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Coronavirus Coronavirus

01-27-2021 , 09:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
...

Some food for thought though: 75% immunity rate Manaus in Brazil (right in the Amazon) is having a hospital-overwhelming second wave right now (which shouldn't be possible). New Scientist holds forth:

‘A complete massacre, a horror film’: inside Brazil's Covid disaster

Covid-19 outbreak in Manaus suggests herd immunity may not be possible
But, but the 2+2 BroScientists ensured us this was not even a possibility of the Let it Rip strategy. That herd immunity was sure to kick in.

They believed it was so certain and factual that government should just roll those dice with no plan B and no ability to retreat if wrong. Just do it.

They think that is the way govt's should enact strategy. All Plan A with no Plan B, no ability to retreat or retrench to another position if wrong. Just a big "OOPS", if they get it wrong.
01-27-2021 , 10:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RikaKazak

Also you guys seem to be missing my point. It's about the media going "ZOMG IT'S SO BAD" when it wasn't "bad" in her particular area.



That was my point. Not that "x nurse says it's not bad so it's not bad anywhere."



2+2 has really gone down hill. I guess with the money drying up in poker a large % of the intelligent moved on and what's left is the degens and a few smart guys.
The recent data has shown rising numbers of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. Starting to plateau now. Those are hard numbers. Why would anyone give more credence to one anecdotal story from your buddy's wife, over hard data from state health agencies, the CDC, etc.?

I mean I'm glad her hospital hasn't been too bad I suppose. Not much comfort to the +600k who will end up dead in the US, but good for her.
01-27-2021 , 12:19 PM
Hey Tooth, now that idiot Trump is out are you done trying to keep the door open to Hydroxy potentially having some benefits, a position you took in opposition to the experts?

For sale in Oklahoma: a large stockpile of hydroxychloroquine.

The Oklahoma Department of Health is still trying to unload a stockpile of hydroxychloroquine — an antimalarial drug touted by former President Donald J. Trump as a “miracle” cure for Covid-19 despite a lack of evidence that it effectively treats the disease — that it purchased for $2 million last spring.

Mike Hunter, the state’s attorney general, has been brought on to assist the health department in selling back the drug...

Oklahoma has been trying to unload the stockpile for months...
01-27-2021 , 12:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by revots33
The recent data has shown rising numbers of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. Starting to plateau now. Those are hard numbers. Why would anyone give more credence to one anecdotal story from your buddy's wife, over hard data from state health agencies, the CDC, etc.?

I mean I'm glad her hospital hasn't been too bad I suppose. Not much comfort to the +600k who will end up dead in the US, but good for her.
I think it's fair criticism the media has underreported the expansion of capacity and understanding of how to care for Covid-19 in most of the country, which manifests in mostly steady fatality rates and far fewer stories of "triage" than 10 months ago.

It helps a lot that across the country ER visits for other causes (car accidents for example) are WAY down
01-27-2021 , 05:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
1. Hard lockdown early followed by a lot more opening than they did. In the long run it's a big negative maintaining restrictions in summer.

2. Hospitals aren't overwhelming because covid is broadly spread in the US rather than localized heavily in a few spots, and 4K deaths is a little more than 0.001% of the population (i.e. miniscule). It's one person in 90,000 dying per day from covid. The size of the US makes these numbers seem big, but they're really not.

3. The vaccines will start to matter at the same time that spring does. The two will coincide beautifully. Spring + current inoculation rates are bigger than vaccines however in the short run.

Some food for thought though: 75% immunity rate Manaus in Brazil (right in the Amazon) is having a hospital-overwhelming second wave right now (which shouldn't be possible). New Scientist holds forth:

‘A complete massacre, a horror film’: inside Brazil's Covid disaster

Covid-19 outbreak in Manaus suggests herd immunity may not be possible
Shouldn't that Brazil story be in direct contradiction with your 'let it rip'-thesis?
I see 2 scenarios:
1/ Immunity post-infection isn't long or strong => let it rip isn't worth it.
2/ Immunity doesn't protect against mutations => let it rip results in more mutations.


Another interesting data point related to this is Portugal. Portugal has incredibly close ties to Brazil of course, and Portugal is suffering from a terrible wave right now. They are about to overtake the Slovenia their peak 7-day average DPM. After that only Belgium remains. (highest DPM peak "records" right now excluding microstates are Belgium > Slovenia > Portugal)
I think this is possibly a data point for the new Brazil mutation being very bad, but the data coming out of Brazil not being reliable/amazing.

Last edited by bbfg; 01-27-2021 at 05:35 PM. Reason: Confused UK with Slovenia in a graph, sorry if anyone read before correction
01-27-2021 , 06:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bbfg
Shouldn't that Brazil story be in direct contradiction with your 'let it rip'-thesis?
I see 2 scenarios:
1/ Immunity post-infection isn't long or strong => let it rip isn't worth it.
2/ Immunity doesn't protect against mutations => let it rip results in more mutations.
Hey, I favored harsh actions early to contain and eradicate it. But cuck experts failed to anticipate the threat and likely outcome, so here we are.

Given that the cumulative deaths (= infections) are the same in open societies vs 3x lockdown + restricted + masks + economy destroyed ones, neither (1) or (2) apply since the outcomes are the same as measured in real world data.

Given that immunity seems to be working very well in making the second wave less intense (just look at the countries like Slovenia and Czechia who had no first wave), I think the let it rip immunity approach is clearly preferable and sensible.

In this case my money is on a nasty Brazilian strain that antibodies and possibly vaccines don't work on.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Washington Post
There is also some early evidence that antibodies might not recognize the P.1 variant, which could lead to reinfection.
Will vaccines work?

There’s no strong evidence right now suggesting that vaccines won’t work against the Brazil variant. However, scientists have raised the possibility that this variant can evade antibodies, which would impact the current vaccines’ effectiveness.
As for mutations, apart from the fact that severe lockdowns and restrictions haven't helped at all in the long run over the course of the pandemic in lowering infections, corona is spreading through the world's mammals at a rapid rate. For example, minks in Denmark had to be mass culled when they got a nasty variant that could be transmitted to humans. That cat is well and truly out of the bag, and this is looking a lot like a flu or cold scenario where there are so many mutations a vaccine can't keep up (except this one destroys your lungs and is a cousin of a 10% death rate virus).

Last edited by ToothSayer; 01-27-2021 at 06:54 PM.
01-27-2021 , 07:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GodgersWOAT
Suicides are way up, like a couple hundred extra this year.

COVID deaths up like 400,000 tho.
That's a lot. On both sides
Because lockdowns are responsible for taking more life years than they're saving. Many people are starting to realize this even tho it is hard to measure scientifically.
01-28-2021 , 02:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RikaKazak
What are hospitals suppose to do? Just shut down when the nurses want more money? If someone is dying it seems like people would want "nurse scabs" and not just a massive walk out. Seems like a completely different scenario then a "person who makes x unimportant widget and is a scab." imo

Also you guys seem to be missing my point. It's about the media going "ZOMG IT'S SO BAD" when it wasn't "bad" in her particular area.

That was my point. Not that "x nurse says it's not bad so it's not bad anywhere."

2+2 has really gone down hill. I guess with the money drying up in poker a large % of the intelligent moved on and what's left is the degens and a few smart guys.
hospitals should pay people more.

but my point was that scabs shouldnt be trusted. kinda like snitches but worse.
01-28-2021 , 03:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Victor
hospitals should pay people more.

but my point was that scabs shouldnt be trusted. kinda like snitches but worse.
Who is the real you?

The first or second part of your post?
01-28-2021 , 05:49 AM
Wife and I got vaccinated last night. Horray!
01-28-2021 , 08:11 AM
so Fauci says wearing double masks is "common sense" now?

if 2 is better than 1 then maybe 3 is better than 3? what about 4?
01-28-2021 , 08:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lvr
so Fauci says wearing double masks is "common sense" now?

if 2 is better than 1 then maybe 3 is better than 3? what about 4?


Amazing it took these douchebag experts a whole year to come up with "common sense" that the non-tards in this thread have been doing already.
01-28-2021 , 09:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lvr
so Fauci says wearing double masks is "common sense" now?



if 2 is better than 1 then maybe 3 is better than 3? what about 4?
More is better obv but at some point it becomes difficult to breathe.

If we had an adequate supply of n95 masks from the beginning, deaths would be far lower. The original "expert" advice, which was NOT to wear masks at all - that they would do more harm than good - was based 100% on a fear of a run on n95s, leaving none for front line healthcare workers. The advice bordered on malpractice imo. I get that there was a shortage, so it was a tough situation. But those lies from doctors undoubtedly led to deaths, which goes against the Hippocratic oath.
01-28-2021 , 09:47 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lvr
so Fauci says wearing double masks is "common sense" now?

if 2 is better than 1 then maybe 3 is better than 3? what about 4?
Why are you being so stupid. Of course it will help and add extra protection. Just as the typical medical mask, that is purposely layered makes a difference over a simple cloth mask.

Even Tooth is smart enough to understand that layers matter. This is the most basic of science you are denying. Layers help!

Is it meaningful enough that they are making it policy to recommend everyone do it? No.

But does that mean an 80 year old man whose job requires him be out there and in potentially very vulnerable scenarios should not take that extra measure? Again, NO, unless you are an idiot looking for something to cry about.
01-28-2021 , 09:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by revots33
More is better obv but at some point it becomes difficult to breathe.

If we had an adequate supply of n95 masks from the beginning, deaths would be far lower. The original "expert" advice, which was NOT to wear masks at all - that they would do more harm than good - was based 100% on a fear of a run on n95s, leaving none for front line healthcare workers.
No it wasn't. It was based on the science which shows masks don't work at the population level, and an abundance of bureaucratic caution in not recommending something without hard evidence for its use. It was also because the cucksperts believed that asymptomatic spread was small (despite the data showing otherwise as explained in this thread at the time), hence the idiots believed it was enough that sick people mask up.

Basically philosophical incompetence from the experts plus evidence-reading incompetence.
Quote:
The advice bordered on malpractice imo. I get that there was a shortage, so it was a tough situation. But those lies from doctors undoubtedly led to deaths, which goes against the Hippocratic oath.
It simply didn't go down like this.
01-28-2021 , 10:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by revots33
But those lies from doctors undoubtedly led to deaths, which goes against the Hippocratic oath.
It's not a binary choice between causing or not causing deaths; it's a question of which deaths to accept, and what has the highest EV; so more like a train travelling fast towards a man tied to the track, and you have a lever to switch the train to another track, which has a different man tied to it.

But in the case of healthcare workers, it is higher EV to give them masks. If healthcare workers get COVID not only can they become sick or die themselves, but they cannot treat other patients.

If you had the lever, and had to choose between 1 or 2 people dying, I wouldn't begrudge you for choosing one, nor say it violates the Hippocratic oath.
01-28-2021 , 03:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lvr
so Fauci says wearing double masks is "common sense" now?

if 2 is better than 1 then maybe 3 is better than 3? what about 4?
01-28-2021 , 03:38 PM
That's next level classic. Is there anything these loser experts like Fauci and Birx didn't screw up and/or make worse? Disgusting.
01-28-2021 , 07:08 PM
I agree, scientists aren't allowed to change their minds. It just wouldn't be science if they could change their hypotheses based on empirical observation or conducting experiments. Idk what we would call a process like that, but it sure couldn't be science.

On the other hand, Tooth can change his mind three times per week about a subject and still be right about it every time. I'd like to see those cuck experts try to be so inconsistent and so right 100% of the time.
01-28-2021 , 07:20 PM
When all you have is sarcasm, strawmen and pathological lies ("3 friends in their early 20s unconscious on ventilators at the same time") to try and win the debate, you've lost the argument, son.

Mind changing is good when there's new evidence. Failing to apply the precautionary principle isn't. Rubbishing something that common sense says might help (the data was inconclusive on masks back then) was stupid, as evidenced by their position on masks now.

How is this so hard for you? How are you so ****ing stupid you can't understand this stuff?
01-28-2021 , 08:04 PM
To explain it to you tgiggity (because you're stupid), basically the expert morons misapplied the precautionary principle.

Evidence in February 2020: Masks may have some utility in stopping spread at the population level, but the evidence is weak and inconclusive

Precautionary principle 1: It's a terrible idea to wait for hard facts in the midst of a rapidly exponentially spreading pandemic. If something possibly works and isn't contraindicated and fits with common sense and is likely to do no harm, recommend it

Precautionary principle 2: Nothing should be recommended unless there is strong evidence for its efficacy, even if it's potentially life saving and harmless/common sense to use it. This preserves the reputation of science and bureaucracy and its careful procedures

They chose #2. This wasn't the only time they chose #2...the expert and bureaucratic class in the US repeatedly chose slow, ineffective procedure over a rapid response.

Example 1: They didn't parallelize test development in case one of them failed
Example 2: At the start of the pandemic risk horizon, they didn't allow private companies to make their own tests, preferring to ban them entirely and make their own (single, ultimately botched) test under Obama era pandemic protocols.
Example 3: After screwing up the test, they continued to argue before Congress that the tests still shouldn't opened up to the private sector.

So this is deep cultural incompetence in the practices of experts and left-wing bureaucracy, not a simple mind change as the evidence changed, which is of course reasonable and desired which is why you attempt to strawman that position like the dishonest loser you are.

And that by itself (going all in on masks based on a few confounded studies from wave 1, since fully contradicted by wave 2) was another cockup, hilariously.

You are too stupid to understand such things however, so you pathologically lie and make up strawmen instead to try and throw shade.
01-28-2021 , 08:10 PM
NY under-counted nursing home deaths by up to 50%, according to report New York State Attorney General Letitia James released today.



And who said this?
Quote:
Incompetent government kills people.
01-28-2021 , 08:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lvr
so Fauci says wearing double masks is "common sense" now?

if 2 is better than 1 then maybe 3 is better than 3? what about 4?
Did somebody forget that people need to breathe to survive?
01-28-2021 , 08:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
When all you have is sarcasm, strawmen and pathological lies ("3 friends in their early 20s unconscious on ventilators at the same time") to try and win the debate, you've lost the argument, son.

Mind changing is good when there's new evidence. Failing to apply the precautionary principle isn't. Rubbishing something that common sense says might help (the data was inconclusive on masks back then) was stupid, as evidenced by their position on masks now.

How is this so hard for you? How are you so ****ing stupid you can't understand this stuff?
****ing hilarious you are trying to dunk on "cuck experts" for "rubbishing" on masks when you are king of the anti-mask brigade
01-29-2021 , 10:24 AM
So any news on how quickly/easily the mRNA vaccines can be tweaked to handle new strains? I know that Moderna supposedly had a vaccine in a few hours after the Chinese posted the genetic code of the original Wuhan strain.

Word is that the vaccines are less than 50% effective against the South African strain, which may require adjustments to the vaccines.

I also noticed Moderna stock way up recently, perhaps because the strains present additional opportunities for their platform.

      
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