Kelly Criterion is very reasonable and does not mean that you no longer believe.
Everybody believes in something with a certainty x. And if your certainty is x, you should adapt the size of your investment in relation to your overall bankroll accordingly. I guess this is not exactly what Kelly Criterion is, but the idea is the same.
Also how long to hold, is it impossible to believe that something is overpriced even if you happen to like that thing?

Somebody invests into ETH believing it is useful only for Application Z (let's say online slot gambling) and let's just presume that this maximum value is reached with a 30billion market cap.
Time to cash-out (before the drop ofc lol). You still believe in the project, but right now it is over-priced for this investor.

I find it very hard to evaluate crypto and a lot is playing by ear. Evaluating cryptos to each other seems easier.
Is it winner takes all, aka if ETH can enable decentralized online poker, will it force out everybody else? Will it take 40% market share? Will it work at all? Will another crypto replace ETH in this market? How much can it or other cryptos penetrate other markets?

Most people who say crypto123 is overpriced do it based on anchoring. I see many BTC sceptics who would definitely buy it at $1200 today, while it was totally overvalued at $400 not too long ago. Same goes for ETH.

How much crypto is over/underpriced depends today mainly on how big you dream. I haven't read/thought about a way to price cryptos any better. Perhaps somebody here knows.

I think a decent starting point is observing each crypto's actual daily txn volume (absolute and in $ terms) on its blockchain. That is an indicator that will show its use and growth over time.

You can also look at its daily exchange volume (absolute and $ terms).

People also track wallet downloads/use like blockchain.info.


The latest research i read in 2016 showed that bitcoin was growing 50-100% using these metrics yoy from 2013 on.

Not really sure what your point is or if it even applies here given the fact that there aren't many assets that offer the upside crypto does.

If passing on a guaranteed 10k in hopes of hitting a 1% outer for a ton of money is -EV, that's fine for me since 10k doesn't enough of a difference to me. It's like how playing the lotto is -EV but the upside is so great that it makes it worthwhile anyway.

Regretting passing on your offer right about now haha

Anyway hoped you crushed in vegas

@aggo:
Yep, ignoring some small manipulations (more on smaller coins) trade volume is a good starting point, definitely, although if you want to deduce the value, it will result in a circular argument (if you want to assume that trading volume increase correlates to price increase). Even if it does (i "believe" it does), how much is the key factor here.

Scanning media for keywords is also along these lines, but definitely more difficult than looking at Ebitda.

Exchanges sit on the most valuable data imo, which is new real users. Second to that, the wallets that you mentioned.

I am talking about utility of money not expected value. And actually decreasing marginal returns is another reason NOT to play the lotto.

If you already have enough money that any additional money has very little value then that is a good reason to sell at that point- that is correct.

But it is not a reason to hold waiting to get to that point on the curve where it is nearly flat. You already had "life changing money." The first $30k will change your life more than the next $30k and so on.

I understand what you're saying now I just disagree with it completely

It's possible you have a bizarre utility curve diskoteque, but statistically more likely you just don't understand your own utility curve.

It's possible that I am undervaluing the utility of smaller amounts I guess, yes.

My thinking is that I should never sell when the utility of my gains are ~zero (i.e. my life changes in no meaningful way). So even though the first $xxx is more valuable than $xxx(2), neither are relevant when the only outcome I'm interested in is 7 figures or whatever.

Maybe my issue is that I view crypto investing as providing binary outcomes - either it ends with life changing money or it doesn't. I don't have an opportunity to make this much anywhere else, so in my view making 10k in crypto and realizing my gains is much different and less valuable than realizing a 10k gain on IBM stock.

Looks like Eth exploding on EEA news

https://entethalliance.org/enterpris...in-initiative/

Mastercard, Cisco Systems, Scotiabank, Government of Andhra Pradesh the big names

uh oh, finally good news materializing into the price. Great stuff, maybe the end of the bear run but who knows with august first and tezos sitting on their ether.

https://github.com/ethereum/EIPs/pul...d111ff74f14R12


pos may be delayed.

now that the bounce is in, I expect kazuya to post anytime now

Tezos tl:dr?

How much they holding? Is it from an ico?

Tezos ico raised 361k eth plus an amount of bitcoin worth more than that. At 250$/eth, thats about $90mil. Past 24hr eth volume traded is a whopping $2.3 Billion.

Based on those numbers, them dumping their load isn't the end of the world then I'd think?

Based on those numbers, them dumping their load isn't the end of the world then I'd think?

Obviously that volume number isn't standard, but it seems there's plenty of action out there to soak up any large sells. Even if the market drops a bit because of it, its likely to be very temporary.

OTC market exhausting?

btc next?

https://tezos.ch/diversifying-the-po...zos-foundation

Have they addressed anything about reducing block reward? It's still beyond me that Vitalik thinks the more coins they print the better the security. How does he not realize if he prints less coins, each coin becomes worth more, thus you get the same hash power?

idk, but i hate that cryptographers play economists.

imo when it comes to playing economist these things: if its not broke-- dont fix it.


there's an EIP to reduce reward to 3 mETH at the metropolis hf.


side note: someone smart told me the daimler bond test is a big deal.

I also feel that it's not in Tezos' interest to crash ETH until Tezos itself has momentum. If smart contract market cap gets popped, then there goes Tezos' growth narrative. Arthur is a pretty smart guy and will probably sell gradually.



This is not surprising and I wouldn't be shocked to see more delays. PoS is a very difficult problem and they should take the time they need to get it right.


Short term effects of changing block reward:

Larger block reward --> More miners mine ETH over ETC/ZEC --> More hash power --> More cost to do a 51% attack --> More security

Smaller block reward --> Miners leave to mine ETC/ZEC --> Less hash power --> Less cost to do a 51% attack --> Less security

On the other hand, I do think there's some merit to the argument of lowering the miner reward considering hash power hasn't reached equilibrium with the current ETH price. I've read that the ROI on mining ETH is still somewhere around 400%. For comparison, it's somewhere around 100% for BTC. Ideally, I assume somewhere <50% would be optimal.

Yeah that seem's a pretty fair argument, crypto is a pretty unique situation in that respect and I hadn't really thought of it that way before.

A good question to ask yourself: If you had all your assets converted to cash, how would you invest today? Another question to follow up: If you had that strategy would you have gotten to where you are now having this luxury problem?

During the years I have been in the crypto space I have seen some pretty insane returns compared to all my previous experience with investments. A few things I have learnt: Holding would have beaten most of my strategies. Also holding is very risky. A good compromise is probably somewhere in between. Along the way I decided to cash out 20% every time the price doubles. That way I still have an insane upside and if it fails I will still have made a killing. Also it would have gotten me to where the point I am today. So until I find some better one, I will keep to this strategy.

You mean 20% of what you have left, right?

If POS + interoperability (cosmos / melonport) is figured out there is no need for any communal blockchain. Every project can run on its own blockchain and not be subject to bloat of other projects on the same chain.