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General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread

08-25-2010 , 02:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ItalianFX
I don't know if this goes here, but I'm looking for a quick answer. If it doesn't get answered then I will go somewhere else.

What is it called when you, after the fact, look back and try to find an explanation for what just happened? Sort of like an, "I should have known..." I'm thinking it's something along the lines of "confirmation bias" type of stuff. Is that what it is?

It's related to trading so I will give an example.

You don't see one of your setups that you normally take, but price runs really far and then you start looking back and questioning how price came back to a certain point and you should have known to go long or just some other random variable that you use to try to explain the movement of price, but when in real-time it wasn't really visible because you really had no idea what price was going to do next.

Or another example, you're looking for a place to enter, but you're really unsure of what to do. Price then starts spiking in the direction that you were thinking and then you start saying stuff like, "Yeah I should have shorted there..." but in reality you shouldn't have, you're just looking back in the past now that you saw what happened. It's not so much of seeing what setups work, it's more of like the "after-the-fact moment."

I know that is confusing, but I'm having a hard time trying to explain it without giving a specific example based on what someone I know does.
Results oreintated?
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08-25-2010 , 03:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dirty banana2007
Results oreintated?
I'm thinking this is something more scientific than that like "confirmation bias." Results oriented just doesn't sound right specific to what I am trying to explain.
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08-25-2010 , 07:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ItalianFX
I don't know if this goes here, but I'm looking for a quick answer. If it doesn't get answered then I will go somewhere else.

What is it called when you, after the fact, look back and try to find an explanation for what just happened? Sort of like an, "I should have known..." I'm thinking it's something along the lines of "confirmation bias" type of stuff. Is that what it is?

It's related to trading so I will give an example.

You don't see one of your setups that you normally take, but price runs really far and then you start looking back and questioning how price came back to a certain point and you should have known to go long or just some other random variable that you use to try to explain the movement of price, but when in real-time it wasn't really visible because you really had no idea what price was going to do next.

Or another example, you're looking for a place to enter, but you're really unsure of what to do. Price then starts spiking in the direction that you were thinking and then you start saying stuff like, "Yeah I should have shorted there..." but in reality you shouldn't have, you're just looking back in the past now that you saw what happened. It's not so much of seeing what setups work, it's more of like the "after-the-fact moment."

I know that is confusing, but I'm having a hard time trying to explain it without giving a specific example based on what someone I know does.
hindsight?
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08-25-2010 , 07:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Schwallie
hindsight?
Hmm...wiki says:

Quote:
Hindsight bias is the inclination to see events that have occurred as being more predictable than they were before they took place.
Sounds like that would explain it. I thought it would be something else, but that could be what I'm looking for. Thanks.
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08-25-2010 , 09:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nuclear500
Municipal Bonds it should be clarified, IMO.
No, he said he didn't want to receive dividends. Read more closely without assuming your 'clarification' into the question that was actually asked.

Quote:
Vanguard has some muni-bond funds.
Those may generally have taxable distributions, in OP's situation they may be taxed as 'dividends' based on his jurisdiction. Or not.

Also, those funds can bring AMT into play if he's a US taxpayer. It can all get very confusing.
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08-25-2010 , 11:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ItalianFX
I'm thinking this is something more scientific than that like "confirmation bias." Results oriented just doesn't sound right specific to what I am trying to explain.
recursive justification ftw
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08-26-2010 , 09:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DcifrThs
recursive justification ftw
I can't find any information on this. Could you link something to me that explains it?
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08-26-2010 , 10:08 AM
Hi

I'm looking to invest in mutual index funds, with low expense ratios. What companies are there for EU citizens (Slovakia/Czech rep.)? Ones like Vanguard are for US citizens, I'm looking for something similar

thanks
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08-26-2010 , 10:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ItalianFX
I can't find any information on this. Could you link something to me that explains it?
looks like a fancy way of saying circular logic.
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08-26-2010 , 10:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by zlo v kvetinaci
Hi

I'm looking to invest in mutual index funds, with low expense ratios. What companies are there for EU citizens (Slovakia/Czech rep.)? Ones like Vanguard are for US citizens, I'm looking for something similar

thanks
Did you look at the main site of vanguard very hard?
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08-26-2010 , 10:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArturiusX
Did you look at the main site of vanguard very hard?
Yes, I found vanguardeurope.com before posting. But no information about these accounts, if they are the same, if the interface is the same, if the purchase possibilities and fees are the same There is only information about the individual funds, but nothing about using the account/opening it/fees.
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08-26-2010 , 03:48 PM
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 4,572 Options question.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I have not traded options in 8 years.

Are they no longer traded in 0.05 increments?

Also, IB used to have $1/contract, does anyone know if they are still the best place to trade options with good executions, or does anyone have a recommendation?
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08-26-2010 , 04:42 PM
hey guys, just wanted some opinions about some passive investing i am thinking about. i haven't read a post in this thread so i apologize if it's the wrong place or if someone already said something similar.

i recently took a pretty decent chunk of my roll offline (left myself ~120 buyins) and want to get some kind of return with it. thinking about going with dividend funds, they seem to be a moderately stable idea from what i've read, although i don't really know. also, i think they might be beneficial because my marginal tax rate will probably be in the 28% range. i also have a mortgage, which i just refinanced at 3.875%, so i'm really in no hurry to pay it off early. am i better taking the 20-30k i have alloted for long-term investing and paying off some of my house (one year old, 14 years from paying off) or am i better off dumping the lump sum into a dividend ETF on vanguard?

i was thinking something like the dividend appreciation ETF because it has very little financials (which i want to stay away from) and telecomm (which i already have invested some money into). i also have a few g's in conservative stuff like TIPS and a bunch in my checking and savings so that i can go like 9 months without withdrawing again (the amount that makes me most comfortable)

any other ideas? anybody high on any other funds? i chose ETF because it has lower fees and i won't be making continuous deposits into it, is it a better choice for me than a mutual fund? i am not interested in picking single stocks, day trading, or anything complicated. thanks!
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08-27-2010 , 02:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NajdorfDefense
No, he said he didn't want to receive dividends. Read more closely without assuming your 'clarification' into the question that was actually asked.



Those may generally have taxable distributions, in OP's situation they may be taxed as 'dividends' based on his jurisdiction. Or not.

Also, those funds can bring AMT into play if he's a US taxpayer. It can all get very confusing.
Actually, I didn't care about receiving dividends, I cared about paying taxes for them. But now I realized that it may be possible to buy individual stocks which I could sell when they lost money so that I offset dividend wins (I'm not quite sure I can do that, from a tax perspective, though)

I'm canadian btw
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08-27-2010 , 08:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mastertop101
Actually, I didn't care about receiving dividends, I cared about paying taxes for them. But now I realized that it may be possible to buy individual stocks which I could sell when they lost money so that I offset dividend wins (I'm not quite sure I can do that, from a tax perspective, though)

I'm canadian btw
Capital Losses can only offset Capital Gains, not dividend income.
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08-27-2010 , 09:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigBiceps
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 4,572 Options question.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I have not traded options in 8 years.

Are they no longer traded in 0.05 increments?

Also, IB used to have $1/contract, does anyone know if they are still the best place to trade options with good executions, or does anyone have a recommendation?
Some are, some aren't. The more liquid option markets have switched to pennies, while a lot of the less liquid names still trade in nickles. The trend seems to be that more and more stocks are switching to penny traded options.
General investing questions, newbie queries and thoughts megathread Quote
08-28-2010 , 03:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pattay
hey guys, just wanted some opinions about some passive investing i am thinking about. i haven't read a post in this thread so i apologize if it's the wrong place or if someone already said something similar.

i recently took a pretty decent chunk of my roll offline (left myself ~120 buyins) and want to get some kind of return with it. thinking about going with dividend funds, they seem to be a moderately stable idea from what i've read, although i don't really know. also, i think they might be beneficial because my marginal tax rate will probably be in the 28% range. i also have a mortgage, which i just refinanced at 3.875%, so i'm really in no hurry to pay it off early. am i better taking the 20-30k i have alloted for long-term investing and paying off some of my house (one year old, 14 years from paying off) or am i better off dumping the lump sum into a dividend ETF on vanguard?

i was thinking something like the dividend appreciation ETF because it has very little financials (which i want to stay away from) and telecomm (which i already have invested some money into). i also have a few g's in conservative stuff like TIPS and a bunch in my checking and savings so that i can go like 9 months without withdrawing again (the amount that makes me most comfortable)

any other ideas? anybody high on any other funds? i chose ETF because it has lower fees and i won't be making continuous deposits into it, is it a better choice for me than a mutual fund? i am not interested in picking single stocks, day trading, or anything complicated. thanks!
What do you want out of the money? Growth, income? Is it for retirement? How long until you want the money back to use or will you ever use it? How old are you?
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08-28-2010 , 04:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GtrHtr
What do you want out of the money? Growth, income? Is it for retirement? How long until you want the money back to use or will you ever use it? How old are you?
i just want a better return than i'm getting currently. i don't know the difference between growth and income. i'm 23 so probably not retirement. it should be money i don't have to touch again for a long time, but i don't have a certain goal for it
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08-29-2010 , 03:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pattay
i just want a better return than i'm getting currently. i don't know the difference between growth and income. i'm 23 so probably not retirement. it should be money i don't have to touch again for a long time, but i don't have a certain goal for it
Income is money you want paid out to you immediately, Growth is more like an increase in the value of the asset you buy...
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08-30-2010 , 01:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pattay
i just want a better return than i'm getting currently. i don't know the difference between growth and income. i'm 23 so probably not retirement. it should be money i don't have to touch again for a long time, but i don't have a certain goal for it
If you don't really care about the short term and you're 23 I'd say your best 2 options would be from the ultimate portfolio driven by the $ you have available:

Option 1.

12% S&P 500 fund
12% Small Value Fund
12% Large Value fund
12% Small Cap fund
12% reit fund
40% short term bond fund changing to intermediate term once interest rates go up a while

rebalance 1 or 2 times a year

If you have more cash, you can branch out into international funds and break it down 10 ways:

6% in each of:
emerging markets fund
S&P 500 fund
International Small Value fund
International Small Cap fund
International Large Value fund
International Large Cap fund
US Large Value fund
US Large Cap fund
US Micro Cap fund
REIT fund
40% short term bond fund changing to intermediate term once interest rates go up in a while

also rebalance 1 or 2 times a year

If you really don't want to go through all that, pick broad equity indexs like

35% Vanguard Total Stock market index (the whole US stock market)
35% Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Index Fund (the rest of the world)
30% Vanguard total bond market index (the whole US bond market)

Rebalance 1 or 2 times a year

Rebalancing is shifting money between the funds to get them back into the % you allocated.

Last edited by GtrHtr; 08-30-2010 at 01:57 PM.
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08-30-2010 , 03:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GtrHtr
If you don't really care about the short term and you're 23 I'd say your best 2 options would be from the ultimate portfolio driven by the $ you have available:

Option 1.

12% S&P 500 fund
12% Small Value Fund
12% Large Value fund
12% Small Cap fund
12% reit fund
40% short term bond fund changing to intermediate term once interest rates go up a while

rebalance 1 or 2 times a year

If you have more cash, you can branch out into international funds and break it down 10 ways:

6% in each of:
emerging markets fund
S&P 500 fund
International Small Value fund
International Small Cap fund
International Large Value fund
International Large Cap fund
US Large Value fund
US Large Cap fund
US Micro Cap fund
REIT fund
40% short term bond fund changing to intermediate term once interest rates go up in a while

also rebalance 1 or 2 times a year

If you really don't want to go through all that, pick broad equity indexs like

35% Vanguard Total Stock market index (the whole US stock market)
35% Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Index Fund (the rest of the world)
30% Vanguard total bond market index (the whole US bond market)

Rebalance 1 or 2 times a year

Rebalancing is shifting money between the funds to get them back into the % you allocated.
awesome response, thanks so much!
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09-01-2010 , 10:48 AM
Noob question: is there an instrument that can be used to short the S&P 500 that is not compounded daily? If there is, would this be better than something like SDS (or the unleveraged equivalent) if you were planning to hold it for 1-3 months?

Thank You
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09-01-2010 , 12:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WiredRounder
Noob question: is there an instrument that can be used to short the S&P 500 that is not compounded daily? If there is, would this be better than something like SDS (or the unleveraged equivalent) if you were planning to hold it for 1-3 months?

Thank You
Options.
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09-01-2010 , 12:49 PM
SPY.
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