http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/04/druck...-own-gold.html

Not a gold bug but Drunkenmiller is hardly some dude with canned goods and a youtube channel.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/a-bearis...ain-1465429163

Soros also looks to be getting in line behind Icahn.

Please ignore Rand, dont even try and understand him, he is either an idiot or a troll. The same goes for numerous others who post here and other investment forums.

I will give you some simple rules

1) Ignore any banks "advice"
2) Ignore numerous posters on here/the rest of the internet
3) Ignore anyone that tells you there is going to be a crash. There will of course be another equity crash in the future but nobody can tell when. Anyone who tries to tell you otherwise is either trying to sell you something, trying to get you to click their link/buy their newspaper or just trying to sound smart. They have no idea and if they believe what they are writing they are not smart.
4) Ignore financial "advisors"

There will of course be many crashes through out your investment time period. If you choose a less risky portfolio you will have a smoother ride but less long term EV. If you went 100% equities you could lose 50% in a year but have the highest expected return over a long timeframe.
Don't worry about dividends yet. Some stocks pay a dividend some don't.
You will most likely end up buying some retail investment funds through a platform where you can choose to have your dividends automatically reinvested to buy more shares. Compounding is real and is what will make you rich. Have a look at this. Even at the worst possible entry dates there is not a single 30 year period where you would have lost money as long as you had stayed invested the entire time
https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/

That is fair to say, I certainly do. But the market could also go up...

What I think will happen is, in a general sense, the Fed doesn't raise rates till next year (if even then...) and we have a big rally for the next 3-9 months. Of course with some ST corrections along the way.

But it is hard to say, things certainly are extended here.

If I were to take a multi month vacation and want to start trading again when I got back. I would just leave the money in my trading account...

Of course, I wouldn't have all of my assets in my trading account. But that is the most upfront and honest answer to your question (But also, I probably wouldn't leave without putting a position on).

So what is your actual portfolio now? Seeing as 100% equities is "******ed" and clearly you think you can predict what the S&P is going to do from here, post it and we will see how you do.

... but they can't take your guns.

Hang in there brother. The end time is near.

real estate
precious metals
cash (i am flat over the weekends typically)
BTC

It's funny, till its not...

You do realize this is pretty much what the American Revolution was about. I am pretty sure if we hadn't beaten King George you'd still be shipping your property to London...

Ok Rand, so Sooted has pretty much summed up where I'm at. I have read around these forums, especially the "Where to invest X" thread, and come to the conclusion that my best bet is Index investing and trying to match the market, whilst diversifying to differing degrees throughout my life based on my age and therefore risk tolerance. I figure that whilst I'm pretty smart, I'm probably not smart enough to beat the market and even if it turns out I am, it will take far too long and far too much work for it to be worth it for me. Therefore, my best bet it to let my investments compound, reinvest the dividends, and then when I reach my goal I can decide how I want to invest it for an income stream (RE, which I'm surprised you suggest you have actually Rand, considering the break downs of how much it costs to maintain and the lower than stock returns it has provided or things like Blue Chip stocks which I can receive reliable dividends from).

What I don't understand is why you believe this to be incorrect? Given my goal is to grow my capital to the point where I can start thinking of having an income stream from my investments, isn't this the most proven method for somebody in my position to achieve my goals?

It is not such a bad plan. The problem is what I assume to be most people's execution. To put it simply, what you pay for something matters. Don't be price agnostic.

Warren Buffet does buy and hold. But the businesses he buys have cashflow. And he is not constantly buying small businesses at their ask (just because he has money to spend), he is looking for deals.

And Scooted is wrong, there are certainly people who can tell when a crash is coming. It is not like in 1998 they predicted a crash in 2008 because of some astrological signal.

It is more like they are professionals, plugged into the markets all day and they see the warning signs. They are looking for them. And eventually they become too loud to ignore.

Kyle Bass is famous for having made a killing on sub-prime for instance. It is about being positioned, and it is about probability.

A good analogy is to baseball (that I think applies to cricket).

Price is like a pitch and you, as an investor, are like a batter. Traditional buy and hold is like saying, they throw (bowl) it too fast, I can't discern if it is going to be a strike or not, so I might as well swing at every pitch. I mean, I've got this bat, what else I am here for?

But if you watch baseball (or cricket) batters do not swing at every pitch. That is because it pays to be selective.

I mean most pitches are strikes, and most of the time the stock market goes up. So why don't I just swing at them all?

A lot of the people who timed the crash right are also the same people who have missed out on the massive rallies before and after the crash and therefore are losing to the market over the long run.

Just look at charlatans like Peter Shiff. These are your people Rand.

Peter Schiff (think there is a "C" in there) is not bad...he's also not great.

I don't particularly associate myself with him. But, at least he is an "Austrian."

The difference between Peter Schiff and Kyle Bass is pretty big. Schiff is basically a salesman and Bass is basically a trader (more like a Hedge Fund manager these days).

Trader's didn't miss that move. Idealogues did.

I assume these are among the richest people in the world. They'd have to be, right?

IDK, to me the richest are captains of industry.

Buffet, Gates and Slim.

Musk, Suckerberg, Paige & Brin.

Oil Barrons & Sultans.

After that, there are hedge fund and trader billionaires no doubt. But it seems to me good traders are more in the $10M - $100M range than $1B range. $100M is a lot of money, but there is nearly $1B difference between $100M and $1B.

So to my mind, no that is not how I think of them. But then again, you could say someone with $100k is among the richest in the world. There are many people in China, India, and Africa living off of next to nothing.

It just seems odd that people who can time the market aren't in the $10billion range. At least.

I don't know how you all don't go insane talking to Rand.

Rand: Yeah people can predict crashes
Didace: otally on point with his richest people question
Rand: Let me tell you who I think the richest people in the world are. Also if you have 100k you're rich.

How do you read that exchange and not throw your laptop out the window? lol.

If you could actually predict crashes with accuracy, on the first crash I'm guessing you make 5-10M if you've had a few years to get organized (if not more?). On the second crash you're running that up into the billions with the lead time you've got. On the 3rd crash you can get any amount of investment capital from others based on the fact that you're the guy worth 1B who predicted the last 2. By the time you're in your late 50's obviously you're one of the richest 100 people on the planet. If you can live to see the 4th crash then you'd become #1. Plus I'm not even considering the amazing ability to predict the crash, profit from it, and then roll that into all the new juicy long positions all the way up to the next crash.

^ No **** eh. Think of all those smart ppl grinding a 6 figure income as doctors/lawyers/engineers who are still wage and mortgage slaves who could all be billionaires if fading crashes was as easy as Rand makes it seem.

Goldbuggery / doomerism is 99% guys. That right there should be a tell that something is ****ed up. It's also a ****ty way to live your life and is not a good way to make relationships (friends and significant others) .... like Drake said YOLO.

Its not really worth anyones time to argue with him. It is a shame when some beginner investor reads his authoritative sounding posts and believes that **** though.

This is because Rand is not a fidicuary of YOUR money. This is what he would do with HIS money, and then assume that by merely writing a paragraph, you would realize an epiphany of enlightenment.

Really,the BFI forum not the best place for investment advice for newbies because they is no way for a beginner to separate the tiny nuggets of gold flakes from the low grade ore here. It's really more of a place to bounce ideas for people who are already familar on the mechanics of investing/trading than a place to start research in the beginning stages of your investing career.

My advice for your is that instead of investing based on your resources, invest based on your knowledge and desire to accumulate largely worthless knowledge that will be detrimental to your returns.

A total beginner should Vanguard Target Date, set it and forget it, you will do no worse, nor better than the market.

After about 10 years of hard core studying up and seeing 2 bull/bear market cycles you can probably invest on your own.

Long wait eh? For the average investor, learning a little will actually decrease your returns, cause you're going to trade more often and be subject to the friction of bid/ask spread and commissions, very difficult to overcome. You may get luck early on and due to your sudden realization of your "geniusness" (this investing thing is easy!) start going on margin or learning about options (without the math) and well.... blow up.

Every new trader thinks they are the $hit and can beat the market and it's mostly based on positive variance on a small sample set. Don't fall into this trap, you are not special. By definition, going on a poker forum (even if just one point of research) to during the beginning stages of your research proves it.

Vanguard target date.

If a newbie can't tell within ten posts that rand is off his meds, I don't feel the least bit sorry for them if they piss away their assets on gold and Bitcoins.

We have reputable posters from other areas of 2+2 in this thread saying they agree with the predictions a crash is about to happen and bigging up bitcoins. It's possible to be smart but be terrible about finances and investments.

Vanguard target date presents its own problems. I don't know where you are based but investing in the UK and USA is completely different with many factors contributing to the difference.

I like Vanguard products and I use a couple (and have recommend some to family where it has been appropriate) but they are not perfect by any stretch. The UK stock market is a pretty terrible one to index, historically returns have lagged due to such a heavy weight of oil companies, miners and banks. Vanguard global funds sold to retail UK investors (such as retirement date and lifestrategy) OVERWEIGHT the UK, quite substantially. They also underweight EM. You will not get an exact global market return. They also do not contain any specific indirect property or smaller companies allocation. Almost always they are not the best choice, in my opinion.

P.S. I do love Vanguard and am glad they are in the UK, but a DIY investor should be very aware of how some of the generically recommended single solution funds they offer lack (and they do lack, quite substantially if you have a reasonable amount of money and timeframe).

For someone who has only a small amount (<10k) of money to invest and who absolutely never wants to rebalance or touch their investments, I would say they should consider Vanguard retirement/lifestrategy with an appropriate risk balance. For someone with more I would recommend a lot more reading/understanding if they want to DIY.

LOL, forgive me for being logical and thorough without being conclusive and exhaustive. Apparently I need to spell it out for you.

My point was that in order to have a conversation about who falls amongst the richest in the world we must first define what we mean by amongst the richest in the world.

In my mind the answer is no, most traders are not among the richest in the world. When I hear that I think billionaire. Billionaires are typically innovators like Bill gates.

However someone else may consider someone with $100k in assets net debt as "among the richest in the world."

So until we agree on what we mean by that term it is relative to each and everyone's own personal definition.

I understand that the difference between the relative and the absolute may be a little technical and challenging for someone like you to understand. But I think that if you try, just a little, might be able to do it.