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February Trading Thread February Trading Thread

02-09-2012 , 06:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by straightaway
AAPL has been on a nice run lately. Anyone have an idea of what kind of support/resistance we will see at 500? I'm long now and want to add more but I'm wondering if we should expect some kind of pullback since it's been on such a tear. Looking at the future though there doesn't seem to be anything to slow it down especially with the ipad3 coming soon.
I sold it at 453, worried the whole market would pullback! Have no clue when it's going to come in or when/if I'll be able to buy it again.
February Trading Thread Quote
02-09-2012 , 06:49 PM
kind of disappointed in DECK today, It popped to 89 then got repelled all the way to 86 after it once it hit the 50dma. Probably some panic selling in there too.

I'm staying in this thing until Feb 27th report anyway, but it would be nice to get some cushion before the report.
February Trading Thread Quote
02-09-2012 , 07:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gna
ok so no go on BHI.. what do u guys think about SGI drop. I think it will get back on its feet. looking at the graph it rollercoasters up and down constantly
That's an ugly chart, prob heading lower imo.

Shrinking margins and complaining about Europe (which is an easy excuse imo):
http://www.forbes.com/sites/marketne...rtner=yahootix

I get that you are looking for stocks that have been under performing in hopes of finding value, but it might be worth considering that if a stock hasn't move up by now there is probably a good reason for it.

Next time your find a name, I'd first read the headlines to find a possible bull case.

Obv I'm bias towards Deck, but you might want to look into it. It's the under performer your looking for, it has solid fundamental, a great track record, and a legit bull case.
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02-09-2012 , 08:09 PM
i have made money off mktg and rovi coming back after crashing thats why I look into this type of stock. but yea I know what u mean. sold apple few days ago and am so tilted about it
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02-09-2012 , 08:10 PM
Would I be nuts to buy NBG? Or just a degenerate gambler?
February Trading Thread Quote
02-09-2012 , 08:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shoe
I'm expecting ATVI to issue good guidance tomorrow. Skylanders has turned into a huge surprise hit that I don't think has been priced into the stock yet. Hopefully their WoW numbers are holding up.
Looks like a nice call here. I was keeping an eye on this one as well.
February Trading Thread Quote
02-09-2012 , 08:16 PM
What do you guys think about DMND foods? It dropped over 36% due to inaccurate walnut pricings and management were fired. The cost were 60 million of understating their expenses. However even if the expenses are factored in, they still have more assets than debts, and are still continuing to make a smaller* profit.

The litigation issues surrounding the stock will bog the stock down for a few weeks, but a 36% drop to its new year low from a $96 high seems like a reasonable specualation to buy and hold.

Thoughts?
February Trading Thread Quote
02-09-2012 , 09:01 PM
I predicted about a month ago that we'd be at S+P 1350 in a few weeks/months, and we're here.

From a technical perspective, this is the 3rd or 4th time the market has tried to break out past the 1,350 resistance. I think this will be the time when we finally break through it. More specifically, I think we are going to 1,400 in the next few weeks, without a significant correction before we get there. History says we should at least have some consolidation period here around 1,350 before we breakout, but I don't think that's the case - I think this market is ready to spring up to 1,400 fairly quickly. I will have to re-evaluate when we are at 1,400, but I think we may be in for at least a small correction at that point.

Short-term fundamentals are solid too - unemployment should keep falling, even though a lot of that number is hogwash because of the labor force decreasing because of the long-term unemployed, but in the short-run, I don't think this market wants to hear about such things - unemployment is going lower, profits are rising, housing prices are doing okay, so the market is going to keep going up.

In the medium and long-term, I am not so optimistic, but over the next few weeks and months I am a bull, as I have been for several months.

As always, these are just my amateur two cents, based largely off gut-feel, so do your own homework, etc.
February Trading Thread Quote
02-09-2012 , 09:33 PM
i bought dmnd right away already up few bucks a share. i think theyll do well on long run
February Trading Thread Quote
02-09-2012 , 10:09 PM
fwiw goodwill isn't amortized, it's impaired.

and jim cramer advocates whatever's going up and does pretty close to zero analysis. he might've been good at some point (and probably was) but covering the entire market while going on tv makes ur alpha go to 0.
February Trading Thread Quote
02-09-2012 , 10:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tastychicken
fwiw goodwill isn't amortized, it's impaired.

and jim cramer advocates whatever's going up and does pretty close to zero analysis. he might've been good at some point (and probably was) but covering the entire market while going on tv makes ur alpha go to 0.
Impaired not Amortized..got it.

Personally, I love Cramer. Yeah he has to recommend 25 stocks or so a week so you get a lot of duds. But he consistently gives me 2-3 good ideas a week of which I can do my own research with.

Also, his general market analysis is more accurate than everyone on TV and most other people I find on the web and irl.
February Trading Thread Quote
02-10-2012 , 12:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gna
Would I be nuts to buy NBG? Or just a degenerate gambler?
Technically this one looks better (again I know nothing about the company). Nice tight handle before a big volume on the breakout is pretty bullish.

Do you have any info about them?
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02-10-2012 , 12:18 AM
for clarification when i say impaired i mean it's tested annually for impairment.

therefore you should not expect to be writing it down every year. they generally impair a lot at once if things go south.
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02-10-2012 , 12:27 AM
What do you guys think about OVTI?

They have an excellent Eps compared to Price as well as a great balance sheet and growing assets and revenue.

They have huge market share on their len systems and with new car sensor dectection, mobile phones, and other technology that requires their system then I see a big return on this investment.

With a 1.1 Price to Book ratio I cannot pass up this deal.
February Trading Thread Quote
02-10-2012 , 01:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tastychicken
for clarification when i say impaired i mean it's tested annually for impairment.

therefore you should not expect to be writing it down every year. they generally impair a lot at once if things go south.
Thanks, I was confused. Goodwill still seems like a flimsy asset that can disappear without much warning correct?

As investors, if we see a balance sheet that has a high % of assets allocated in goodwill is it sufficient just putting that in the bear column for the stock or do we need to specifically research the performance of the acquisitions? If it's not written down annually, yet not turning into a tangible asset how do we judge it's legitmacy?

LKQX is a company I loved but left off my watch list due to it's goodwill being higher than it's current assets. It felt too dangerous to me.
February Trading Thread Quote
02-10-2012 , 01:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by zmyworldz
What do you guys think about OVTI?

They have an excellent Eps compared to Price as well as a great balance sheet and growing assets and revenue.

They have huge market share on their len systems and with new car sensor dectection, mobile phones, and other technology that requires their system then I see a big return on this investment.

With a 1.1 Price to Book ratio I cannot pass up this deal.
At first, It looked good to me too when I looked it up. Analysts seem to hate it for some reason. EPS is projected to decrease by 40% in 2012. The mean price target is also less than it's trading for now.

You should probably listen to the most recent conference call before investing your money.
February Trading Thread Quote
02-10-2012 , 02:05 AM
Added 20% position to my solar stock ldk. Its been doin really well lately. Recovering after getting hammered from for almost a year. I hope my patiencw pays off.

Added 20% position to lvs due to making new highs and higher lows. Go Singapore and macau gambling!
February Trading Thread Quote
02-10-2012 , 02:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by savant111
Technically this one looks better (again I know nothing about the company). Nice tight handle before a big volume on the breakout is pretty bullish.

Do you have any info about them?
I have only been going on what I hear on the news about greece. But the fact that they cut a deal makes me feel like this stock is gunna bounce back to 6-7 dollars. huge risk tho.
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02-10-2012 , 02:27 AM
cramer pushed crzo again. looked into it. i dunno if it will shoot back up. honestly i do not see it. what do you guys think?
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02-10-2012 , 02:28 AM
Last thought of the night. You all should take a look at ypf. sexy dividend and huge upswing today. perhaps a good one to watch.
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02-10-2012 , 02:58 AM
CRZO don't seem very impressive in their fundamentals.

YPF seems a little over bought.
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02-10-2012 , 04:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cts
anyone own (i don't) or look at FLL?
Many unknowns, but as a rule of thumb I generally avoid AMEX stocks because I have had bad luck with them.
February Trading Thread Quote
02-10-2012 , 08:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by d2themfi
Wouldn't high inflation probably force the fed to raise interest rates, which would make servicing the debt harder, thus counteracting some or all of the benefit of inflation to a debtor? I'm no expert here, so am asking a question, not a statement fwiw.
depends on if they have fixed or floating debt. most companies have fixed so that would help them.
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02-10-2012 , 04:07 PM
Sold covered calls for $60 GILD at Jan and $21 CSCO at Oct, mostly to raise cash to enter a new position.

If they end up getting called, then oh well, I would make enough from the two to be happy.
February Trading Thread Quote
02-10-2012 , 05:32 PM
did anyone see Carefusion CFN? company is buying up its own shares. could be a good buy.
February Trading Thread Quote

      
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