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Coronavirus Coronavirus

04-24-2020 , 02:59 PM
Buy the company that makes these and crush instead

04-24-2020 , 03:01 PM
Even with the occasional derails and the sniping from folks who disagree strongly politically, this is still by far the best thread and analysis around. Honestly gives me hope good discussions are still possible.
04-24-2020 , 03:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by "88k"
Does anybody here regularly play in VIX options? (i realize selling vol since 08 / central bank hand holding / vol crushing regime has mostly been the play the past decade)

I do some part time consulting work for a family office on the side, and the principal asked me "if I wanted to structure some exposure via long VIX calls because I think we're going to have another 30+% leg lower in stocks by the end of year, what would that look like?" He did not sound like he wanted to pay another fund mgmt/incentive fees for something off the shelf.

I am certainly familiar with them but don't have any serious experience trading options or VIX options, but am going to start digging (or this compared to just buying longer dated S&P puts, etc). There's been a lot of options talk recently so was curious if anyone had any thoughts or things to consider when approaching this if someone simply wanted a cost-effective way to get long vol via VIX options over the course of the year (or what part of curve, etc). I know that is a broad and generic question, but just figured I'd ask.
I've looked at them time and time again and never pulled the trigger on them, because you can always make the bet more profitably other ways (like SPY or inflated stock puts). Since VIX options are essentially options on futures contracts (and not spot VIX), you can run into some weird issues where pricing is way off what you'd expect because of major contango/backwardation.

I would personally express your thesis differently - if you think the market will drop 30%, then just straight bet on that rather than trying to get clever on volatility. Your principle must be very bearish if he thinks it's likely to drop that much so why doesn't he sell a wide call spread and buy puts? Structure it for the same loss (100%) if he's very wrong (market ATH), a nice chunk of sold-call profit if the market goes down by end of year from here, and a 3 bagger or so if he's very right.

There are economic recession scenarios where his VIX calls won't pay but SPY will go down 30% (slow bleed rather than fear). Definitely want to avoid that tiltmonkey scenario; in general don't be clever and just bet on the event you're predicting will happen.
04-24-2020 , 04:34 PM
Starting to see data come in from studies in Miami and Delaware. Nothing earth shaking, but the estimated infections were both 15x that of reported cases. The IFR in both was pretty low, but obviously that changes over time. Delaware was a sewage study, which looks like the easiest way to get quick results, as they are close to what is being reported in other areas and don't have any selection bias, since everybody poops.
04-24-2020 , 04:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jsb235
Starting to see data come in from studies in Miami and Delaware. Nothing earth shaking, but the estimated infections were both 15x that of reported cases. The IFR in both was pretty low, but obviously that changes over time. Delaware was a sewage study, which looks like the easiest way to get quick results, as they are close to what is being reported in other areas and don't have any selection bias, since everybody poops.

Link...
04-24-2020 , 04:49 PM
Well, in sewage studies, selection bias is replaced by a 50x spread in the relationship between sewage viral load and infection rate. There's no known baseline/rate to compare it to, just a wide range of what likely viral sheds are per infection which mean wild ass guesses and ranges so broad as to be meaningless.
04-24-2020 , 05:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by arjun13
Yeah okay. I've been a professional trader for nearly a decade now and have got numerous things wrong on various timeframes (fundamental things, micro things, whatever). You not being able to admit that you have NEVER got analysis wrong on a real world event is pretty LOL.
.
I’m new to BFI and almost immediately realized TS is the laughing stock here. When asked to show receipts guy ****ing posts trades from 2014 (not kidding) and his thread on his bet vs Brian (that could spin up 1k —> 6k in a year) is hilarious - he posted one trade that year that lost and then claimed that he didn’t post several winners that would have won the bet because they were such “layups” that it would have been “unsportsmanlike” of him. Many posters in that thread allege he is a scammer and warn others to beware

BFI seems pretty alright so far just too bad the threads are clogged the up with TS’s endless walls of text of bullshit
04-24-2020 , 05:13 PM
With a high powered perception like that it's no wonder you're tarding up this thread with your garden variety Trump hottakes. I have a few very loud detractors, but about 80% of people here would say I'm the best analyst in BFI and have made them more money than any single poster. Welcome to BFI, post less, think more (or at least try to be on topic). Thanks.
04-24-2020 , 05:33 PM
Talking on FB as to why Israel has only 194 deaths. I am from the UK so someone was saying I was wrong to make the comparison and should maybe compare to Germany instead. It still makes for an interesting discussion. Why is their death rate so low? Does temperature help? I believe they did stop flights early or made people quarantine? I mentioned Israel because that is the one country o know would be doing all they can along with having smart and competent people.
04-24-2020 , 05:40 PM
Both between and within countries in the same broad climate area, covid deaths correlate very strongly with IQ of countries/groups. No surprise Israel would be doing well. They're small, nimble, intelligent and also a surveillance state, which helps.

Weather helps too.
04-24-2020 , 05:47 PM
Thanks Tooth. UK is a surveillance country too.
04-24-2020 , 06:15 PM
Tooth, somebody just told me to look at Vietnam. They took action straight away and apparently zero deaths. You been following them?
04-24-2020 , 06:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PuttingInTheGrind
Thanks Tooth. UK is a surveillance country too.
Not to the extent of Israel.

Like S. Korea they have compulsory national service, high IQ/technology, social cohesion, and the perception of constant threat from a neighbor, which are conducive to excellent surveillance infrastructure, and its acceptance by the populace.
04-24-2020 , 06:51 PM
04-24-2020 , 07:15 PM
Interesting to hear other peoples points of view. Dr. Anders Tegnell, chief epidemiologist at Sweden’s Public Health Agency claims that Sweden could be weeks away from herd immunity and that closing the borders is stupid.

https://thehill.com/changing-america...y-in-weeks-top

Last edited by PuttingInTheGrind; 04-24-2020 at 07:21 PM.
04-24-2020 , 07:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Well, in sewage studies, selection bias is replaced by a 50x spread in the relationship between sewage viral load and infection rate. There's no known baseline/rate to compare it to, just a wide range of what likely viral sheds are per infection which mean wild ass guesses and ranges so broad as to be meaningless.
No
Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerHero77
The MA study was 430 reported cases with estimate range [2300, 115000], so about 7x under-count assuming lowest bound. Assuming geometric mean that goes up to 16k, or about 35x under-count.
04-24-2020 , 07:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PuttingInTheGrind
Tooth, somebody just told me to look at Vietnam. They took action straight away and apparently zero deaths. You been following them?
Shut down all travel to/from China very early (3 weeks earlier than US). Eventually shut down all international travel.

New York on the other hand admitted 350,000 travelers from China during that time.
04-24-2020 , 07:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PuttingInTheGrind
Interesting to hear other peoples points of view. Dr. Anders Tegnell, chief epidemiologist at Sweden’s Public Health Agency claims that Sweden could be weeks away from herd immunity and that closing the borders is stupid.

https://thehill.com/changing-america...y-in-weeks-top
I guess they knew that school age kids had close to zero chance of dying from CV. Go figure.
04-24-2020 , 07:34 PM
Idk why people are coming in here attacking. TS's posts usually have some gold. And if he stops posting people go nuts wanting him to come back.

I was really sad for a while until TS finally called me an idiot, felt like I finally got my scout badge. Lurkers, you have not fully lived until you start posting here!

Recently he wrote the phrase "clownshow of incompetence". I really liked that. It's a good way to describe my poker skills.
04-24-2020 , 07:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll
takes a special kind of person to post like this
Waiting for your elaboration...
04-24-2020 , 07:37 PM
But what about all the people pooping into septic tanks? #OldHousePoopMatters
04-24-2020 , 07:42 PM
The article 2 days ago by Dr. Scott Atlas of Stanford has a lot of people up in arms. Basically, with the exception of stretching IFR a bit in his favor he makes almost perfect sense.

Link: https://thehill.com/opinion/healthca...otal-isolation
Quote:
Fact 1: The overwhelming majority of people do not have any significant risk of dying from COVID-19.
Fact 2: Protecting older, at-risk people eliminates hospital overcrowding.
Fact 3: Vital population immunity is prevented by total isolation policies, prolonging the problem.
Fact 4: People are dying because other medical care is not getting done due to hypothetical projections.
Fact 5: We have a clearly defined population at risk who can be protected with targeted measures.
Some numbers from the article:
-NYC people under 18 have less than 1 in 100,000 chance of dying from CV;
-99.2% of the confirmed CV deaths in NYC had an underlying condition (e.g. obesity, diabetes, heart disease, kidney disease, etc.);
-NY state hospitalizations for under 18 is 0.01%;
-NY state hospitalizations for 18-44 is 0.1%;
-80% of scheduled brain surgeries were missed;
-uncounted acute sufferers missed procedures and either died or are permanently disabled.

Of course a lot of people just "LOL Stanford" and summarily dismiss the article.

Last edited by PokerHero77; 04-24-2020 at 07:50 PM.
04-24-2020 , 07:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Best Buddy
Idk why people are coming in here attacking. TS's posts usually have some gold. And if he stops posting people go nuts wanting him to come back.

I was really sad for a while until TS finally called me an idiot, felt like I finally got my scout badge. Lurkers, you have not fully lived until you start posting here!

Recently he wrote the phrase "clownshow of incompetence". I really liked that. It's a good way to describe my poker skills.
Who cares what the haters think?

TS did exceptionally well and was the first to warn of this virus when people like me thought it was all nonsense. I am taking it on the chin, saying sorry to TS, he was right and I was wrong.

TS also has great analysis and I love reading his posts.

As for the haters, that probably just shows you are good at what you do and hating says a lot about them....and finally, who cares?
04-24-2020 , 08:03 PM
To throw the other argument out there, how does locking down actually stop this? Sure, it stops the hospitals from collapse, but after locking down and contact tracing, how do you do this with a population of say, 100 million people? Isn't the only way either vaccine or herd immunity? If not, how do you contact trace with such a large population and do you then lock down everyone positive? You then need reliable tests. What if the virus spreads faster than you can test and trace?

      
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