h.h. gregg - Business, Finances and Investing Forum

Two Plus Two Forums Other Topics Business, Finance, and Investing

h.h. gregg

Post Reply Subscribe

...

Page 1 of 8

1 2 3 4 5 6

Page 1 of 8

1 2 3 4 5 6

02-14-2014 , 11:02 AM

Jason Strasser (strassa2)

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2003 Posts: 5,541

Hey guys, been working on this for a while, would love to get feedback.

http://www.captionhgg.com

Quote

02-14-2014 , 11:43 AM

hobokes

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 6,344

thanks for sharing, cant wait to read it

Quote

02-14-2014 , 02:44 PM

cts

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 7,736

Won't load on an iPad for me

Quote

02-14-2014 , 02:56 PM

forchar

banned

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 1,121

Up 3% today. Nice job?

Quote

02-15-2014 , 12:59 AM

ChipsAhoya

2011 $10k Stud8 Champion

Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 6,890

looks good; Sears is terrible, but who knows what the real estate is worth. seems like a great way to short Sears' operations without worrying about the RE.

my first question was, if the market still thinks as them as an electronics store, what do consumers think of them as? are they / how will they make sure consumers know that they are the new electronics retailer ready for the decline of Sears?

Quote

02-15-2014 , 02:10 AM

chopstick

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 9,158

Fun read, thanks for sharing. Enjoyed the cake. Too many map slides.

Quote

02-15-2014 , 02:23 AM

forchar

banned

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 1,121

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChipsAhoya

how will they make sure consumers know that they are the new electronics retailer ready for the decline of Sears?

And how will Sears customers know they are supposed to give 100% of their business to hgg instead of all of the other competitors in this space? In other words, why are you so optimistic that the decline of Sears == the rise of hgg, when there are so many other similar stores people could shop at, even if you are correct about Sears.

Quote

02-15-2014 , 02:43 AM

Keloika

centurion

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 163

Serious question:
Why did you make this site?

Quote

02-15-2014 , 02:45 AM

chopstick

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 9,158

chips & forchar,

You two might want to actually try reading the document before asking questions that it already answers.

Quote

02-15-2014 , 03:12 AM

#10

LozColbert

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 3,646

Quote:

Originally Posted by Keloika

Serious question:
Why did you make this site?

so that a 2p2er could make it. don't you remember _that_ thread a year or so ago?

Quote

02-15-2014 , 04:13 AM

#11

Mandor_TFL

adept

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 728

You make a good case for Best Buy to rebrand themselves as an appliance store.

You also make it very clear Sears is dieing.

Could use some more information on how/why H.H. Gregg is undervalued at this time using stock prices. At this point I feel obligated to bring up there chart to look at it. ( after writing that I looked, and I feel you may very well be correct for a long term play, of course im an Amateur )

Quote

02-15-2014 , 05:00 AM

#12

bigdog6391

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 385

"Hey guys, been working on this for a while,"

Must've been difficult to be working on this for a while, as the stock has had a rough last 6months. Did your feelings on the company waver at all as the stock was going down so consistently?

I found your case to be convincing and pretty comprehensive, but I do agree that the maps are a bit much. I was very attentive while reading the whole thing but when I came to the maps I found myself skipping through them.

Quote

02-15-2014 , 06:52 AM

#13

demandi

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 122

Quote:

Originally Posted by Keloika

Serious question:
Why did you make this site?

I was thinking about this as well. Maybe I am missing something in your presentation, but is it to get people to invest in your company, or is it to provide information that you hope gets picked up by the crowd so that your investment strategy becomes more powerful?

Think the presentation looks good. Can't really say that much on your analysis as I am not familiar with the firm/industry, but it looks convincing. I agree with others on the map slides though.

Quote

02-15-2014 , 01:54 PM

#14

chisness

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 4,683

til hh gregg is a store

"Caption Partners (“Caption”), a beneficial owner of more than 1% of the common stock of h.h. gregg (NYSE:HGG)"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101417543

Mkt cap = $272m, nice!

What got you interested in this market at all?

Quote

02-15-2014 , 02:54 PM

#15

twalf

adept

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 739

great writeup! not to go too off topic, but i'd love to hear about your experiences with setting up a small hedge fund after i'm assuming you left your banking job.

Quote

02-16-2014 , 01:08 AM

#16

jws43yale

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 3,193

Same. I just quit my banking job after 6 years and have been debating setting up my own small fund or joining a big fund.

And I do like the write up. Want to do my own work but think it is well done. My only suggestion would be adding a one page highlight at the front as I know a bunch of PMs who want a "two minute elevator pitch" to entice them to dig in.

Quote

02-16-2014 , 02:13 AM

#17

Clayton

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 32,226

this is cool, it's reminding me of einhorn's presentations and anecdotes

thanks for sharing

Quote

02-16-2014 , 02:28 AM

#18

Clayton

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 32,226

would be interested in a more thorough breakdown with maps.

i'm also curious if there's a possibility that certain cities could behave differently on the marketshare. it wouldn't shock me if HHGregg had a well thought out reason as to why they aren't in Detroit.

Quote

02-16-2014 , 03:34 AM

#19

steelhouse

banned

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 6,109

I also don't like the comparison to Sears. I was hoping to get HHG at 6. But as a value investor especially one that is buying back its stock, no need to pump it. You will make more money not talking about it as the price drops, they buy back more shares. Sooner or later all the bad news is out and the stock rises again. I think HGG can earn $2 per share. That puts its p/e of about 5, not too bad imho.

Quote

02-16-2014 , 08:13 AM

#20

rubenrtv

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 1,780

Thanks for the write-up Jason. Like it a lot but still have some questions:

You have not discussed a customer profile of Sears. Assuming that all of Sears' competitors gain market share proportional to their current market share seems irrealistic. Which one of Sears' competitors best suits the current target audience of Sears (especially pricing wise)?

What about the market share that will go to online vendors when Sears closes (all) stores?

Moreover, it seems biased to only show the store locations of h.h. gregg in relation to Sears stores, but not show any of the other competitors for comparison.

Quote

02-16-2014 , 12:21 PM

#21

Jason Strasser (strassa2)

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2003 Posts: 5,541

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChipsAhoya

Certainly part of HGG's recent problems are image related. They've hired a new ad agency (Leo Burnett) and a new chief marketing officer and they would tell you they are shifting their advertising focus towards appliances.

Quote

02-16-2014 , 12:27 PM

#22

Jason Strasser (strassa2)

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2003 Posts: 5,541

Quote:

Originally Posted by forchar

Just using rough numbers: If you talk to HGG, they will tell you that Sears is approximately 30% of the appliance industry in their markets, HGG is around 10-13%. I have absolutely no idea how exactly that 30% will divide out, and that's impossible to guess, but HGG just capturing a small portion of that 30% will make a large difference to them. In our analysis we assume HGG maintains its market share amongst all non-Sears appliance stores (maybe aggressive?). We also assumed Sears has 24% market share to lose, but in reality it is probably closer to 30% in HGG's markets (conservative).

Quote

02-16-2014 , 12:37 PM

#23

Jason Strasser (strassa2)

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2003 Posts: 5,541

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mandor_TFL

Appliance market is roughly a $33B market in the U.S. BBY is doing around $50B of revenue a year and appliances are much less than 10%. So your scale is way off in terms of best buy becoming an appliance store.

Quote

02-16-2014 , 12:40 PM

#24

Jason Strasser (strassa2)

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2003 Posts: 5,541

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigdog6391

We don't disclose where we got long the stock. But based on our scenario analysis you can see some price targets and its safe to say we feel different about the stock now then we did when it was at $20.

We might've done overkill on the maps. We wanted to really get the point across that literally down the street from almost every HGG is a Sears.

Quote

02-16-2014 , 12:45 PM

#25

Jason Strasser (strassa2)

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2003 Posts: 5,541

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clayton

You are absolutely right. HGG has done a lot more work than us on this! We don't have the data/information to make a very informed recommendation on where to open up new stores. We picked a few markets near their existing stores/distribution centers that Sears had a large presence in. There wasn't much more to our locations than that. The real thing is that we believe they should be more aggressive opening up new stores near big Sears markets.

Quote

Page 1 of 8

First

1 2 3 4 5 6

Last

Post Reply Subscribe

...

Page 1 of 8

First

1 2 3 4 5 6

Last