Yeah I give that video a big thumbs down. Swine and Spanish flu comparisons don't really equate to today. And people know they aren't going to die, they are worried about their older relatives actually dying and the world economy.
Swine flu case fatality rate was less than 0.1%, corona virus is 10-20x that with an R0 that is equal at best and at worst 2x.
Also the swine flu didn't cause a worldwide recession while coronavirus likely will.
Spanish flu comparisons are just nonsense for reasons stated above. I'm not going after Bill Gates, I just think its important to know the specifics about the spanish flu rather than just quoting deaths/infections.
Quote:
Originally Posted by despacito
To your points:
1. Agree hospitals and medical treatment now > 1918. But capacity still big problem everywhere.
2. Disagree. Real world number of infections/deaths matter. Not a theoretical-identical-conditions-vacuum comparison. Therefore, take medical treatment as it exists in the real world at the time an outbreak occurs. Would the COVID-19 CFR be higher due to bacterial co-infection if antibiotics did not exist? I don't think I should care (unless we run out of antibiotics).
3. My understanding is cytokine storm occurs in many illnesses, including coronavirus in a minority of cases. Source: spoke to a cardiologist about this topic (note: not a virus specialist). Also read journal articles that back this up but am not a subject matter expert so I may be missing something or misinterpreting. Not trying to flex. If someone knows, or has sources, pls explain or link.
4. Not sure what your point is, can you elaborate?
1. Agree hospitals can be overwhelmed in any era
2. I'm making the argument that had antibiotics been widely available 100 years ago, that the death rate would have dropped significantly. Same with cytokine reaction treatments.
3/4. Younger/healthier people died at a higher rate in 1918 because their healthier immune systems were more likely to produce a cytokine overload, which was a huge cause of death. Clearly that is not the case today with this virus. That combined with secondary bacterial infections, also being a massive cause of death, makes any comparison to the spanish flu nonsense.
Last edited by Pinkmann; 02-29-2020 at 05:58 AM.