yep

any thoughts on this?

i am not surprised they would do a pool like this to win those btc cus people are up against some really big fish

Ask a question

give some thoughts about it

The 5 % fee is steep. Nice touch that they donate 10% of your money to the EFF. It makes the 5% fee for non accredited investors slightly less irritating.

They must be thinking the final sale price will be a good bit less than market price.

Personally, I wouldn't know how to construct a bid for this. You probably wouldn't want to sell them all right away upon purchase. The time between placing a bid and receiving the coins could be substantial. Bitcoin has been known to be quite volatile in price. Maybe bidding 50% of market would be ok?

Before we have the next round of 51% attack and ghash debate, everyone should read this: https://blog.ethereum.org/2014/06/19/mining/

So they are using this as a vehicle to gain new investors.


OK. Have a question now or?

Disagree.

If these coins were individually auctioned they would easily sell at a premium for the same reasons why people made tons of transactions at block halving from 50 to 25.

You can look at this through multiple lenses.

Maybe SM can't afford to buy the bitcoin

Maybe SM is hedging itself against possible unforseen auction conditions

Maybe SM just wants to reach new investors looking into bitcoin

Maybe SM thinks the pool of bidders will be particularly small

Maybe SM plans on buying them all but don't have enough capital.

Maybe buyers want to hide behind SM? If I was buying those coins I 1000% would rather do it through SM than to have my name in the press.

You get the point....



But seriously, who cares????

Good laugh. If I wanted 51% of the network it would only cost me 15million USD.

http://blog.coinbase.com/post/89405189782/its-bits


Something as a community we should be pushing moving forward. It has real and serious implications for the future, and I hope it becomes standardized.

There is a real barrier to those new to bitcoin in understanding that having less than 1 bitcoin really means nothing wrt your ability to transact.

Having "1 bit" is far easier to understand than having 1/1,000,000 btc or 0.000001 btc.

congrats to Just-Dice. 1 Yr anniversary today.

invested : 52,473.86642543 (~32,000,000 usd)
bets : 1,262,020,440
wagered : 5,315,813.42771460
profit (%) : 0.357924%
profit (btc) : 19,026.58641101 (~11,400,000 usd)

investing one yr ago would've yielded a 44% ROI

HOLY **** really 11m profit from a dice game? god people are degens i wonder how much swc has ever profited

People didn't lose 11M people lost 19k bitcoin. A lot of the bitcoins were lost when the price was lower. Not all of these people who have held onto these bitcoins untill now and not all people who gained the profits have held the bitcoins untill now.

^^^

that's some pretty solid party poopin'

What are your predictions for the auction? How will winning bid prices relate to market price? What effect will it have on the market? What's the EV of participating in SecondMarket's bid given a 5% fee?

I think the coins will sell cheaper then most people think. If there is a lack of buyers, which there very well may be, I could see 50-60% off market price. There really isn't a huge incentive for people to come in bidding at 10-20% discounts.

Common sense would say prices would fall after the auction, but it almost seems so obvious it very well may not happen. I'm guessing anybody who wants to buy btc is waiting until after the auction so there may be a surge of buyers to buy up the new inventory.

I think if the auction bidders get a steep discount, they will be more likely to flip right away.

In the end, I think any dip that may be had will be very short lived and we will be back about where we are near $600 a couple weeks after.

I doubt that the coins will be at such a large discount , this is practically one of the only opportunities to buy such a large amount of coin and not move the market, there are even fewer early adopters with that number of coin who would be willing to rid that many BTC at once

IMO I wouldn't be surprised if some of the groups involved in the auction who already hold a large number of coins would sell a couple thousand BTC to lower the price and scoop up the auctioned coins at a larger discount we've pretty much already seen the affect of the auction with the recent 10% dip

If it went lower in the short term I'd still not be surprised and then after auction is over the price to continue upward , whoever is buying the coins is probably for a longer term play the lack of liquidity and ability to sell such a large quantity of coins would make a quick flip incredibly difficult,

Yea my gut is that there is prob quite a bit of value in this...

why does everyone think there will be a huge discount? just because it's an auction and because they are selling bitcoins in bulk?

i won't be surprised if it goes for over market price. a lot of the bidders will be institutional investors who understand that if bitcoin were to make it as a world currency, it could be easily worth $10k per. some bidders will also be people with money due to the minimum deposit required to participate. they may also understand that bitcoin could be easily worth $10k per and throw money at it without actually understanding the technology. secondmarket's offering weakens this point somewhat because it makes the market more open to smaller investors. i would really like to see what strategy they going to use because they can only bid once and they will have to reach collective agreement somehow. the strongest argument for these bitcoins going above market price is the fact that it's a sealed bid auction. you may only get one chance to get this many bitcoins off the market, you're up against bidders who understand the potential returns if the technology succeeds, so you have to make it count.

There was an article on CoinDesk where someone involved with the auction stated that he thought there would be massive sell pressure on the day of the auction.

I don't know the EV of participating ofc but I imagine it would largely depend on the amount you're after and the potential of that amount moving the market.

Imo there's a good possibility of them being sold at greater then market assuming a fair auction...yes US Marshalls are human but gotta be some chance that wasn't a mistake...

Let's put it into perspective. 30k legitimate without a doubt coins open to international closed bidding where the corollary is a relatively thin market.

We don't know anything of maneuvering or price stalling manipulating etc in the open market. We know nothing of activity after the auction etc.

Some institutions may simply see this auction as a another piece of a larger puzzle.

If they do go above market it could be the spark for a summer rally if there will be one.

Yea it seems to me like your downside in general at taking a 100k flyer with SM is well protected (could go under market, going over could trigger a rally, can't go THAT much over -- it's just not THAT many coins compared to say bitstamps 24h volume or mined coins hitting market).

I got some more info on the bidding process but am boarding a flight now. You give SM a buy order price and they fulfill based on how many blocks they win and your order's rank in their book.