^Perfect.

Maybe it's just me but short seems the dumbest way to play this

Spread it among hypergrowth stocks

seems even with no idea what you are doing it is +life ev to try. if you don't try, you waste away for 30 years in prison with not much to keep your mind occupied. then you're out of a prison as a shell of a man at 60.

alternatively you can try. you can have fun researching. spend your time thinking and hopefully get out earlier. worst case, you **** up and are in prison for life. that's not much worse than being there doing nothing till 60.

I prefer the question written as follows.

You are approached by a crazy billionaire. He says to you: I will put 100K in an Etrade account, and you must get the balance to an amount. Until you are at that amount, you will be chained in a cell in my basement. If you reach that amount, you will be set free with the money. The minimum amount you can select is $200K.

What amount do you agree to reach?

200k. Why do I feel like I'm failing at reading comprehension, or you've failed to properly explain the scenario?

Lol. Why would you pick above 200k?

Maybe if you like getting raped by a billionaire while chained in their basement?

Just to spice it up. The crazy Billionaire also warns you, "The amount you choose divided by 1 million is the probability that I won't cut off your dick and make you eat it. So take that into consideration as well."

McAfee is making basement bets now?

Thread deteriorated rapidly the last few posts. Almost exactly the plot of this book, by the way:

At a minimum, knowing that your one chance to get out early is to trade, you should be studying and looking for opportunities.

What is interesting, is that the dynamics totally change if you reduce the sentence. If the sentence is 15 years, you will get out at 45, still prime years, all things considered. You would be rolling the dice on your life trying to get out before then, and would almost certainly be better off biting the bullet and not going for it.

There is a number (years of entence at 30) that has to be the number where you just cannot risk ever making a single trade. Even if you were planning on never making a trade, you would still be wise to study, just in case you came up with a huge mispricing, of if the was a huge market downturn early in your sentence.

The key to the test is the penalty for getting it wrong. In real life, people shoot off 100k on publicly traded securities....just because there is a flashing stock price every day that is dancing around. Those same people would never ever give 100k to someone in their town to invest in a business, unless it was a thought out business plan with a clearly identified edge. So, there is a huge difference between the way most people invest in stock, and how they invest in regular businesses that are not publicly traded, which is fascinating (though a bit of a derail from the gist of the thread).

$99,999.99

Free that afternoon with a cool hundo for my troubles.

Lol at you. It's 200k minimum

Some more info about this random topic:

1. Average Life Expectancy in USA in 2018: 78.7 years old for males
http://fortune.com/2018/02/09/us-lif...dropped-again/

2.Objectives. I investigated the differential impact of the dose–response of length of stay on postprison mortality among parolees.

Methods. Using 1989–2003 New York State parole administrative data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics on state correctional facilities, I employed multinomial logistic regression analyses and formal demographic techniques that used the life table of the populations to deduce changes in life expectancy.

Results. Each additional year in prison produced a 15.6% increase in the odds of death for parolees, which translated to a 2-year decline in life expectancy for each year served in prison. The risk was highest upon release from prison and declined over time. The time to recovery, or the lowest risk level, was approximately two thirds of the time served in prison.

Conclusions. Incarceration reduces life span. Future research should investigate the pathways to this higher mortality and the possibilities of recovery.

https://ajph.aphapublications.org/do...PH.2012.301148

"In the parole cohort she studied, five years in prison increased the odds of death by 78% and reduced the expected life span at age 30 by 10 years."
So yeah,
https://www.prisonpolicy.org/blog/20...fe_expectancy/


Sounds like pretty bad odds that someone starting a 30 year sentence at 30 even reaches 60. Like I said, I'm shorting 6 bankrupt companies hoping for 50% before a short squeeze happens, and I'll know whether I have to revert to spooning out concrete from my wall by the end of 2 years max.

Ooops.

AFAIK VIXY has never spiked 10x. Probably better to wait for a spike and then short TVIX but you could only do that with like 0.2-0.3x of your funds, otherwise chances to go bust would be astronomical (no margin trading as per OP)

I looked this up on amazon to read the reviews and had a mini heart attack when I thought I was auto-logged into my mom's amazon prime account. Phew. lol.

Good to have some numbers. I think you can't really deduce causation from this study though. Generally, I would think prison time is highly correlated with a number of other risky/life expectancy reducing variables. These other variables are not necessarily present in this prop bet situation.

this thread escalated quickly.

Also, apparently we should go back to 2014 and hire this dinosaur CEO of the largest trading firms on Wall Street....

You dont have to decide right away if you want to take the bet or not.

Take the first 2 years to read up on everything you can about investing/trading and to try out various strategys to see if you can find anything that gives you a consistent edge.

Then start real trading only when you are sure you can do it.

ultra high risk / reward plays with a suicide backup plan

The more I think about this the more I think swing trading on the few biggest opportunities each week, for all of your stack, is the way to go. Should be able to average 1%/week and get out in 6-10 years depending on the market.