Have you guys seen his bearish video, watched it early this year, he makes some good points IMO

http://carlicahn.com/

lol, well said. I didn't respond to wealth$ (his "The Secret" and love of astrology no doubt had everyone laughing at him, my job is done), and now he's spamming the forum with his beginner-article-TA nonsense. 10+ posts in the trading thread in a night, all of them worthless. Guy is pure AIDS for this forum.
I love when people bring up arguments from months or years ago in unrelated threads.

The trouble with you, sir, is that you've learned a playbook, but fail to understand things from first principles. Thus things within that playbook you deem as correct, but correct ideas outside of your playbook make you think the person is wrong.

I was correct on two things you mentioned. Their impact is debatable, but the ideas themselves are correct. You were simply too stupid, too deep in your playbook, to understand them. I'll go back and bump the thread and explain them to you again, slowly.

The last 25-30 years is not the long run. It's a cherry pick by a someone who's learned a real estate playbook and thinks he understands something. You screw up basic analysis because you're either unable or unwilling to look at things from first principles. Moreover, we're at zero rates, which is excellent for real estate prices, and coming off very high rates in the start of the period mentioned, which was terrible for real estate prices. Further, rents as a percentage of wages have gone up, a lot, especially in the major cities that you mention:



This is not a sustainable trend. It can't go much higher. And yet it's driven a lot of the appreciation, especially in the big cities that you cite as having been good investments.

I explained to you in detail and from several angles why historical real estate appreciation can't continue at the rate it has in the long term. Median wage is an upper bound, something that doesn't exist on stocks, at least not for a long time. If you're not capable of understanding it, that's not my problem.

lol. Nice. As stated before, you strike me as a very miserable lonely person outside of here. I'm glad you can come onto this forum and unleash your frustrations onto somebody. Keep it coming.

Dude, this isn't personal. I couldn't care less about you. It's about the fact that you post absolute crap.

Like me or not, I've made a number of traders here into better traders by posting insightful ideas, and challenging their ideas and thinking. This is 2p2 and that's what we do. You crap-post beginner level technical analysis - the kind of stuff you can find on investopedia or Yahoo stock forums. For a bit of perspective, this is what you posted in a thread on Icahn predicting a stock market crash:

You're an idiot with a fragile ego and no insight whatsoever into trading. Stop posting your stream of consciouness nonsense (11 posts in the trading thread last night), and start thinking about how you can meaningfully contribute to making other people better traders or furthering analysis or presenting novel ideas. The fact that you can't do the latter at all (you lack the self awareness, and intelligence), makes you AIDS for this forum. Nearly everyone else has something meaningful to contribute.

I'll put you on ignore. I let you have the last word last time and you just kept going. I'll let you have it again - but don't take it as you "winning" and then go on a 11 post posting spree - including 5 in a row - about a single ******ed trade you made. The forum thanks you for not doing that again.

Wow, so I found the original thread. From six months ago. It was you who disappeared after I laid it all out. I guess you got owned there and couldn't reply to my devastating rebuttal, so you come back six months later in another thread.

For the real estate vs stock discussion that some are asking about, here is the original thread on stocks vs real estate (and thedude getting hit out of the park). Worth reading the whole thing if you're interested in the topic. Stocks are far better than real estate (except for the caveats I mention - namely, being poor and using an income to access credit). The last graph I posted in that (and the fact that house prices *must* track inflation, while stocks reliably follow the long run return on productive capital graph I posted above) ends the debate imo.

Nice. Clearly only one of us here is.losing and if you can't see who it is idk what to tell you. Good job.

A short-term, desperate surge of unconventional junk 10 years after the peak of conventional production and due 100% to easy credit, which has now ended.

Nevermind that U.S. consumption has been largely flat for years, please cite your claim. It'll be hard to "consume" more when domestic production is suddenly down 750,000 already and drillers are going broke, left and right.

Yes, by desperately borrowing in $30 billion chunks. This passage doesn't help your "no problem" thesis.

I'm broke? LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!! .... Oops, nope.

But why am I not surprised you'd conjure up personal assessments out of thin air? You apply the same strategy to every aspect of this debate.

Do continue carrying the baton for the "no problem" camp while the world remains mired in perpetually downward trending growth forecasts with no end in sight. Troll.

wrong way brother

heres your post in a different thread
heres the thread where you go of in to dream world and give another "thesis" about your backwards pov on gentrification. i kindly explain this to you but obviously it doesnt cause you to pump the brakes. i will then go on to explain how your "thesis" on 3D printing houses counters the concept of gentrification as well as the concept we all know, understand, and agree on, that land appreciates not the improvements. thats why gentrification is a real thing, land appreciates

i then go on to dispel the other myth you fabricated about 3D housing. its not going to be relevant any time soon. we already have factory housing and its essentially the same scenario. expensive to build the factory, a logistical nightmare to ship houses, expensive to build houses that are capable of being shipped, still requires labour to ship and assemble houses, plus a list of other issues. it has it place though, but how does change anything, including the current factory housing industry? 3D is irrelevant

did explaining any of that cause you to pump the brakes or acknowledge any flaws? of course not. always-right-on-the-internet-guy never pumps the brakes


response to wealth$ itt
lol read what you just said to wealth$

yes tooth. i failed to talk you out of your backwards pov on gentrification or your false and irrelevant assumptions while have i told you that youre the classic always-right-on-the-internet-guy. i didnt respond to your wall of text that just stepped on the gas when you needed to pump the brakes. we've already established who i am dealing with and now you have moved on to this amazing new thesis. since we are talking about real estate terms your "thesis" is built on a foundation of tooth picks. the thread had emptied out and now im in a room with the always-right-on-the-internet-guy

solid foundations here champ. none of your "thesis" explains why this hasn't and doesn't play out in reality. shortcut, because its fabricated nonsense orbiting around your ego. the fact that you even inserted that quote is just silly

definitely out of the park champ. high five

why dont you break the internet and backtrack on the two blatantly obvious flaws i pointed out in your understanding of the market? show us youre not the always-right-on-the-internet-guy

heres what i do find interesting about the S&P vs rental real estate in major cities conversation

-i point out the real estate returns dont just beat the index, but dwarf it over the past 25-30 years
-the reaction is to deny this claim. go ahead, check it out
-the reaction is to come up with justification like interest rates
-this is cherry picking a time line. well 25-30 years up to today is "cherry picking" but its also the most recent history and 25-30 years is essentially peoples investing lifetime
-but its not going to do this moving forward

ok im not saying this will continue, im pointing out a reality. its quite a large blind spot people have imo. its weird and hardly a coincidence when you point this out to a crowd of people in finance that they react this way. lets not pretend people knew or understood this dirty little secret. why dont people act interested in the idea they just learned something vs defensive about it? ego? instead of jumping to reason why this may have just been interest rates or it cant continue this way, wouldnt it be more productive to take this new info and learn how and why so many large real estate markets had investment properties dwarf the S&P over the last 25-30 years?

moving forward, maybe some markets will outperform and maybe some wont. maybe understanding what happened in the past will help you decide moving forward. what we get here is insta-skepticism and defensive comments. a protection of your previous perceptions being right moving forward, even though there was a clear blind spot in the past. i think an objective person would look at my claims and be interested, not defensive

I'm happy to discuss it, but take it to the housing thread? I even linked it for you. Here it is again.

It's off topic here, and kind of weird that you still have a hardon about it and bring it to this thread when you simply walked away from the other one. Let's discuss real estate vs the stock market in the real estate vs the stock market thread.

I'm enjoying the way you guys are ruining OP's thread by carrying out personal vendettas against each other.
carry on...

Well, at least I learned something today, and that is where Wealth's sn and avatar comes from, i.e. the law of attraction. I had ex who believed that and she was bonkers. She kept telling me she was going to win the lottery one day.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G925A using Tapatalk

I always knew there was something to the law of attraction but I couldn't get fully behind it because I didn't understand why it worked. Then I learned about our conscious and subconscious minds. The Power of Your Subconscious Mind by Joseph Murphy immediately started changing my life for the better. One of the reasons your ex may have left you is because she thought you were negative. I could never be with somebody who doesn't agree how powerful our minds are and that we can get whatever it is we want out of life. I'm grateful I have an amazing wife that supports me and see's all of that good stuff through the same lense. If people read that and like it, next book I would recommend for more self development is Master Key to Riches by Napoleon hill and then Think and Grow Rich

Lol, two wrong assumptions in the same sentence. Hopefully, your trading isn't as awful.

One of the reasons you might believe in the Secret, astrology and TA is because you have a learning disability. Anyway, I'm not responding to this anymore, thread is really turning to ****.

You being a negative person wasn't an assumption judging by what you write on here. My assumption of your gf leaving you was because you said she thought the secret was important. I apologize if that rubbed you the wrong way I honestly thought you wrote that in the previous post. Sry

I lied, one last post on this topic...

That didn't rub me the wrong way. What did/does pisses me off is stupid people/posts/assumptions, especially if that stupidity backed with a high level of conviction. If that's my weakness, I'll take that weakness over being stupid.

And no, I'm not a negative person. It's like when fish think I'm an aggressive player because I raise their limps or 3 bet light for value.

Our definitions of negative are clearly very different, lol.

Good job to all the weak minded people on here that like to do the name calling that's great. Your clearly a very positive minded individual.......

People's opinions of me on a forum are meaningless. And even above that, people's opinions are meaningless in general.

All that matters is what the individual believes in his/her own mind. GL to you with not being negative sir.

There's no doubt that it takes a person of above average intelligence to understand these concepts....

Our entire economy is in the biggest fed induced bubble in history right now. Bigger than the housing and tech bubble combined. Look what happened to the price of gold when the fed raised interest rates a miniscule .25%..... Gold skyrocketed almost 300$. And .25% is still basically 0% and air started coming out at a fast pace.

Silver wasn't a bubble. If the fed didn't step in and shower us with cheap money silver would probably be 100$ right now... Gold would probably be at $3,000. Gold and silver are just gold and silver with no counter party liability that always maintain their value. The dollar price of silver is irrelevant.

All the drugs that the fed has been administering to the economy has only tricked the market into thinking we have been in recovery but we haven't been in a recovery, it has been a fake recovery. All the fed did was delay the continuing of the 2008 recession...and when the drugs stop... The recession will continue and will be a lot worse because all we have done is add more and more debt to fuel consumption.

+1

QE definitely is the only reason the market is where it is right now. It will be interesting to see what kind of drug the Fed tries to give the market after the next big correction/crash. Negative rates won't do it imo

You're a liar. It went up 15% or around $150 if you look 2 months past the rate hike.

If you consider the 2 weeks after the rate hike it basically went nowhere ... until **** went nuts in China after the new year.

there was no "$300 skyrocket".

Right now gold is about 5% higher than it was trading 2 weeks before the rate hike ..... well knock me over with a feather cause that's a big ****ing rocket.

ya missed that, gold is still outperforming the market this yr, but it's only up roughly 70 points I believe

I said almost $300... Ok I was embellishing some. But when I said skyrocketed up I was talking about the first 2 months of the year.

All the genius hedge funds were all long financials and tech and they the only thing they were short was gold. Financials and tech get hammered and the one thing they shorted in gold went up after the hike.

The fed has screwed up the entire economy. 7 years of a so called recovery and the economy can't even take a pathetically small .25% interest rate hike?

Once we started all this QE we screwed ourselves because now we are stuck. Either the market forces up interest rates and we default on debt.... Or we launch more QE and have a currency crisis.

All the QE and artificially suppressed 0% interest rates for almost a decade now must end in economic ruin, one way or the other.

The dollar value of gold only represents the unstableness of the dollar. Big deal... the dollar gained some temporary strength. The dollar price of gold is meaningless. Gold is money and a store of value. It isn't an investment.

China, India, Russia, and central banks around the world aren't loading up on gold like crazy because they care about the dollar value of gold. They are loading up on it with their increasingly worthless dollars because gold is a constant store of value, just like its been for thousands of years.

more lies.

Also not sure what you're playing at homie but FB and GOOG have been beauties for my portfolio.

Not playing in the overvalued fed induced propped up stock market that is going to crash.

Mostly in gold and silver. You know... Real wealth not paper wealth.

So this is the second thread gone to **** that Wealth participated in... Please, guys, NO MORE.