Been following this Russell 2k March support trendline recently. Picked the bottom yesterday and twice today for some nice winners.

I don't know why people are insisting on fighting this tape. The market has a strong bid and there's no reason to think we're going to see anything but a continued move up (might be a grind up) Trade what you see not what you expect. Tons of stocks are breaking out on the weekly charts, and we've had this move without retail investors participating. Everyday I hear people talking about how the market is overbought. That's BS, the best trades are the most uncomfortable ones. Look at the price action, look at spots to get long. I'm not saying don't plan when to sell/go short. Just wait for the confirmation. Don't blindly go in there because we're 'due for a correction'

Fed might crap on us tomorrow, or send us into rally mode. Hopefully the former

Little bit of FML, doing my chart review tonight.

FIVE had a nice bounce off of the 10day today. Had I had that on my price sheet, I probably would of caught if almost 3%. Anybody have any decent charts that can be viewed on an Iphone?

OCN nice day today. We'll see how things play out, but with me missing todays move, fed tom, end of Jan, and Jobs report on Fri, it'll be tougher to find a good market spot for a new entry.

I remain:
25% long OCN 75% Cash.

Nutz. You are right. Some of us are trying to short in a market that is trending up. I already gave up my January gains. It is best to wait for confirmation before going short . I am heavily short right now , it was a mistake , like it usually is. To catch a top

FOMC and jobs report is nice but it's month end. So the real question IMO is do the bulls take profits to lock in the month. One would think yes but since CNBC has been flashing that 200-210 points until the DOW's high from 2007 one almost has to think we must hit it or come very close to it before any profit taking takes place. We'll see.

IFLM from .01 to .033 so far, and its going well over .50 imo. Perhaps over $1. This company is going to be a true force and a LEGIT company in the independent film industry in Hollywood. What you are about to see with this will shock and awe.

Well written and I agree with just about everything you said. You obviously have an innate knowledge on how to trade, and that is worth 10 X the amount of schooling someone could buy. Well done.

The bottom line right now is stocks are overbought, but there really is no where else to put money right now. Yes its a rigged casino and yes the valuations are sky high, but for now, why fight it?

Soon, however, very soon, the price is going to be paid for this. 2008 x 100.

2008000?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZcZ6eJoxeE

CZR has a nice little pullback yesterday. Not entirely sure why the stock had run up 8, guess people need to park cash anywhere so they piled into that debt ridden beast.

2008100

The indices are just continuing to move higher, eurodollar giving a boost too. I wouldn't be looking for a top just yet.

I didn't imply a top. All I said is the bulls might decide to lock in profit to end the month basically implying if anybody is itching to short they might want to wait until the DOW attempts to go up for 2007 high which is 200 points from here and then attempt to short it for a trade having the month end profit taking most likely on their side as well. For all I know it doesn't happen. And even if it does... Does that mean we don't continue grinding higher two days later or have a real pullback? I have no idea.

Eurodollar is giving it a boost but the aussie and kiwi are not participating. Usually when the market is risk on, like we have been, the aussie and kiwi are the front runners. Currently they are struggling. Also the pound should be moving along with the euro instead it is getting absolutely destroyed. On the other hand the yen is helping out the rally big time. So IMO one can't really read too much into the currencies at the moment.

Woke up to the GDP numbers and sold OCN at $37.89 for a 2.79% gain.

Probably done for January. Finished month up 1.35%. I know that kind of sucks, but I didn't make too many trades and never had even half my roll in at any time. Took very little risk.

Reading about the GDP numbers it sounds like no one cares, but I'd rather get shaken out than trapped. I let all the data come out this week and My next play accordingly.

made a play moeny account to learn / practice trading options, i also may take a stab at some forex. forex is something i know nothing about but i read you can trade at anytime 24 hours a day. since i dont sleep much and getting tired of grinding the pokers, this may be something i will be interested down the line.

returns for jan were whatever S&P and FTSE emerging markets was. overall up 8% in each as of nov 30th 2012.

thinking of looking into the US banks, going to look at them fundamentaly though. particularly BAC.

I think it will be like the year 2008, but 100 times worse.

KORS setting up now, FIVE now has a breakout entry, OCN look better than both.

Probably will miss all 3 if I sit out rest of week and we rally.

I'm going to wait until this rally is said and done, before I adjust my trading plan. One my biggest rules is to always protect profits. The downside of this is I've been missing some huge moves.

I've worked pretty hard to become profitable and I'm reluctant to make changes to a system that is working, but I think it must be done eventually. Once the rally is done I'm going to review all my trades and try and identify spots where I can be more aggressive with at least the first 25% of capital I put to work.

Also the market has scared me more than my stocks. I've missed huge wins in THC, CELG, and KORS due to market concern. I think I need to better define what combination of variables will shake me out of the market. Going to wait for a correction to do this analysis though.

for now 100% cash.

Not being critical, just what I see, so I could be wrong. It seems like to me you concentrate a large amount of your analysis and chart reading to individual names. Maybe, you could establish some kind of basic trend following "system" with the S&P, the S&P must be making higher highs and lower lows to enter stocks long, or possibly use some kind of sentiment indicator. Not really great ideas but you gotta plenty of time to think of a better one. Seems to me like you let this slow grind higher scare you out of potentially profitable trades. Maybe, if you are bearish neutral on the overall market you cut your size in half.

Remember trading is similar to poker in that sometimes it's better to let go of trades or hands that are losers in hindsight. I.E. those times you would have flopped gin with 56o from mp. It sucks to think about all the money you could have won, but, in the end you made the right and profitable play. I think you have done great so far and it's good to hear you are profitable. GL seems like you are on the right track.

Overall, def not short yet but I am increasingly getting more bearish this market. LOTS of bulls out there.

I also think the break in the correlation of the Precious metals, stock indices, and several of the forex markets is quite interesting. Seems to me like something is afoot. Either we are truly in the beginning of a new long term bull or this thing is going to puke for the next few years.

Seems like the new trend is a rally in stocks from Christmas to one week after April 15th. Makes sense the IRA and tax rally.

pftt . i think you are right , this is around the time i go into deep depression.. lol

Nice then I'll be able to retire in 2014

Thanks Zip,

I actually do about half my analysis based on the general market. I look at price movement on the indecies, volume patterns, Keep track of the McClellan Ocelator (I know I spelled that wrong), I do sector analysis, follow the price action of leading stock (as this is a great forward indicator of market direction), keep up with the macro news, and watch the TLT, VIX, EUR/USD, Oil, GLD when they correlate with market direction. The reason why alot of my long trade do well the first few days is I'm timing the individual chart pattern with days where the general market is showing a green light.

What I think I'm missing is a set of rules that shows what combination of these factors should have me consider selling. Today, for example I saw the GDP report Yesterday I noticed, a lot of leading stocks lagging the market, combined it with fed data this afternoon, end of month tomorrow, and jobs report coming tomorrow.

I woke up sitting in a 2.7% profit with OCN and didn't want to give it back so I sold. Most of my reasons are fear of upcoming risk. I'm probably paying too much attention to what can go wrong in the market and not enough attention to what is actually happening. I'm always selling on macro concerns.

I'm at the point where I can gain +1.5-5% trades very profitably, but I always get shaken out before I can catch the big 20% plus move. I'm going to have to find spots to take more risk to accomplish this, but I'm hesitant, because being more patient and calculated is the number one reason I've done well for 6 consecutive months now.

Thanks for the feedback, I'm definitely interested in more of your thoughts and others.