New Zealand claims it's virtually eradicated. China says it's contained.

$$$

I think the number of people that have new habits / new interests / new priorities like buying/upgrading assets will exist, and those that go back to old habits will also exist.

ITs more a shift in where the money goes than whether it goes. Because people fairly reliably find ways to spend all their money on something.

There is going to be less $ to spend because of economic slowdown

So the could not be more right wing in context of the UK government is going to start quarantining at airports.

In June.

Democracy is the best worst system as someone once said and we are demonstrating all the worst failings of it. That it can be captured by a populist showman who has has a skill set for being elected but not for actually governing.

More staggering evidence of the difference HcL makes when used early. Italy needing exponentially less ICU patients every day compared to France. Italy been using HcL early for people, France hasn't. Facts.

https://twitter.com/LukeMor19529310/...38275115626504

Not that facts matter or have any bearing on your feelings. I understand. This is a safe space, just like everywhere. Reality isn't of the least bit importance.

Humans are bad with money so eventually they will revert back to the mean. Which is spend on things they don't need.

2020 the consumer habits may have changed.

But when things are "good" again economically people will go back to spending.

I think just compared to a month ago people are already starting to slip back into their pre-Corona spending habits.

Im so tired of conspiracy theories. Its the main symptom of anti-intellectual thought.

Everyone should read this article.

(This thread is a good microcosm of all the behavior pitfalls and limitations in thinking about this pandemic. The amateur epidemiologists, the anti expert sentiment, the fast spread of misinformation, and on and on. )


https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...tainty/610819/

.......................

story of how an angry mob of New Yorkers attacked and burnt down a Quarantine Hospital that treated immigrants in 1858




https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/08/r...=Real%20Estate

Dr. Fauci and Dr. Redfield (head of CDC) are in self-quarantine after exposure to an infected person.

Was Pence the infected person?

The source I read said the identity of the COVID-19 positive individual had not been revealed. Pence's press sec tested positive on Friday.

Hahn (FDA Commissioner) also in self-quarantine.

Impact of easing Lockdown in Germany according to the Robert Koch Institute. R now above 1.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...-korea-deaths-

As posted on same issue on the 28th April.

Hope Boris is listening hard

Except the people in thread have CRUSHED the experts you buttkiss. Our hitrate for being correct since Feb 1 on how this would unfold, on what had to be done, on disagreeing with experts starting from the first WHO press conference onward, has been perfect. The main symptoms of anti-intellectual thought is choosing a side (love experts, hate Trump) over facts/reality/rationality/being intellectual (experts botched this horribly and unforgivably, even more incompetently than Trump).

Another symptom of anti-intellectual thought is to blindly follow orthodoxy rather than reason. It's quite probable this came from the Wuhan lab.

- Chinese labs have previously lost SARS viruses multiple times, resulting in local population outbreaks.
- The lab itself was studying dozens of SARS-like bat coronaviruses of a type that don't exist in Wuhan
- The control was so poor that the lab themselves published papers last years where bats attacked and peed on the researchers and left bat blood on them, according to the researchers themselves from their own scientific journal papers

To look at those facts and dismiss this as a "conspiracy theory" makes you redneck-level anti-intellectual. Worse than redneck. I can't fathom the level of stupid you'd have to be to dismiss this as a conspiracy theory.

It sickens me to see the damage that experts are doing with their focus on "hard facts" to the detriment of "intelligent swift action without knowing all the facts". Their deeply epistemologically flawed love of the former (which takes months and therefore is far too slow for a pandemic response) and their incompetence in the latter is the reason we needlessly have a pandemic with millions going to be dead and trillions in economic damage. None of this would have happened if experts weren't worthless human beings in fast moving situations.

Of course masking up alone is likely to greatly reduce spread and easily get it below 1. Everyone dying today is dying because experts are incompetent.

more info on the SK outbreak:

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-he...-idUKKBN22M024

Close clubs, block dating apps until it's eradicated. How is this so hard?

It's amazing how long this last bit is taking. There's only one sane way to deal with this:

- Pursue an eradication strategy. That has to be your total focus, not "flattening the curve", or it will be messed up because you're acting with the wrong goal in mind.
- When you're close to eradication, INCREASE measures for the final two weeks.

If you're not going to pursue this strategy then you need to do a Sweden strategy where it goes through the population. The middle road that most countries are pursuing is the worst of both worlds.

Countries are doing the opposite - relaxing measures when it's down to <10 in the county/country. All that does is successfully prolong the partial lockdowns/economic damage. This could have easily been zero late April with a final eradication push:

It would be great to follow of a policy of 'lets redouble our efforts and kill this virus off'.
It would be great to hear Boris/etc go for it.

But we still have the same old issue of consent of most of the people being required. Do we have leaders who can carry them when the sun shines and the bodies aren't piling up so much?

The UK loser experts produced hopelessly faulty models - which they're still defending because academics care about their reputation and power far more than people dying. That was the basis of the UK response. Blaming this on the leaders is comical - leaders follow their experts in things like this, because what other choice do they have? They're not epidemiologists and don't have time to pore over the data like we did in this thread. The response to this virus has been a failure of the expert class, not leaders.

Consent isn't required for a strong lockdown. Much of the world has done harsh lockdowns without consent, including most Western democracies. Extending it for two weeks isn't hard either. You literally arrest and fine or imprison people who don't social distance. The courts are sensible enough to be happy to suspend democratic freedoms in a pandemic, and the UK government has these powers anyway.

And there's no question people would get behind an eradication push. It's a huge positive and source of pride and freedom. I've lived among people pursuing it, it's great. But the moron/loser experts in the UK and elsewhere said that was impossible from the get-go (probably partly because they're hard left and closing borders is unthinkable to them), dooming the whole thing. What people can't get behind is an undefined flattening of the curve and "herd immunity". It makes no sense from a messaging or logical perspective.

Compare:

"Stay at home but you're going to get infected anyway and the sooner you do the better! But stay at home. Or else. We're flattening the curve, but the virus isn't going away and the sooner we have herd immunity the sooner we can open up! But stay at home or else we'll drone you. Oh and even after opening up we'll have rolling lockdowns for 18 months"

OR

"We're going to eradicate this virus from the UK and be free of it. We need all of you to help and do your part. You need to police and help your neighbors and friends to do the right thing - wear a mask, stay away from each other. Together, we can beat this in 6 weeks if we all do the right thing, and be free of coronavirus, and life will return to normal for good. A little pain for a huge gain".

People get behind lofty, sensible, victory-seeking goals and are half assed about illogical, defeatist, contradictory ones. Your sickening defeatism is typical of the UK expert class, and why this pandemic exists. Rapid decisive action of the type Trump did on Jan 31 (before deep state experts screwed up the testing ramp and destroyed all hope of containing it in the US) is impossible with the kind of mindset you/your experts have.

I'm only going to address this bit because it gets too silly otherwise

That isn't going to happen unless the vast majority consent to stronger lockdowns to kill it off. You may think it would or should but that wont change that it wont. Not in the UK and not in most liberal democracies.

It may be that a sufficiently good politician could persuade people to consent. I'd even very much like Boris to try. I don't think it will happen.

Do they actually have the power to shut down the dating apps?

If so easy short of MTCH


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Eradication was never part of the initial discussion or deal and an eradication strategy would do irreparable harm in the way of unintended consequences not to mention common sense. We have flattened the curve and have learned that only the most vulnerable members of society (the elderly with other problems already) are the most at risk. 40% of deaths in the US have come from nursing homes. So we tighten that down with every measure available!

But opening the economy with common sense safeguards (distancing, masks etc.) is a must at this point. Clubs, casinos, concerts any big group event really will suffer until this is behind us. But most people have seen enough data that unless they are in a high risk category they will likely be fine even if they get it. Most realize they have just as much risk shopping for groceries as they would have doing almost anything else. And those still worried can voluntarily drop out of society until they feel safe as no one will force them to go to a club, concert or even get a haircut. But the world has to start functioning again.

How are such perspectives even possible.