everything so as long as people still have faith in the EU/US gov credit should flow again. If people lose faith in that, well then we all ****ed

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10-13-2008 , 06:31 PM

#124

ThaSaltCracka

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heh, curious to see how things go tomorrow. People either jump out now with a bit of some of their money back, or they stay pat and ride this out. Tomorrow is massive IMO.