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Give me your Bitcoin predictions Give me your Bitcoin predictions

01-24-2014 , 07:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jake (The Snake)
I definitely see the value of bitcoin for sellers/merchants, but I'm not sure I understand why bitcoin is so great for consumers.
Sending value across the world cheaply - especially across currencies.

Digital/programmable signatures, proof of ownership, escrow. I actually think that some of the currently peripheral parts of the bitcoin protocol are the most exciting. Think of it as 'programmable money' and lots of cool things become possible.
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01-25-2014 , 12:17 AM
To the people who think bitcoin is a bubble or have a negitive view on it for some other reason. Will you please link me to where you get your news or list a few people who you trust and respect for your bitcoin related news? I'm interested in reading opinions that differ from those that I currently read.
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01-25-2014 , 12:24 AM
^ just search 'bitcoin' on twitter. there's tons of article. lots of negative ones.
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01-25-2014 , 02:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rant
The government has a lot of control over the supply and demand for $USD. Part of their goal is to make it stable and they have a lot of tools to work with. For example, making $USD legal tender.

bitcoin's supply is algorithmic. It can't be manipulated but it also can't be artificially stabilized.
If Bitcoin was legal tender that everybody has known about for generations and everybody is in the habit of using, it would also be stable. The dollar isn't stable because its supply changes arbitrarily (it's stable despite that).

Naturally a new thing that 5 people knew about last year but with huge possibilities will be volatile. Even if it's true that arbitrarily changing the supply helps the dollar to be stable, it's totally wrong to assume this is the important difference at play.

Quote:
bitcoin demand is currently highly volatile and while I'm not convinced that stability is impossible I'm not convinced that it is possible either. Mostly I'm just at a loss in thinking of any possible mechanism for it to become acceptably stable so that it could function as a store of value.
How could it not? Like, maybe Bitcoin will suck and disappear (I don't think so, but just saying). But if it lasts that's because it has value. Why would its value be changing wildly one day to the next? Why wouldn't a market of people bidding and selling price it correctly?

Just look at gold for an example of something that's stable without a few people tinkering with the supply. Sure gold fluctuates a little, but I don't think you'd object to its usefullness as a store of value because of it. (And some of gold's fluctuation is because of imperfect information about its supply, which Bitcoin is immune to. And that people are moving in and out as a reaction to fiat policy. And gold isn't even widely used by common people in the way Bitcoin would if we're talking about Bitcoin replacing fiat.)
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01-25-2014 , 03:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ALawPoker
If Bitcoin was legal tender that everybody has known about for generations and everybody is in the habit of using, it would also be stable. The dollar isn't stable because its supply changes arbitrarily (it's stable despite that).

Naturally a new thing that 5 people knew about last year but with huge possibilities will be volatile. Even if it's true that arbitrarily changing the supply helps the dollar to be stable, it's totally wrong to assume this is the important difference at play.


How could it not? Like, maybe Bitcoin will suck and disappear (I don't think so, but just saying). But if it lasts that's because it has value. Why would its value be changing wildly one day to the next? Why wouldn't a market of people bidding and selling price it correctly?

Just look at gold for an example of something that's stable without a few people tinkering with the supply. Sure gold fluctuates a little, but I don't think you'd object to its usefullness as a store of value because of it. (And some of gold's fluctuation is because of imperfect information about its supply, which Bitcoin is immune to. And that people are moving in and out as a reaction to fiat policy. And gold isn't even widely used by common people in the way Bitcoin would if we're talking about Bitcoin replacing fiat.)
Bitcoin will never replace fiat (it is not even used as fiat) so can we please just stop that delusion right now?

Over 60% of all bitcoins that will ever exist, already exist today. Did 60% of USD exist by 1786 just so a few first adapters could be rich forever? Please note, as this is important, I'm not saying early adapter/investors of a new technology should not become rich, they should be rewarded, but this is not what it seems.

Bitcoins entire valuation is mainly based upon the most recent generation having zero understanding of basic economic principles leading to pure speculation and the feeling to being entitled to being rich without having to actually do anything.
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01-25-2014 , 03:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TomCollins
LOL @ building a copy of Bitcoin but making it centralized. That's like inventing a version of email that instead prints it out and sends it to a physical mailbox.
Bitcoins is the equivalent of everyone peddling bicycles 24/7 to generate electricity when we could just build a power plant instead.

Last edited by Shoe; 01-25-2014 at 03:44 AM.
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01-25-2014 , 02:32 PM
Bitcoin, or the protocol, has the potential to completely eradicate most of the fraud occurring today in every country.

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-r...graphic-2012-4

250 billion in goods
40 billion in identity fraud
9 billion in credit card fraud
1 billion in scams/fraud

This is just in the U.S.! There is probably a trillion dollars in fraud a year globally, probably more. Now who do you think is paying for all of that? The merchants? ALL of it is passed down, in one form or another, to the user. Plain and simple. Companies that stay open do not operate at a negative, no business would or could. If they are making money with all of this fraud going on, you and I are paying for it, not them. How could you think otherwise?

This system will be adopted. Bitcoin is the first and biggest and has the network effect. It can adapt any "new" features just as a fast as any alt-coin. The coin store value system has been used for 2500+ years now, the upgrade is here...Bitcoin.
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01-25-2014 , 03:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by farris
So if one of the major flaws with BTC is that it's wildly unstable, which is not a preferred characteristic of currency, how does any alt crypto deal with that issue?
it's not one of the major flaws with BTC. it's the characteristic of a currency in its infancy.
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01-25-2014 , 03:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jake (The Snake)
Why is your average consumer going to buy something with bitcoins rather than with a credit card? It seems to me like a credit card offers a huge advantage with protection. If your credit card gets stolen, you get your money back. If your bitcoins get stolen, you are SOL.

Similarly, if you buy something fraudulent or otherwise have problems with a seller, the credit card company can help you out. As far as I can tell, you get no protection with bitcoins.
It's fruitless to compare a technology which has been the hub of development for decades to one which is still partially in the womb.

Remember when credit cards began making their way into the hands of consumers? There was no consumer protection, no warranty on products purchased with the card, no 1% rewards, no identity theft protection, no credit monitoring service, none of that. But then technology happened, and soon those features became available. Bitcoin isn't any different -- with time, things become easier.

You will soon see updates to the Bitcoin protocol which make it both easier and safer to use. Keep your eyes out for something called BIP 70.

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Person to person transferring is a possible use, but there are already plenty of services that do this for no/little fees in developed countries (paypal/BOA).
This is true, but Bitcoin is not for the billion or so people who already have multiple ways to purchase iPhones and lattes. In Kenya if you want to send funds using the national P2P service M-Pesa there are big fees and a huge tax on the cell phones used to conduct transactions. Good luck accessing PayPal or BOA in Kenya.

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But from the consumer's point of view, those middle men provide important protective value.
Is this an example of the important protective value you're referring to?

Quote:
Who's in charge at bitcoin?
The user.
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01-25-2014 , 05:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shoe
Bitcoin will never replace fiat (it is not even used as fiat) so can we please just stop that delusion right now?
Lol.

OK, you know the future, congrats. But that's besides the point. His post suggests that Bitcoin volatility vs. dollar stability is because of fixed supply vs. flexible supply. My point is to compare them on an even footing, I'm saying that USD's tradition and wider use is a much bigger aspect of why it's stable than anything else. I'm not arguing for the likelihood of Bitcoin being commonly used.

Do you see how that works? Like, if someone posted "Michael Jordan wears Nike shoes. Joe wears Reebok shoes. MJ can dunk, and Joe can't.", I might reply "Well, if Joe were 6'6'' and athletic like MJ, he'd be able to dunk in Reebok shoes". I wouldn't be saying that Joe is gonna become 6'6''. The point is that this major variable exists and his post seems to overlook that.

I disagree with you that it's delusional to think Bitcoin will ever be commonly used, but it's just a troll tangent that isn't interesting or relevant to the other posts.

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Bitcoins entire valuation is mainly based upon the most recent generation having zero understanding of basic economic principles leading to pure speculation and the feeling to being entitled to being rich without having to actually do anything.
No, but what you're telling us is that your ignorance about what the benefits are is probably inspired by a butthurt that other people might make money.
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01-26-2014 , 07:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TomCollins
LOL @ building a copy of Bitcoin but making it centralized. That's like inventing a version of email that instead prints it out and sends it to a physical mailbox.
I lol'd
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01-27-2014 , 03:58 PM
Bitcoin exchange CEO arrested for money laundering.

http://money.cnn.com/2014/01/27/tech...html?hpt=hp_t2
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01-27-2014 , 04:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pot Odds RAC
Bitcoin exchange CEO arrested for money laundering.

http://money.cnn.com/2014/01/27/tech...html?hpt=hp_t2
looking for a sharp drop following these arrests, warnings from russia, hearings tomorrow in new york (could be positive news, but if negative will cause definite drop), and january 31 ban in china on btc transactions.

hoping it drops heavily.

will then invest a decent amount ideally looking for a $3,000 price point by end of 2014. optimistically hoping for $10k by end of 2015.
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01-27-2014 , 04:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by housenuts
looking for a sharp drop following these arrests, warnings from russia, hearings tomorrow in new york (could be positive news, but if negative will cause definite drop), and january 31 ban in china on btc transactions.

hoping it drops heavily.

will then invest a decent amount ideally looking for a $3,000 price point by end of 2014. optimistically hoping for $10k by end of 2015.
Weak hands selling. Shrem getting arrested will have same effect of Silk Road going down. A lot of panic selling, followed by recovery.

Lot of people who thought Bitcoin could be used to do whatever you wanted without angering the Feds are in for a rude awakening. You can only do that once you are Too Big To Fail.
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01-27-2014 , 04:21 PM
I agree, but I think enough weak people will sell, so the price will drop. Of all those factors I mentioned those arrests is the least of long-term concerns. The China thing should already be factored in to the current price. What will cause fluctuations is what happens over the next 2 days in NY. Not that they have any lasting decision-making ability, but it will shed some light on which direction the state is likely to go, and it will also likely have an impact on other states' mindsets.
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01-27-2014 , 04:52 PM
What do you guys think of Tyler Cowen's pessimistic take on BTC? http://marginalrevolution.com/margin...-in-price.html

Wondering how much BTC's first mover advantage is worth.
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01-27-2014 , 05:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Superfluous Man
What do you guys think of Tyler Cowen's pessimistic take on BTC? http://marginalrevolution.com/margin...-in-price.html

Wondering how much BTC's first mover advantage is worth.
Another economic bozo who has no clue what gives Bitcoin it's advantage.

First mover advantages in protocols are huge, unless there is a fundamental flaw or advancement in competition. Often times flawed protocols win out to superior protocols/standards simply because they were more widely accepted first. There already are thousands of these competitors now. No one uses them, except maybe a few at the top, and even those are doomed.
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01-27-2014 , 05:18 PM
I think there's probably some good short term investing in altcoins, but in the long run I don't see them faring well. Can probably make a nice little profit off them now while the hype is up.

I don't necessarily think bitcoin is the be all end all, but it is definitely the heavy favorite to be the dominant cryptocurrency a few years down the road. It's possible one of the current altcoins, or a new altcoin, will emerge victorious, but I think bitcoin has to be about a 20-1 favorite.
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01-27-2014 , 05:51 PM
I think this weeks meetings will go well and Bitcoin breaks 2k by the end of Feb.
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01-27-2014 , 06:21 PM
On what basis do you think that?
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01-28-2014 , 12:21 AM
I'm mostly just a gambler but I'm very optimistic long run and generally agree that the biggest risk is regulatory. I think if the meetings go poorly the price does go down but that the upside if things go well is much more significant.
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01-28-2014 , 12:22 AM
I grant that todays price movement could actually be inside knowledge of negative position by New York state. I'm mostly discounting this.
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01-28-2014 , 12:54 AM
I'm positive long term. Not sure what to think for the next few days. I'm hoping the meetings go poorly and the price sharply drops because then I'll be able to afford a lot more with my small roll.
If they go well, and the price increases, I won't be able to afford much and my long term upside will be smaller due to limited holdings.
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01-28-2014 , 01:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by housenuts
I'm positive long term. Not sure what to think for the next few days. I'm hoping the meetings go poorly and the price sharply drops because then I'll be able to afford a lot more with my small roll.
If they go well, and the price increases, I won't be able to afford much and my long term upside will be smaller due to limited holdings.

Sounds like a good approach. I will consider this as well.
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