can you elaborate on this a little, i like tailing your plays

Definitely +1

As if biden created 30 trillions of debt by himself lol.

Jfc trump made as much debt in 4 years than Obama in 8 years lol…
Maximus need new pairs of eyes not glasses ….

If it wasn't Covid it would have been something else.

It's not always sunny outside.

The problem is nobody saved a cent during the good times, so when times went bad our only solution was to print money, debasing our currency.

You better go out and buy food, shampoo, gas for your car, now before there are shortages.

The gains you make stocking up on food and gas now will far outstrip any gains you make in the market.

We have had a 40 year bond bull market. This means higher bond prices, lower yields, consistently making lower lows and lower highs. We’ve recently broken trend due to inflation and put in a slightly higher high on yields.

The easiest data to predict moving forward is demographics, what % will comprise of 65% living off entitlements and doing very little spending vs % of people in prime working/spending age 35-55. The oldest demographics is Japan and they have failed to create inflation despite their growth in m2 money supply. All developed nations are aging and trending towards older demographics just like Japan.



Given our population is only getting older for the next 2-3 decades, this will create issues creating sustainable growth in our society. As a result, inflation will be low and growth will be too, creating more bond demand which raises price and lowers yields. This is the long term thesis for long duration bonds.

The more medium term thesis is we are likely to have a recession, inflation will revert back to mean, growth will fall off a cliff due to unemployment rising and as happens during almost all recessions, the fed will start lowering interest rates and likely start qe again. Reintroducing the largest bond buyer will create a huge bid driving up prices of treasuries/bonds across all durations. The long end typically benefits most during recessions, so I like tlt/edv here on a 6 month-3 year time frame, I’ll be dumping during the next qe cycle.

lack of growth does not mean low inflation

you dont know what you are talking about

Joe Biden did create 30 trillion in debt.

When he was vice president under Obama the debt was only 5 trillion.

By the time Biden leaves office the debt will be 35 trillion.

Fwiw in Canada, some provinces opened too quickly for covid and they had to cancel thousands of surgeries and they lost control of their health care system. Begging other provinces to come to their help …..

Always easy to blame after a crisis .

Feel free to track inflation vs demographics and get back to me.

Lol …..w.e dude .
Clearly we know where u come from .
Nvm u win ….

we dont need to track anything you just said low growth means low inflation that is fundamentally incorrect

must be some more biden math

Yeah, send this guy to the politics forum lol

venezuela gdp fell 5% last year inflation was 700% probably a lot higher than that actually

Here you go tooth:

sudan gdp decline 8% inflation 320% i can go on and on sell side guy

all you did is show a one sample size trend as your evidence what lol

ty socal

[QUOTE=SoCalQuest;57686332The long end typically benefits most during recessions, so I like tlt/edv here on a 6 month-3 year time frame, I’ll be dumping during the next qe cycle.[/QUOTE]

I thought you said you give the Fed more potential to raise rates further vis-a-vis debt obligations than others seem to, yet you're essentially calling a top on rates with your TLT position?

The one time you cant argue with monetary stimulus is when private capital suffers some kind of outlier shock.

Problems caused by bad monetary policy come from its misuse in times of no shock, or when private capital has bought the shock on itself and wants to socialise its losses.

I think they’ve most likely topped due to low growth and peak inflation. The peak fed funds rate was priced in sep 2023 at 3.4%. It’s now priced in between March and June 2023 at 2.9%. I expect this to continue trending sooner and lower as the fed’s expectation of growth rebounding does not manifest.

My argument about fed having more potential to raise rates was a theoretical one. I was simply pointing out that raising rates further wouldn’t bankrupt the country as many think. The poster had painted a picture of decade long sustained inflation, in that event, I don’t expect fast cuts and would expect further hikes.

It restricts options of the Treasury. Shortening duration was achieved during the Clinton admin for the purpose of saving amounts on this scale, perhaps even less. So I don't think you are going to win a lot of votes by comparing 200B a year to GDP and saying it "isn't really a big deal".

And you don't get the money back when rates go down. Also, many are forecasting 3% inflation for a few years out at least. So maybe figure 200B+ a year for the next few years.

Basically the U.S. is changing from a producer to a consumer, via aging population who no longer work and instead get entitlements. So expect GDP to decrease, federal budgets to continue to bloat, debt obligations on higher interest treasurys taking $ away from other federal programs, and lower relative tax revenues.

All the pressure to hold back wages to fight inflation is actually counter productive, because the Treasury would make a lot more $ with the additional tax revenues of earners getting kicked to higher tax brackets.

200b a year is a big deal when compared to a small deficit, compared to our a current deficit, it’s a drop in the bucket. We just sent Ukraine 40b recently and no one cared because the figure was so small. Here is our deficit over the last 20 years:



Basically, voters will not even register the difference of an additional 200b a year in interest payments at these levels. What they would register, however, is extremely elevated cpi print where the fed is keeping low rates and doing qe. Dems and Biden are polling extremely poorly, the #1 issue for those polled is inflation, which is why the fed is being so aggressive.

We have changed to a consumer decades ago, we have been running huge deficits for decades. I agree with your general sentiment, aging demographics and entitlements are leading us down the path of Japan, long term we will have a very tough time manufacturing inflation, this is the reason I like a position in long duration treasuries. What I disagree with though, is not fighting the elevated inflation now.

It is in our best interest to inflate the debt away over time, but this must be done slowly, elevated inflation is crippling for large segments of the population and leads to political unrest. Ideally, if we did have 3% inflation for 10-20 years, our debt to gdp would normalize and citizens wouldn’t notice the inflation as it was so gradual. At 5%+, people notice price changes and bond holders will realize they are getting devalued, sell their holdings and cause issues in the treasury markets,

in five months you will find out what voters think about biden inflation tax

Walmart, Gap and Others Amass $45 Billion in Extra Stuff to Sell

Big retailers rushed to build up inventories last year amid soaring consumer demand and transportation bottlenecks -- going so far in some cases as to rent their own cargo ships. Now, they’re trying to figure out how to sell all their stuff.

Inventories rose $44.8 billion for companies on S&P consumer indexes with a market value of at least $1 billion that reported earnings over the last two weeks, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s up 26% from this time last year. The glut dented profits at some retailers, with Walmart Inc. paying more for storage and Target Corp. and Gap Inc. cutting prices on key goods.

It’s far from clear what comes next....

“The just-in-time mentality is broken now,” said Jen Bartashus, a retail analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “So you’re seeing retailers carry more inventory than they traditionally carried.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-stuff-to-sell

Fwiw I think it’s already been 20 years ago it happened and keep worsening .

The fiscal policies in US is a disaster for many years .
The financial and debt market has just become too big to fit in the real economy.
All valuation are mess up and do not mathematically works anymore .
It’s a big deflation and restructuring debts or inflation .
Inflation should be the lesser of evil .